PTC Matthew

[Windspeed]

Another pass just now, no pressure fall at all.

I was just about to post this. We're literally right on the edge. I can't imagine this kind of convective response right in the eye band without a resulting drop in pressure. It won't be much longer.

[wxmx]

Eyewall still needs some work

 

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

Eyewall still needs some work

 

I find it hard to believe that the western eye wall is really in that bad of shape based off of satellite, but oh well...

[packbacker]

4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

pressure stable, 961.6.

Wind field has really shrunk, the N/E hurricane winds only go out like 30-40 miles and TS are more condensed.  A big cat 3-4 hurricane tomorrow seems like a reach.  

[packbacker]

Highest winds on northern eyewall is 80kt.  This isn't a cat 3 anymore, not even close.  Good news for Bahamas and possibly FL. 

[Windspeed]

Watch for those intense convective cells in the eastern and northeastern wall to wrap. Also, glad we'll have frequent recon all the way through event.

[PaEasternWX]

6 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Highest winds on northern eyewall is 80kt.  This isn't a cat 3 anymore, not even close.  Good news for Bahamas and possibly FL. 

I would not say that. We all remember what happened to Matthew before. Went from 75 mph to 160 mph in around 24 hours. This storm has at least 30 hours left over water that happens to be very warm.

[jojo762]

Looks like Matthew is still having some structure issues. Going to be a few more hours (after convection wraps around the entire eye) until we see a resurgence of the winds.

[hlcater]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Watch for those intense convective cells in the eastern and northeastern wall to wrap. Also, glad we'll have frequent recon all the way through event.

I see what looks like 2 eyewalls in that image. Recon data fails to support this however.

EDIT: it also occurred to me that the outer eyewall would be a very large eye.

[Windspeed]

I see what looks like 2 eyewalls in that image. Recon data fails to support this however.

EDIT: it also occurred to me that the outer eyewall would be a very large eye.

We don't have a large outer eyewall yet. That's an organized band you're seeing. We don't have a sharp enough wind maxima to support anything more than that.

[packbacker]

3 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

I would not say that. We all remember what happened to Matthew before. Went from 75 mph to 160 mph in around 24 hours. This storm has at least 30 hours left over water that happens to be very warm.

Possibly but how often does a cane go from cat 5 to 2 back to a 5.  

[hlcater]

Just now, Windspeed said:

 

We don't have a large outer eyewall yet. That's an organized band you're seeing. We don't have a sharp enough wind maxima to support anything more than that.

 

I began making that assumption after considering what an obnoxiously large eye that would be. So thanks for pointing that out.

[Msalgado]

The next few frames may see an eye popping out.  There was some warming in the last IR image right where you'd want it to be.

[ROOSTA]

Some may find this interesting:

[Stormsfury]

38 minutes ago, Amped said:

Hugo recovered from being in a state similar to this so it can easily happen. If the core organizes, the environmental conditions will allow it to go from 960mb to 925mb fast, similar to what happened to Hugo and Charlie before landfall.

It took 2 days for Hugo to fully recover.  2 days after exiting Puerto Rico it was still 105mph.  The quick and sudden intensification occurred when Hugo crossed the Gulf Stream, along with a strong outflow channel on the western semicircle (aided with the cutoff ULL in the GOM).  

Matthew's outflow is fair at best, nowhere near the excellent presentation in the Caribbean Sea just 36 to 48 hours ago.  Will Matthew strengthen? Probably yes.  CAT 4? Possible.  Just because vigorous convection is exploding around portions of Matthew right now, there are other factors which just won't allow for it to reach CAT 5 again.  Only portion of the ATL basin that supports a potential CAT 5 is the Western Carribean.

 

[Windspeed]

Tropical novice question.....I've seen it before and is often the sign of an intensifying/reorganizing system, but what is the technical term for the "rays" that are appearing along the N and NE side of the convection there? Is that just outflow? Or a function of the outflow? Is there a technical term for it?

Sorry, I missed your question. That's just strong horizontal divergence. They look like fingers sometimes. It's essentially strong outflow jets above 250 mb from air forcing away from strong convection updrafts.

[HKY_WX]

Some crazy convection firing right now in the NE eyewall. 

