allgame830 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: While certainly there are times when a storm goes over land it takes "quite awhile" to re-establish the structure to intensify back to a previous status, I think the fact that very few storms do so (as you have correctly stated) is more a function of more land interaction, dryer air chances go up when near land for "awhile"...etc. The fact is, we have an intact MH in bathwater, with little shear and little dry air concerns...and by most/all accounts, an intact inner core...... ....Matthew will get stronger tonight.....much stronger.... YUP.... already indication of that on the most recent pass by RECON.. pressure down to 959mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Drz1111 said: Strongly disagree with this post. There are excellent outflow channels available for Matthew - look at the shear map. The reason it doesn't jump out on the satellite is that Matthew's deep convection was disrupted by passing over Cuba. But the phenomenon you describe - where the core gets disrupted and deep convection gets displaced from the center - is obviously not what happened here. Quite the opposite. As the cirrus from the deep convection near the center spreads, this will quickly look like a normal hurricane again. TL; DR: This is not Hurricane Georges, and using folk wisdom about how land interaction always disrupts the inner core of a TC doesn't make it so. Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 80kts SFMR max in the first pass NW-SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 28 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Extremely concerned for Nassau and surrounding islands. Surge is extremely life threatening FWIW, the populated areas in the Bahamas are not necessarily low-lying. Lots of fossil reefs with 10s of feet of elevation - enough to minimize surge impact. There have been a number of very strong hurricanes affected New Providence Island over the years (albeit not since the population exploded in the last few decades) and generally you haven't seen the horror stories you might expect if people lived closer to sea level. In particular, most of the poor neighborhoods of Nassau are actually up a steep hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Started noticing the Lightning this morning. It's continued in bursts . Especially in the northeast quadrant. Always a sign of an intensifying storm. I am worried about land friction tugging on the eye if it does get close to the coast and drawing it in. Perhaps an expert can weigh in on that phenomenan. Needless to say I told my friend who runs a condo in Daytona Beach Shores on the beach there's the chance of a cat 4-5 landfall along the coast, a threat not seen in that area in decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The Weather Channel just had Josh on. He said he was in Nassau but contemplating a move down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Euro ens are West of the op. Eps mean is a landfalling cane along central FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 EPS had quite a shift west with a lot of members. More into NC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 another recon going in, looks like we are headed for 24hr recon coverage starting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: another recon going in, looks like we are headed for 24hr recon coverage starting now Great idea on the off chance this thing manages to go Cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: EPS had quite a shift west with a lot of members. More into NC on this run. Interesting.... how much further WEST is this for NC compared to last run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: another recon going in, looks like we are headed for 24hr recon coverage starting now Where does RECON take off from? How long does it take at this time for them to reach Matthew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Where does RECON take off from? How long does it take at this time for them to reach Matthew? Earlier today I've seen them coming out of Puerto Rico, but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Started noticing the Lightning this morning. It's continued in bursts . Especially in the northeast quadrant. Always a sign of an intensifying storm. I am worried about land friction tugging on the eye if it does get close to the coast and drawing it in. Perhaps an expert can weigh in on that phenomenan. Needless to say I told my friend who runs a condo in Daytona Beach Shores on the beach there's the chance of a cat 4-5 landfall along the coast, a threat not seen in that area in decades. RE Lightning in hurricane cores: Lightning in a hurricane core can occur during rapid intensification, eyewall replacement cycles, the maximum intensity period, a weakening period, the end of intensification, interaction with land, a change in track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 28 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Good post. Very few storms go back to strong 4 or five after being disrupted by land to the extent Matthew has been. Not saying it cannot happen, but I think it is not the most likely scenario, and the intensity models agree. In general you are right, however the environment is almost perfect. Very little shear, high OHC, good forward speed... Plus we have seen pretty quick reorganization when you consider how poor it looked this morning. With landfall a ways away, I think pressures in the 930's are attainable, perhaps lower. Not to mention the intensity guidance has been pretty much worthless for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thesolmachine Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 o' clock update is out. NHC moved the track farther west for the first 48 hours into Florida. