biodhokie Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Still broken for me. had to ctrl+f5 for it to refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, RU4Real said: I'm not comfortable with this analysis. Littoral depth is a key factor in determining where and how a wave breaks but isn't particularly relevant to storm surge. The key elements of storm surge are fetch, direction and duration. All three of those elements are in play, here. A storm surge accompanied by breaking surf is potentially more damaging to structures near the coastline, but the flooding damage caused by surge is independent of breaking surf. For an analog, see the 18.5' of water that flooded into Sayreville NJ during Sandy. It came through Raritan Bay and up the Raritan River - several miles from the ocean and the nearest breaking wave. That flood event was all about fetch, direction and duration. If the eye stays off shore, the winds will help keep down the storm surge. If it comes inland, it will be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, biodhokie said: had to ctrl+f5 yea, page auto refreshed when I posted. Seeing that, I removed the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thesolmachine Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 90 Hours into the GFS it jogs SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: yea, page auto refreshed when I posted. Seeing that, I removed the post. Sorry for the confusion guys. When I uploaded it was going off my old cache on the PC. Fixed now. <embarrassed> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 no worries =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 34 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: After looking at the models and the conditions ahead for Matthew, I think there's a very good chance that he gets to 160mph over night...with pressures in th 925 range.... and right now to me it looks like landfall south of Daytona Beach by 50 miles or so... My parents live in Boynton Beach, well away from the water thankfully. How bad will it get there do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 No offense but the track loop although fascinating, is low on my list of concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Pressures stubbornly refusing to fall. Pressure normally lags organization improvement, but I am having doubts at the RI hype for this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Honestly no data that recon has found supports a 120mph hurricane attm. I'm going to take a solid guess that that'll change in the next few hours, but they just are not finding winds that strong... Yeah, quite surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Honestly no data that recon has found supports a 120mph hurricane attm. I'm going to take a solid guess that that'll change in the next few hours, but they just are not finding winds that strong... So you're saying NHC forecast discussion 31 is incorrectly claiming 105kt/120mph? Are there any pictures out there of the hurricane hunter plane-radar? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, RU4Real said: I'm not comfortable with this analysis. Littoral depth is a key factor in determining where and how a wave breaks but isn't particularly relevant to storm surge. The key elements of storm surge are fetch, direction and duration. All three of those elements are in play, here. A storm surge accompanied by breaking surf is potentially more damaging to structures near the coastline, but the flooding damage caused by surge is independent of breaking surf. For an analog, see the 18.5' of water that flooded into Sayreville NJ during Sandy. It came through Raritan Bay and up the Raritan River - several miles from the ocean and the nearest breaking wave. That flood event was all about fetch, direction and duration. The depth and shape of the ocean floor is a major factor in storm surge. Long, shallow, gently sloping shelves lead to big storm surges (see the gulf coast). Sharp dropoffs do not generate as big of storm surges (see hurricane andrew). The se coast of florida features the latter. The continental shelf drops off rapidly just a few miles from shore. However, that starts to change once you get up to about palm beach. If you look at the coast of fl, right about here the coastline starts to bend and run back toward the nnw. The continental shelf meanwhile continues north. So after palm beach, the further north you go, the further offshore the dropoff is. Therefore north florida will be more prone to surge than the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Chinook said: So you're saying NHC forecast discussion 31 is incorrectly claiming 105kt/120mph? Are there any pictures out there of the hurricane hunter plane-radar? Just wondering. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sorry for the confusion guys. When I uploaded it was going off my old cache on the PC. Fixed now. <embarrassed> Like it never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Derecho! said: Pressures stubbornly refusing to fall. Pressure normally lags organization improvement, but I am having doubts at the RI hype for this evening. You will wake up a changed man and never doubt the posters at AMWX ever again ;-) Seriously tho, you have some seasoned pros all on board here for RI overnight. Next several hours it will start. Convective flareups and towers now East and NE eyewall. It is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I am not saying it won't intensify at all overnight, just that it will not reach some of the extremes being thrown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This will be a high impact storm in the Bahamas, it appears that the eye will pass very close to both Nassau (12z) and Freeport (17z), and the more likely miss is west than east, not a good scenario at all with intensification likely to start soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Regardless of a surge, inlandish flooding could be pretty nasty just from drainage problems. The St Johns northern flow from east-central FL will be fighting the southbound winds on Matthew's western side. The eastbound stretch from Jacksonville to its mouth at Mayport will be getting the strongest westbound winds and pileup as Matthew approaches offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hugo recovered from being in a state similar to this so it can easily happen. If the core organizes, the environmental conditions will allow it to go from 960mb to 925mb fast, similar to what happened to Hugo and Charlie before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You will wake up a changed man and never doubt the posters at AMWX ever again ;-) Seriously tho, you have some seasoned pros all on board here for RI overnight. Next several hours it will start. Convective flareups and towers now East and NE eyewall. It is starting. Yu may have just taken the cake for the most weenie RI post I've seen in awhile. Not a bad thing, but it requires this.... It is one of hte more important tropical cyclone nights we've seen in a couple years, so I'm sure this thread will be lit up all night long. We do need to start to see some sort of pressure/wind reaction at some point. Not sure if the NOAA plane is having a few comms issues but their lack of dropsonde/vortex updates is annoying. Next AF aircraft is inbound so we'll get another perspective shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 17 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Pressures stubbornly refusing to fall. Pressure normally lags organization improvement, but I am having doubts at the RI hype for this evening. Once the thunderstorms wrap completely around the center and the eye starts to clear out via IR imagery the pressures will go down and depending on how quickly the center contracts will determine how low this can go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, SharonA said: Regardless of a surge, inlandish flooding could be pretty nasty just from drainage problems. The St Johns northern flow from east-central FL will be fighting the southbound winds on Matthew's western side. The eastbound stretch from Jacksonville to its mouth at Mayport will be getting the strongest westbound winds and pileup as Matthew approaches offshore. 301 east is a concern for water and wind; Black Creek, Julington Creek and the Ortega River are also going to back up dramatically. San Marco (south side of Jax) is surely going to be under water. And the beat goes on ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 More overshooting tops. Just needs a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Customary sundown shot before the bombing begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 RGTOP is great for peaking through the high over T anvil debris. You can clearly see the eye becoming better defined and the strong convection cell clusters going up in the eastern eyewall. This will begin pressure falls very shortly if not already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Eye wall is closing off now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, Windspeed said: RGTOP is great for peaking through the high over T anvil debris. You can clearly see the eye becoming better defined and the strong convection cell clusters going up in the eastern eyewall. This will begin pressure falls very shortly if not already. Tropical novice question.....I've seen it before and is often the sign of an intensifying/reorganizing system, but what is the technical term for the "rays" that are appearing along the N and NE side of the convection there? Is that just outflow? Or a function of the outflow? Is there a technical term for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Another pass just now, no pressure fall at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 pressure stable, 961.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It seems to me that Matthew is so small and tight that these inner core dynamics kind of knock its center out of whack when you get these big thunderstorm flareups that we've seen over the past few hours. I completely agree that the ingredients are in place, but until it develops organization around that center you can forget about RI. That may not take long to happen, but it is definitely a necessary first step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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