NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Well this officially breaks the streak of nothing but fugly systems in the Atlantic Basin and deep tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 RECON found extrapolated pressure just above 966mb - obviously the actual dropsonde will probably be a touch higher. Also had an unflagged 92kt reading as they got close to the center. Let's see what the 'sonde shows. That would be a steep drop in pressure since the 5am advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 971mb & 105mph on the 8:00 am EDT advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, NavarreDon said: 971mb & 105mph on the 8:00 am EDT advisory. I think we can definitely label this as RI. From Tropical Storm to borderline major hurricane in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Hotness It is amazing to me how, in the face of stiff southwesterly shear, Matthew continued to intensify and do so rapidly. If the shear ever were to relax, this could get really nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, rockchalk83 said: It is amazing to me how, in the face of stiff southwesterly shear, Matthew continued to intensify and do so rapidly. If the shear ever were to relax, this could get really nasty. I'm worried for Jamaica. The 06z HWRF and GFDL would both put Kingston into the Northern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 What a turn of a events, RI, nonstop model us hits to non stop ots...let's see if there's a trend back west but atm models really locking in on OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 99 kts in the NW eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Well this officially breaks the streak of nothing but fugly systems in the Atlantic Basin and deep tropics. But not the nearly 11 year streak since a major has made landfall in the US. Don't see any features to change that on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Latest pass. They missed on first try, turned back southwest and tried again. Nice winds in the NW eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Could be Jamaica's worst hit since Gilbert.....which underwent RI just AFTER crossing over the island.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could be Jamaica's worst hit since Gilbert.....which underwent RI just AFTER crossing over the island.... Following this for one of my co workers. She's from Jamaica and all of her family is there. I'm hoping for a miss at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 What'd I give to have a house in the south side of Jamaica this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That NW quadrant has consistently been the fiercest part of the storm, even when convection wasn't present. Not sure how often that happens. The NW quadrant is the right front for this storm, so for a westward moving storm it's not rare. It is a little weird that it had the strongest winds when there was no convection though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Cat 3 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Models may be better with track but they sure missed this RI. 970 mb readings were forecast to occur much farther north than present indications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Could be Jamaica's worst hit since Gilbert.....which underwent RI just AFTER crossing over the island.... This could be an ugly hit for them and Eastern Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 30 minutes ago, iceman56 said: But not the nearly 11 year streak since a major has made landfall in the US. Don't see any features to change that on this one. Baby steps. Most the systems that have made it to the Western Caribbean in recent years have either gone into Central America, Mexico or OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Ominous view of the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Down to 969mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Models may be better with track but they sure missed this RI. 970 mb readings were forecast to occur much farther north than present indications. Models generally do a poor job with intensity forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Whats the link to the rapid scan refresh visible satellite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Tightly clustered now for a NNE movement to commence once North of the Bahamas. With the GFS and ECMWF showing similar solutions it's hard to argue against the track consensus at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Is recon heading home? They made their left turn really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 IMO, this will end up either making LF in Florida, or further west....despite the model consensus ATT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Reaching Cat 5 in the next day or so, should be no surprise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: What makes you think that? Previous history with models (yes, some 10-15 years ago)...with TC's/TS's/H's tracking through the C. Car.....for whatever reason, time and again, the models seem(ed) to always have a bias to turning these systems too early as they reach the western most portion of the STR. I'd look for the model consensus to start shifting westward over the next day or two...along with the official NHC track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Previous history with models (yes, some 10-15 years ago)...with TC's/TS's/H's tracking through the C. Car.....for whatever reason, time and again, the models seem(ed) to always have a bias to turning these systems too early as they reach the western most portion of the STR. I'd look for the model consensus to start shifting westward over the next day or two...along with the official NHC track... You still think it goes sharply out to sea from there or just goes inland north into the Mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You still think it goes sharply out to sea from there or just goes inland north into the Mid Atlantic? Still way too early to speculate on the path after a W/C. Cuba/S. Florida impact....the synoptic setup to the north certainly isn't being modeled consistently enough to even "guess" at 6-7 day lead times, the eventual interaction/track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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