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153139.shtml?5-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 13 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: While certainly there are times when a storm goes over land it takes "quite awhile" to re-establish the structure to intensify back to a previous status, I think the fact that very few storms do so (as you have correctly stated) is more a function of more land interaction, dryer air chances go up when near land for "awhile"...etc. The fact is, we have an intact MH in bathwater, with little shear and little dry air concerns...and by most/all accounts, an intact inner core...... ....Matthew will get stronger tonight.....much stronger.... I am not saying it will not get stronger tonight, it probably will. But saying with any certainty that it will get back to strong 4 or 5 is pretty risky IMO. There was obviously a pretty good disruption as it stalled near the tip of Cuba for a while- after all the pressure did rise 30 mb from peak intensity and the satellite presentation got a fair bit worse. I still would be surprised if it reaches more than a low-mid 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Interesting.... how much further WEST is this for NC compared to last run?? EPS out to 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Where does RECON take off from? How long does it take at this time for them to reach Matthew? 6 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: Earlier today I've seen them coming out of Puerto Rico, but that could change. One from Tampa and the new one from LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: EPS out to 84 hours First majority landfall it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I am not saying it will not get stronger tonight, it probably will. But saying with any certainty that it will get back to strong 4 or 5 is pretty risky IMO. There was obviously a pretty good disruption as it stalled near the tip of Cuba for a while- after all the pressure did rise 30 mb from peak intensity and the satellite presentation got a fair bit worse. I still would be surprised if it reaches more than a low-mid 4. Oh, I know you weren't saying it won't get stronger....but in the case of Matthew as opposed to other land interacting storms of the past...the central core remains intact...and wind maxima didn't propagate outward by all accounts....and the conditions Matthew are to encounter over the next day or so, gives me confidence to say that I think NHC's max values of 130 from here on out are pretty conservative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I think that NHC track should be adjusted more to the NW around SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: I think that NHC track should be adjusted more to the NW around SC/NC. Model consensus goes against that thinking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Can those of us who are mobile get a update on the 18z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I think that NHC track should be adjusted more to the NW around SC/NC. Based on wishcasting? Most of the current models do not support you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I think that NHC track should be adjusted more to the NW around SC/NC. I will be really curious to see what the 18Z and the 00Z GFS model runs show. It may require an adjustment back to the Northwest by the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, bugalou said: Based on wishcasting? Most of the current models do not support you. No, based on the Euro and the EPS, as well as UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Can those of us who are mobile get a update on the 18z models? Nothing meaningful is out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: The east coast of FL isn't especially vulnerable to surge. It has a narrow area of shallow water where a surge can build, and the shelf drops off quickly from shore. There are probably exceptions to that like around Cape Canaveral, but surge is much worse on the Gulf side where there is a longer shelf. And if the right side of the hurricane with the worst conditions is offshore, it won't be especially damaging anywhere off the immediate beaches. The western eye wall would probably be cat 1 or locally cat 2 conditions and in an offshore direction, which FL building codes can largely withstand. Hurricane force wind at all probably won't extend more than 50 miles or so west of the eye. I'd be a lot more worried with a slightly further west track with a landfall around PBI that has the eastern eye wall on land for that long stretch north. I'm not comfortable with this analysis. Littoral depth is a key factor in determining where and how a wave breaks but isn't particularly relevant to storm surge. The key elements of storm surge are fetch, direction and duration. All three of those elements are in play, here. A storm surge accompanied by breaking surf is potentially more damaging to structures near the coastline, but the flooding damage caused by surge is independent of breaking surf. For an analog, see the 18.5' of water that flooded into Sayreville NJ during Sandy. It came through Raritan Bay and up the Raritan River - several miles from the ocean and the nearest breaking wave. That flood event was all about fetch, direction and duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 15 minutes ago, Thesolmachine said: 5 o' clock update is out. NHC moved the track farther west for the first 48 hours into Florida. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153139.shtml?5-daynl#contents 15 minutes ago, Thesolmachine said: 5 o' clock update is out. NHC moved the track farther west for the first 48 hours into Florida. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153139.shtml?5-daynl#contents I do not like this model kiss from Matthew and his brewed up stew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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