NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The loop is gone btw, short lived, and good riddance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dude, calm down. It's a dicey scenario but not the end of the world. Yeesh. Its bad dude. Generally a cane hits one or to cities and comes inland and dies a slow death. Here you are talking about a potent storm possibly staying mere miles off the coast during it's path and never having a chance to weaken. You are talking hundreds and hundreds of miles of coastline, populated areas, and resorts getting hammered without Matthew having a chance to weaken all that much. The potential implications are alot larger than you suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 In fact, by 120hrs, what's left of Matthew is meandering near Bermuda. The lead time is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Finally moving East and weakening, just SW of Wilmington, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It has the look of a storm about to undergo rapid intensification again, would not be surprised to see 930 mb by 00z and 910 mb by 12z around which time it will be very close to Nassau. I think it is headed between Andros Island and Nassau -- too close to call for eastern FL in terms of catastrophic inland swerve or long-duration coastal buzz-saw which would still be very significant impact. In my mind, trough is showing enough life to be a hurricane catcher after all, would expect Matthew to accelerate ahead of current model positions and therefore would strongly urge NC officials to hold off on declaring all clear, could be the opposite outcome. (a NC impact would have to be Saturday night or Sunday if it happens). As to the loop, I think Nicole will do all the looping in this particular couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 If that trough could ever figure out a way to dig just a bit more it would put the mid-atlantic back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If that trough could ever figure out a way to dig just a bit more it would put the mid-atlantic back in the game. We can only wish. Suck it up here, let it dump all it's rain and die over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Its bad dude. Generally a cane hits one or to cities and comes inland and dies a slow death. Here you are talking about a potent storm possibly staying mere miles off the coast during it's path and never having a chance to weaken. You are talking hundreds and hundreds of miles of coastline, populated areas, and resorts getting hammered without Matthew having a chance to weaken all that much. The potential implications are alot larger than you suggest. Not to minimize anything, but to me it appears the primary impact will be winds, which should limit the danger to life and limb compared to flooding. It will depend on exact track, but it seems that most or even all of the scenarios would not result in catastrophic storm surge flooding outside the very most exposed areas, especially if/where the storm tracks off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, bobbutts said: Not to minimize anything, but to me it appears the primary impact will be winds, which should limit the danger to life and limb compared to flooding. It will depend on exact track, but it seems that most or even all of the scenarios would not result in catastrophic storm surge flooding outside the very most exposed areas, especially if/where the storm tracks off the coast. I would think the storm surge would build and build and build as the eye hugged the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I would think the storm surge would build and build and build as the eye hugged the coast. To maximize impact you want the wind direction perpendicular to the coast, think areas E. of New Orleans in Katrina for an "ideal" setup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Wow Pinned Tweet Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 20m20 minutes ago ECMWF 12z is a disaster -- Nassau Bahamas Cat 4-5 wind gusts possible. Coastal Florida hurricane conditions well inland. Cat 4 Landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomAtkins Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: To maximize impact you want the wind direction perpendicular to the coast, think areas E. of New Orleans in Katrina for an "ideal" setup.. So South Carolina or Georgia in these models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Rest of the run. That is some serious wind Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago Too soon to know impacts (if any) of #Matthew to Carolinas. Models have shown Hurricane paralleling coast from S. Florida to North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 LOL, the NAVEGM actually absorbs Nicole eventually and ends up re intensifying and moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew could push some serious amounts of water into the barrier islands and sounds of NC depending on its strength as it moves northward. NC is not out of the woods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I would think the storm surge would build and build and build as the eye hugged the coast. The east coast of FL isn't especially vulnerable to surge. It has a narrow area of shallow water where a surge can build, and the shelf drops off quickly from shore. There are probably exceptions to that like around Cape Canaveral, but surge is much worse on the Gulf side where there is a longer shelf. And if the right side of the hurricane with the worst conditions is offshore, it won't be especially damaging anywhere off the immediate beaches. The western eye wall would probably be cat 1 or locally cat 2 conditions and in an offshore direction, which FL building codes can largely withstand. Hurricane force wind at all probably won't extend more than 50 miles or so west of the