ldub23 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 well, a 25 mb drop down to 936 would be bad indeed, but ill stick with 95 mph at most if it landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 strongest winds the new recon flight found in the eastern eye wall were only ~80kts at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHarr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Would a weaker than forecasted hurricane have any effect on its path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: You do realize that a gradual 20-30mb drop means a 930-940mb hurricane, yes? My point was that Matt's current structure does not support the idea of RI at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Eyewall is in much better shape... That's the structural change that's needed for potential explosive intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: well, a 25 mb drop down to 936 would be bad indeed, but ill stick with 95 mph at most if it landfalls. That would not be a 95 mph hurricane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, wxmx said: Eyewall is in much better shape... That's the structural change that's needed for potential explosive intensification. Would expect RI soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 IT is blossoming per rapid scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looking better. Probably a couple hours left to go. This incoming recon mission should start seeing some pressure drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Eyewall is close to closing off on the latest Cuba radar in the most recent frame. Yeah that hottower just needs to persist a bit longer and it's got a pinhole eye closed off. On the COD 2km nextgen you can see it evolving almost as nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: That would not be a 95 mph hurricane... im just saying 936 would be a bad cane. i dont expect that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 80 knots is it? this might be a weak cat2 now. Most probably a cat 2 now...from the earlier 105kts FL, they will probably put it at 95kts or so in the next advisory. This will most probably intensify quite rapidly overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: im just saying 936 would be a bad cane. i dont expect that though. Sorry, I thought you were implying that even if the pressure dropped to 936 mb it would still be a cat 2 at landfall. In any case, the 8 pm advisory is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 That would not be a 95 mph hurricane...And by definition of RI, if Matthew ever decides to undergo RI for a 24 hour period (which is still technically possible) it would drop its pressure down around 913mb. I don't expect 24 straight hours of RI but certainly a 930mb-ish Cat 3/4 at landfall would not surprise me in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, WaPo said: My point was that Matt's current structure does not support the idea of RI at the moment. You don't need RI to have a Cat 4 at landfall. It's starting from a strong base. RI is weeniesm. Whether this is a 930-940ish storm (obviously most likely scenario based upon historic landfalls) or the UBERSTORMOMG is more a matter of masturbatory natural disaster voyeurism. From a policy perspective, a solid Cat 4 landfalling in SE Florida is a mess even if it doesn't produce weather porn sat pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: strongest winds the new recon flight found in the eastern eye wall were only ~80kts at the surface. I only see 76kt...hopefully it keeps this up for FL as even those winds (east side) don't extend that far. Plus, it's progged to go right over bigger island which should inhibit. Looks like 95kt (110mph) on strong side, should be reduced here at 8pm. Would expect tomorrows progs to be reduced too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Recon today found a broadening gradient. That's why the winds have come down despite the overall pressure remaining low. I stated last night that land interaction over a lengthy mountainous geographic region of Cuba would disrupt the core. I thought it might even weaken down to a Cat 2, though I thought it would've been earlier.What folks should realize is that the pressure gradient has to tighten back up within the already expanded and broader lower background pressure. However, with sustained intense cells actually convecting within the main eye band, the pressure will start responding by falling. Key is that it will have to fall drastically to create a new tight gradient within the broader low pressure field. That takes time. But unfortunately it has that. Another 36 hrs or so of that.Several folks have called for a Cat 5 again already but it's incredibly difficult for a system with a broad gradient field to regain that. However, if the pressure begins to fall rapidly enough, the winds will respond significantly and I still think there is a high risk of this regaining Cat 4. If it goes into RI long enough and the pressure was to reach the 920s, then it could even push that upper Cat 4 to low Cat 5 boundary, though it has a lot of intensifying to undergo pressure wise before the winds could do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 They might drop it down to 115 MPH, but I doubt they'll go below that for a few hours of lag in the wind about 30 hours before a major US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: Most probably a cat 2 now...from the earlier 105kts FL, they will probably put it at 95kts or so in the next advisory. This will most probably intensify quite rapidly overnight. if the eye clears out i would agree. guess we can just wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: I only see 76kt...hopefully it keeps this up for FL as even those winds (east side) don't extend that far. Plus, it's progged to go right over bigger island which should inhibit. For those who don't know Bahamas geography, that "bigger island" is Andros which is basically a massive steaming swamp, and flat as a board. There's a reason it is barely inhabited, despite it's size. I wouldn't count on it posing too much of an impediment to intensification, or at least steady-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 115/962 @ 8:00pmSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: You don't need RI to have a Cat 4 at landfall. It's starting from a strong base. RI is weeniesm. Whether this is a 930-940ish storm (obviously most likely scenario based upon historic landfalls) or the UBERSTORMOMG is more a matter of masturbatory natural disaster voyeurism. From a policy perspective, a solid Cat 4 landfalling in SE Florida is a mess even if it doesn't produce weather porn sat pics. Oh totally. I can definitely see a CAT 4 at landfall. All I was trying to say was that people should temper their weenieism for RI, particularly for a CAT 5 storm by tomorrow. Of course, there's a possibility for that to happen, but the structure isn't there; it is getting there, but I don't believe it will be fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 234330 2306N 07540W 6979 02886 9763 +125 +125 165099 102 094 045 00 234400 2307N 07539W 6954 02946 9802 +118 +118 163101 102 092 032 00 234430 2309N 07537W 6960 02957 9825 +117 +117 157100 103 084 039 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY... ...IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Eyewall appears to have closed off on the latest radar frames. Obviously can't confirm w/o new RECON info. That said, i think we'll start to see the pressure drop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 are people looking at the same satellite? I am not sure if it will be RI type of intensification but it should get stronger over the next 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I would tend to side and believe the stallwarts in the forum, that and my eyes don't deceive. Whippy ding-dong in driving home a weakening cyclone, noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: are people looking at the same satellite? I am not sure if it will be RI type of intensification but it should get stronger over the next 30 hrs COD 2km products http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/. Now a warm spot in the center. Don't know if it will persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Eyewall appears to have closed off on the latest radar frames. Obviously can't confirm w/o new RECON info. That said, i think we'll start to see the pressure drop now. Yeah, it might take a couple of hours, but we're getting there. New vigorous convective burst in the northern semi-circle certainly isn't going to hurt. No patience in most of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: are people looking at the same satellite? I am not sure if it will be RI type of intensification but it should get stronger over the next 30 hrs Lots of times convection looks great but unless an eye clears out i dont expect much. this could alot like 1979 david for FLA. nuisance, but not disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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