Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Someone asked about NC....FWIW, the HWRF is actually a fairly close pass to Eastern NC this run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: thank you... There isn't very much shear right now... please post less about things you don't understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: with Matt moving slightly faster than expected, that's enough evidence for me. those charts vary significantly. even hour to hour. Please educate us as I am trying to learn tropics.....so a system moving faster than expected is due in part to shear that it is encountering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, wxmx said: That's a pretty old shear map Its slightly displaced on that one map, but regardless. This is not a struggling storm, but a re-organizing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 How sinister looking is Matt now? If you look very closely, it appears to be a devil like image giving the middle finger, with the outer bands on the right side having the appearance of wings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: with Matt moving slightly faster than expected, that's enough evidence for me. those charts vary significantly. even hour to hour. It's outflow. The worst part is, is that despite everyone respectfully correcting you, you still fail to admit that you are wrong. Being wrong doesn't bother me, I'm wrong all the time, but it's when you're wrong and refuse to admit it, that bothers me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: thank you... The most current has less shear. You are very ignorant wrt tropical systems. Please stop posting, last warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Its slightly displaced on that one map, but regardless. This is not a struggling storm, but a re-organizing one. http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2016 Hurricane Season/vis1.gif I see a 08/23/2016 shear map on your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Please educate us as I am trying to learn tropics.....so a system moving faster than expected is due in part to shear that it is encountering? Optimal movement would be what NHC currently has it at. 10 to 15 MPH. (they say it's currently 12mph) But it appears to be moving faster than that. They'll probably update at 2 or 5pm. And what is occurring now is not what you call optimal outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: I see a 08/23/2016 shear map on your post. Must be your cache since its a direct link I have 10/5/16 @ 15 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: Optimal movement would be what NHC currently has it at. 10 to 15 MPH. (they say it's currently 12mph) But it appears to be moving faster than that. They'll probably update at 2 or 5pm. And what is occurring now is not what you call optimal outflow. But how would what you call 'shear' affect the forward speed of the system? Arent shear and steering currents 2 completely different atmospheric levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Optimal movement would be what NHC currently has it at. 10 to 15 MPH. (they say it's currently 12mph) But it appears to be moving faster than that. They'll probably update at 2 or 5pm. And what is occurring now is not what you call optimal outflow. What's occurring now is that you're becoming dangerously close to riding out the storm offline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 A lot of folks in NC are writing this one off and not taking it as seriously anymore... still a lot of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Optimal movement would be what NHC currently has it at. 10 to 15 MPH. (they say it's currently 12mph) But it appears to be moving faster than that. They'll probably update at 2 or 5pm. And what is occurring now is not what you call optimal outflow. You called it shear so how would you know it's not optimal outflow. Frankly you don't know what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But how would what you call 'shear' affect the forward speed of the system? Arent shear and steering currents 2 completely different atmospheric levels? It's clear he's just using tropical word salad. "The forecasted amplification of the shear is in excess of the forward motion of the anticyclonic flow during low tide..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Optimal movement would be what NHC currently has it at. 10 to 15 MPH. (they say it's currently 12mph) But it appears to be moving faster than that. They'll probably update at 2 or 5pm. And what is occurring now is not what you call optimal outflow. It is in low shear environment...as the COC's realign themselves, and the deep thunderstorms wrap completely...and this will take on the classic intense hurricane "look" again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 17 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: What would need to happen for it to continue north toward NC again? Least amount of interaction with FL coast combined with increased forward speed allowing Matthew to stay ahead of the trough and begin to phase with it near eastern NC, this risk appears to have dropped to about one in ten now, only the CMC (GEM) has any hint of the storm failing to loop or meander and even its depiction is not all that robust beyond SC, very last minute pick-up of a rapidly weakening Matthew on that model. This is really about as nowcasting a tropical cyclone situation as we've seen in recent years, a lot depends on what happens in the next 12-24 hours, if it gets back to cat-4 then I think it has more chance of picking up forward speed but at the same time that probably increases the risk to central FL too, if the storm underperforms it is more likely to get trapped in the loop out to sea and would likely stay well off the FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GFDS has it riding the immediate FL coast with an eventual LF in SC. GFDL also rides the Eastern NC Coast all the way thru OBX fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12z GFDL nearly makes landfall at Daytona Beach at 18z Friday and then again at Charleston at 18z Saturday. Then runs up the coast, just offshore to Wilmington, NC before phasing with the trough and accelerating off to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thesolmachine Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Euro has started up on tropical tidbits, FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew appears to be re-organizing at a respectable pace this afternoon. The eye might not clear out this afternoon, but the center should remain clear of any major shear throughout the nocturnal maximum which could aid in a steady strengthening regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Thesolmachine said: Euro has started up on tropical tidbits, FYI. You can see yesterday's 24hr map was too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 LOL. NC Governor calling all clear, credited the EURO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: LOL. NC Governor calling all clear, credited the EURO: Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LOL. NC Governor calling all clear, credited the EURO: I want to compliment the Mets for beating the Giants also!!! Hoy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Euro faster than 00z, but early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LOL. NC Governor calling all clear, credited the EURO: I don't think you can only compliment the EURO. GFS jumped away at the same time. NCEP is not going to be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, JasonOH said: I don't think you can only compliment the EURO. GFS jumped away at the same time. NCEP is not going to be happy. I also dont think anyone should write off anything for NC at this time. There are still indications Matthew could be a player in E NC before shooting East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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