eye. I'd be a lot more worried with a slightly further west track with a landfall around PBI that has the eastern eye wall on land for that long stretch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The east coast of FL isn't especially vulnerable to surge. It has a narrow area of shallow water where a surge can build, and the shelf drops off quickly from shore. There are probably exceptions to that like around Cape Canaveral, but surge is much worse on the Gulf side where there is a longer shelf. And if the right side of the hurricane with the worst conditions is offshore, it won't be especially damaging anywhere off the immediate beaches. The western eye wall would probably be cat 1 or locally cat 2 conditions and in an offshore direction, which FL building codes can largely withstand. Hurricane force wind at all probably won't extend more than 50 miles or so west of the eye. I'd be a lot more worried with a slightly further west track with a landfall around PBI that has the eastern eye wall on land for that long stretch north. Hello? Have you seen the 12z GFS or ECMWF, it's more than just the Western eyewall that comes onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Summey said: What model has been the most accurate for this system to this point? The Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Discuss the storm. Discuss people in PMs, dont want to read the childish bs in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Summey said: What model has been the most accurate for this system to this point? Euro. UKMet second best. (see verification below via Brian Tang at SUNY-Albany) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, Summey said: What model has been the most accurate for this system to this point? Objective verifications show the UKMET and ECMWF are neck and neck at D3 skill with Matthew. Past performance may not be a good indicator of future skill though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: Objective verifications show the UKMET and ECMWF are neck and neck at D3 skill with Matthew. Past performance may not be a good indicator of future skill though. Thank you all. I get that past performance does not guarantee future performance but it seems like the safest bet, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Core of Matthew is definitely reorganizing itself as we speak. Eye is currently clouded over, but the core is starting to look more symmetric again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 And many times the UKMET is the first to pick up on something that other models eventually come around to. Wasn't it the first to show the landfall into the east coast of Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Current motion almost looks due North as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Father in law has a place on the beach in Deerfield Beach, extreme NW Broward County. Its a nice condo, he is on the 5th floor. He is evacuating down to Hollywood inland. I would pay to stay at his place for this puppy. Folks, don't take this the wrong way, but we have a banter thread open for stuff like this. Please keep discussion specifically to the hurricane, models, land interaction (or none), development, intensity, and any other specific meteorological phenomenon related to Matthew. Official agency announcements are okay too. Otherwise, use the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, friedmators said: Current motion almost looks due North as well. What?? The center is moving due northwest right now. Believe your eyes are mistaking you because of the convection building around the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Hello? Have you seen the 12z GFS or ECMWF, it's more than just the Western eyewall that comes onshore. The GFS shows the eye coming ashore around maybe Palm Bay, then being slightly inland for a while before coming back off around Daytona Beach. The Euro looks about the same, before being offshore again but close to the coast. The storm will be devastating for areas that experience the eye and northern/eastern eyewall, but other areas will walk away with a good lashing, not devastation. I agree that a nudge further west to a longer duration over FL would cause a lot more damage, and if it struck as a strong cat 4. In GA/SC, I believe they are more vulnerable to surge, but by then the center will be moving parallel to or along the shore, not perpendicular which maximizes surge. And this wouldn't be the most devastating storm in history. It still looks likely that the worst will miss the massively populated areas in South FL, eastern FL isn't especially vulnerable to surge, building codes today are much better than pre-Hurricane Andrew, and the only really major city in danger from a track like that would be Jacksonville, and even then, time over land will weaken the storm-their worst case scenario is a track from the ESE, not from the SSE. This isn't like Sandy or Katrina that threatened very densely populated and vulnerable areas with historic surges, or Andrew which was a cat 5 into the south suburbs of Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: What?? The center is moving due northwest right now. Believe your eyes are mistaking you because of the convection building around the eye. If you look at the motion with the latitude/longitude lines, you can see the eye made a wobble slightly north of NW, but the overall motion is definitely to the NW right now. Looking forward to seeing new recon......looks like the deepest convection is almost wrapped around the eye....the CDO has expanded and looks much more symmetrical and all that in a span of 8 hours or so. I would be surprised to not see some type of pressure drop. I run at high end cat 4 is definitely a possibility. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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