SN_Lover Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Oval eye. Not good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Matt looks better, but he still needs to reorganize that eyewall. Those storms need to make their way around south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Lots of times convection looks great but unless an eye clears out i dont expect much. this could alot like 1979 david for FLA. nuisance, but not disaster. well hopefully for fl your are right, but doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 looks sqaushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Lots of times convection looks great but unless an eye clears out i dont expect much. this could alot like 1979 david for FLA. nuisance, but not disaster. Go ahead and explain your prognostication on why you believe we won't have a category 3 or higher hurricane at some point during the next 36 hours. Are you just wishcasting? Nearly every tropical meteorologist in this thread forecasts intensification - steady or rapid. I'd like to know why your reasoning is valid over theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Eye poking out on WV. Ridiculous amount of wobbling with all of the asymmetric convective bursts going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Yeah, it might take a couple of hours, but we're getting there. New vigorous convective burst in the northern semi-circle certainly isn't going to hurt. No patience in most of this thread. Yea, this is fun to watch. Reminiscent of the early 2000's. Nope, unless it happens in 1 hour it's not going to happen lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: well hopefully for fl your are right, but doubtful David took a very similar path and never did anything in the bahamas other than maintain itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I think it has a very good chance at RI tonight. Conditions are about as ideal as it gets. (RI = wind definition; the strict pressure definition may be tough to get). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Someone please slap a 5 post limit on ldub now. Conditions at Georgetown, Bahamas before the station went down. Not sure of quality of measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 When do the new model tracks come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: When do the new model tracks come out? The tropical-models come out by 130-2 Zulu usually. Global model tracks much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Someone please slap a 5 post limit on ldub now. Conditions at Georgetown, Bahamas before the station went down. Not sure of quality of measurement. SFMR readings of 94kt in that area would seem to validate the ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 If people think the waters in the Bahamas can't support a Cat 5, take a look at this. Nearly 30˚C waters to 100 m in depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Haha, yeah. 300 feet of bathwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 33 minutes ago, David Reimer said: They might drop it down to 115 MPH, but I doubt they'll go below that for a few hours of lag in the wind about 30 hours before a major US landfall. 30 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Eyewall appears to have closed off on the latest radar frames. Obviously can't confirm w/o new RECON info. That said, i think we'll start to see the pressure drop now. 26 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Yeah, it might take a couple of hours, but we're getting there. New vigorous convective burst in the northern semi-circle certainly isn't going to hurt. No patience in most of this thread. All of the above. A little unsure why some are downplaying this. We are many hours away from landfall with decent intensification likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Hurricane chasing via computer models from the comfort of my own home when my home will barely see a cloud from this monster storm and my lawn is brown isn't so much fun. However; I have family in Fort Lauderdale.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The amount of people freaking out about how this is weakening or isn't going to intensify or FL is going to get off easy isn't absolutely insane. As someone who doesn't post much and comes on this forum to read useful information about a storm that to me seems like it's definitely at least slowly reoganizing, is really quite annoying. Seems like all that stuff should be in the banter thread not the thread people like me come on to read useful information about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: The amount of people freaking out about how this is weakening or isn't going to intensify or FL is going to get off easy isn't absolutely insane. As someone who doesn't post much and comes on this forum to read useful information about a storm that to me seems like it's definitely at least slowly reoganizing, is really quite annoying. Seems like all that stuff should be in the banter thread not the thread people like me come on to read useful information about the storm. I sent the mods a message this afternoon and asked that they delete 50% of the posts as they happen. I wish only Mets or people with real tropical weather experience could post right now. Getting so many posts from people who do not know what they are talking about and its really mucking up this thread. Just my opinion. If you don't have a real basis to backup what your posting, don't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 As a sidebar to the intensification debate does that current motion look a decent amount more North than West or just another wobble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I can't stop looking at this...Incredible to see GIS be put to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: I sent the mods a message this afternoon and asked that they delete 50% of the posts as they happen. I wish only Mets or people with real tropical weather experience could post right now. Getting so many posts from people who do not know what they are talking about and its really mucking up this thread. Just my opinion. If you don't have a real basis to backup what your posting, don't post. $25 an hour and ill delete posts as they happen. Now back to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jaguars said: As a sidebar to the intensification debate does that current motion look a decent amount more North than West or just another wobble? We've been seeing a lot of wobbles over the last few hours because of the new convection popping up around the eyewall. Overall it looks like we're just 'shaking back and forth' right now with those new updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, David Reimer said: We've been seeing a lot of wobbles over the last few hours because of the new convection popping up around the eyewall. Overall it looks like we're just 'shaking back and forth' right now. Gotcha, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, LovintheWhiteFluff said: wrong date and time Yea, i know. Go to the source of the image for the right image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Definitely an eye on IR now. Will probably be several hours before it clears out. That said, no doubt we've got a decent eyewall formed per sat/radar. May not be completely closed off, but there's some definite intensification going on. Shouldn't be long until the RECON obs bear that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Copy and pasting images no longer works here. You need to save the images and then upload them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 When someone posts an outdated map it doesn't help when multiple people repost it to tell them it is outdated. There are multiple mods in this thread. It will get taken care of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Latest IR shows a ragged but closed eyewall. No more of that ugly half ring BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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