Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Fwiw hot off the presses: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 13 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: EPS out to 84 hours If I am NHC, the EPS makes me nervous the hurricane warning doesn't extend far enough south. There are multiple members with landfalls in the TS warning area it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 21 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: Don't forget during a public health emergency they can absolutely force you from your home. They can also force you to stay there. Remember the H5N1 case in the county with the ferrett a few years ago. That poor dude was quarantined in his home for 11 days. The only time I am aware of that it can happen. From a first responders point, it means: "You are strongly encouraged to leave. By law, we cannot force you to leave. However, if you have a problem, we probably won't be able, and most likely won't come back and help you. You're on your own!" I am paraphrasing of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 As far as I know, the last hurricane to make landfall anywhere close to where Matthew is expected to come onshore was Frances 2004, and at nowhere the same intensity. The last time a major hit the East coast was Andrew, since Wilma technically made landfall on the SW side of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As far as I know, the last hurricane to make landfall anywhere close to where Matthew is expected to come onshore was Frances 2004, and at nowhere the same intensity. The last time a major hit the East coast was Andrew, since Wilma technically made landfall on the SW side of FL. You're forgetting about Jeanne in almost the identical spot as Frances later that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As far as I know, the last hurricane to make landfall anywhere close to where Matthew is expected to come onshore was Frances 2004, and at nowhere the same intensity. The last time a major hit the East coast was Andrew, since Wilma technically made landfall on the SW side of FL. There have been plenty of big historical hurricanes in this region. Okechobee Hurricane of '28 made landfall in Palm Beach County (at 929mb!) and turned north just inland; Sea Islands Hurricane of 1893 grazed the E coast of FL and made landfall in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As far as I know, the last hurricane to make landfall anywhere close to where Matthew is expected to come onshore was Frances 2004, and at nowhere the same intensity. The last time a major hit the East coast was Andrew, since Wilma technically made landfall on the SW side of FL. Even Charley at cat 1 strength did tremendous damage in the volusia Flagler areas. Jeanne and Frances although a hundred miles south caused weeks of power outages and damage up and down the coast. So many homes had roofs ripped off and were still under construction that winter from the trio of storms. My friend says locals in Daytona are taking this seriously and they're getting off a1a and everything is now boarded up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, gymengineer said: You're forgetting about Jeanne in almost the identical spot as Frances later that season. Both of those basically crossed the state, and largely were rural (not completely as they collectively did put me without power in internal north central FL for a total of 10 days) - neither came up the coast like the 5:00 PM is suggesting. A whole different ball game ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Big blast of very deep convection going up in the eyewall and wrapping. Vortex Rossby Wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As far as I know, the last hurricane to make landfall anywhere close to where Matthew is expected to come onshore was Frances 2004, and at nowhere the same intensity. The last time a major hit the East coast was Andrew, since Wilma technically made landfall on the SW side of FL. A good search tool for historical hurricanes: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Both of those basically crossed the state, and largely were rural (not completely as they collectively did put me without power in internal north central FL for a total of 10 days) - neither came up the coast like the 5:00 PM is suggesting. A whole different ball game ... I believe the poster I replied to was also discussing any major hurricane east coast FL landfall, hence the mention of Andrew (which of course wouldn't be relevant to a S-to-N running track). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, Derecho! said: If I am NHC, the EPS makes me nervous the hurricane warning doesn't extend far enough south. There are multiple members with landfalls in the TS warning area it looks like. Yeah, I'm a little surprised Miami-Dade hasn't been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. It's right there on the edge of the NHC's cone of uncertainty. Looks like Tropical Storm Watches have been hoisted for Florida's west coast now, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I believe the poster I replied to was also discussing any major hurricane east coast FL landfall, hence the mention of Andrew (which of course wouldn't be relevant to a S-to-N running track). No banter and no disagreement. This is, however, a new ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Big blast of very deep convection going up in the eyewall and wrapping. Vortex Rossby Wave? Do you have any good reading on vortex Rossby-waves? Looks like the scale on that blow up is around 40-50nm width; what info I found indicated they are generally 10km width? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Quite a flare up on the NE edge. And I must admit, the western shift toward a true FL landfall has me concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Do you have any good reading on vortex Rossby-waves? Looks like the scale on that blow up is around 40-50nm width; what info I found indicated they are generally 10km width? Well, they tend to propagate outward over time. It's pretty technical, but here's an article: http://www2.fiu.edu/~willough/VRW/vrw_synth.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 After looking at the models and the conditions ahead for Matthew, I think there's a very good chance that he gets to 160mph over night...with pressures in th 925 range.... and right now to me it looks like landfall south of Daytona Beach by 50 miles or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 gfs further west thru 30, close to landfall in se fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: After looking at the models and the conditions ahead for Matthew, I think there's a very good chance that he gets to 160mph over night...with pressures in th 925 range.... and right now to me it looks like landfall south of Daytona Beach by 50 miles or so... NOAA HH radar showed a large elliptical eye, bryan norcross was just saying that larger eyes generally prevent hurricanes from getting super strong, but that it could tighten up more and become "super strong" (presumably he's meaning high end cat 4/cat 5.) any merit to this at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 MPIs drop to 880-890mb and 150-160kt along track. 85-90% of MPI is easily a high end cat 4 to cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 18Z GFS shows landfall near Vero Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 That coiled fist appearance on satellite is generally a harbinger of imminent intensification. Also, not loving how the outflow is pointing to SE FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Is it strengthening right now, on the road so I can't check really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: After looking at the models and the conditions ahead for Matthew, I think there's a very good chance that he gets to 160mph over night...with pressures in th 925 range.... and right now to me it looks like landfall south of Daytona Beach by 50 miles or so... Are you thinking it actually makes landfall as a cat 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: NOAA HH radar showed a large elliptical eye, bryan norcross was just saying that larger eyes generally prevent hurricanes from getting super strong, but that it could tighten up more and become "super strong" (presumably he's meaning high end cat 4/cat 5.) any merit to this at all? Yes, however this is going to be April on. Where Matthew will be in basically perfect conditions... and it is at a low enough latitude where we typically see eyes are able to shrink.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Man, this west trend just won't stop -- it's not always hundreds of miles or anything, but the ridge just keeps pushing harder and harder with each run, at least over the last 18-30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew really getting his act together per latest satellite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 storms exploding over the center now, tonight should be fun. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-1-24&checked=radar&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Matthew really getting his act together per latest satellite: Just going off the look of this, it is really going to explode in strength over the next several hours I have no doubt in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Honestly no data that recon has found supports a 120mph hurricane attm. I'm going to take a solid guess that that'll change in the next few hours, but they just are not finding winds that strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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