[ldub23]

I think it got too messed up with land. Florida  might get  lucky and this thing  never  make  landfall if  only  by a few  miles. If its a weak cat2 just offshore the weak west side might  not  produce much in the way of damage.

[jh28wd40]

The pressure hasn't fallen yet, but looking at the cdo the cdo looks a lot more symmetrical, there's outflow jets along the north east to north/north west quadrants. The air is staring to expand and clear out above, I think it's actually looking a lot better than 10 hours ago. I don't know if we're entering a period of RI, but it's starting to get itself back together pretty quickly imo. 

[ldub23]

if  it  goes  over that  big  island it  might  not  be enough to weaken it but  it will still be  over  land. If this landfalls  in fla i think it  will come  in at  90-95 mph.

[olafminesaw]

[Ralph Wiggum]

Sorry, I missed your question. That's just strong horizontal divergence. They look like fingers sometimes. It's essentially strong outflow jets above 250 mb from air forcing away from strong convection updrafts.

Thank you for responding!

[Skel]

7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

if  it  goes  over that  big  island it  might  not  be enough to weaken it but  it will still be  over  land. If this landfalls  in fla i think it  will come  in at  90-95 mph.

This storm is about to explode, it has better chance of being 140+ mph than below 100 mph at landfall.

[bobbutts]

Rapidscan with more frequent updates to ir4 satellite: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

 

[ldub23]

ill wait till i see a  clear eye to say its  any stronger. i think it was hermine that came  into fla as a cat  1 last  month and  it  had a  clear as as a  cat1

[HKY_WX]

CDO is exploding currently. Haven't seen a bombing out of the colder cloud tops like this in quite sometime. Pressures/winds will start to respond very soon. ANyone know the recon schedule?

[HKY_WX]

Eyewall is close to closing off on the latest Cuba radar in the most recent frame.

[Ser Pounce]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

CDO is exploding currently. Haven't seen a bombing out of the colder cloud tops like this in quite sometime. Pressures/winds will start to respond very soon. ANyone know the recon schedule?

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE MATTHEW
       FLIGHT 0NE - TEAL 76         FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 06/1730Z,2030Z,2330Z      A. 07/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 2814A MATTHEW       B. NOAA9 2914A MATTHEW
       C. 06/1500Z                  C. 06/1730Z
       D. 25.7N 78.2W               D. NA
       E. 06/0700Z TO 06/2330Z      E. NA
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT          F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE- NOAA 43        FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
       A. 06/2000Z                  A. 07/O230Z,0530Z,0830Z
       B. NOAA3 3014A MATTHEW       B. AFXXX 3114A MATTHEW
       C. 06/1800Z                  C. 07/0015Z
       D. 26.0N 78.5W               D. 27.0N 79.2W
       E. 06/2000Z TO 07/0000Z      E. 06/0800Z TO 06/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000    FT       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49        FLIGHT SIX - NOAA 43
       A. 07/1200Z                  A. 07/0800Z
       B. NOAA9 3214A MATTHEW       B. NOAA3 3314A MATTHEW
       C. 07/0530Z                  C. 07/0600Z
       D. NA                        D. 27.8N 79.5W
       E. NA                        E. 07/0800Z TO 07/1200Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT SEVEN - TEAL 75
       A. 07/1130Z,1430Z,1730Z      D. 28.2N 80.1W
       B. AFXXX 3414A MATTHEW       E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1730Z
       C. 07/0930Z                  F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES AND
       A P-3 MISSION EVERY 12 HOURS.

[WaPo]

As favorable as the conditions are for Matt, it looks like he's taking his time getting his eye wall back together. His outflow channels and cloud tops are improving, but I'm far from convinced we"ll have rapid intensification. I can certainly see a gradual 20-30mb drop until the storm reaches the shelf, but he has to get his act together quickly. 

[Drz1111]

2 minutes ago, WaPo said:

As favorable as the conditions are for Matt, it looks like he's taking his time getting his eye wall back together. His outflow channels and cloud tops are improving, but I'm far from convinced we"ll have rapid intensification. I can certainly see a gradual 20-30mb drop until the storm reaches the shelf, but he has to get his act together quickly. 

You do realize that a gradual 20-30mb drop means a 930-940mb hurricane, yes?