Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z HWRF keeps the core off the FL coast. 946.9mb about 100 miles SE of Savannah at 03z Saturday. But came West quite a bit from 6Z irt FL coast. This also being the farther East tropical model this whole time iirc so that shift is a red flag. Edit: Compare 48 hrs this run to the 6z run at 54hrs specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 shear from the North seems stronger than expected, look at all the cloud tops blowing from north-to-south over Cuba. It could also be why Matthew is moving faster than expected. I feel a Florida landfall is about certain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a common scare tactic. Christie used it for Irene and it failed. I'm not stating that evacuations aren't necessary, far from it, but they need to have teeth behind them and be used judiciously. Local government also needs to realize that if you order a population to be evacuated that transportation must be provided for those with access and functional needs along with a place to stay. Not everyone can afford to go to a Hotel 20 miles inland. I was hoping that Katrina would've fixed a lot of these issues but it's been 4,000 days since the last major hurricane made landfall in the US and little seems to have been done to fix easy issues. We continue to be a failure of our lack of foresight. Matthew will just continue that unfortunately. Please move this to banter if need be mods but South Carolina is providing shelter and transportation for anyone who needs it. They have 400 school buses from Greenville, SC going down and picking people up and bringing them to Columbia where they closed all the schools and set up shelters at all of them. I think there are more school buses on the way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: shear from the North seems stronger than expected, look at all the cloud tops blowing from north-to-south over Cuba. It could also be why Matthew is moving faster than expected. I feel a Florida landfall is about certain at this point. LOL, that's called outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Eye appears clouded over on infrared. Still visible on visible, but also looks very cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a common scare tactic. Christie used it for Irene and it failed. I'm not stating that evacuations aren't necessary, far from it, but they need to have teeth behind them and be used judiciously. Local government also needs to realize that if you order a population to be evacuated that transportation must be provided for those with access and functional needs along with a place to stay. Not everyone can afford to go to a Hotel 20 miles inland. I was hoping that Katrina would've fixed a lot of these issues but it's been 4,000 days since the last major hurricane made landfall in the US and little seems to have been done to fix easy issues. We continue to be a failure of our lack of foresight. Matthew will just continue that unfortunately. unfortunately, you're correct. as for not having places of refuge for such an event, the big problem is you need cash to build such a place, as well as maintain it. and a lot of places just don't have such an expenditure as a priority. but i do wonder though. have there been IWT meetings down in NC/SC/FL like there were in Alabama, Houston, recently northeast PA, and several CWA's up here (MPX, which I attended, ARX, ABR, and also FSD)? and if so, how are those meetings maybe affecting the messaging down in this part of the US right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: shear from the North seems stronger than expected, look at all the cloud tops blowing from north-to-south over Cuba. It could also be why Matthew is moving faster than expected. I feel a Florida landfall is about certain at this point. Im not an expert but isn't that just the outflow from the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: shear from the North seems stronger than expected, look at all the cloud tops blowing from north-to-south over Cuba. It could also be why Matthew is moving faster than expected. I feel a Florida landfall is about certain at this point. Shear is currently analyzed at around 5kts, down from 10-15 a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: shear from the North seems stronger than expected, look at all the cloud tops blowing from north-to-south over Cuba. It could also be why Matthew is moving faster than expected. I feel a Florida landfall is about certain at this point. That's the outflow from the storm, not shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: shear from the North seems stronger than expected, look at all the cloud tops blowing from north-to-south over Cuba. It could also be why Matthew is moving faster than expected. I feel a Florida landfall is about certain at this point. The eye and CDO is looking pretty healthy to me. I don't think it has a hard time getting back to a cat 4 by tonight. I just hope there's not a rapid intensification round that takes it back to a cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im not an expert but isn't that just the outflow from the storm? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: shear from the North seems stronger than expected, look at all the cloud tops blowing from north-to-south over Cuba. It could also be why Matthew is moving faster than expected. I feel a Florida landfall is about certain at this point. I think the GFS is the only Florida landfall among the 12z's at this point. Someone can correct me if that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hugo said: I think the GFS is the only Florida landfall among the 12z's at this point. Someone can correct me if that's wrong. I believe you are correct. JMA/UKIE are close. Awaiting the NAVGEM panels.... Edit: LF on NAVGEM. Goes right over Disneyworld: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: shear from the North seems stronger than expected, look at all the cloud tops blowing from north-to-south over Cuba. It could also be why Matthew is moving faster than expected. I feel a Florida landfall is about certain at this point. Think land may still be causing the surface center to be displaced north of the 500mb center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: It's not outflow, when the core is being interfered by it. A portion is still being sheared. 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Shear is currently analyzed at around 5kts, down from 10-15 a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It's not as noticeable on visible, but look on Rainbow animation - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I don't think its shear, but Matthew definitely has some odd shaping of its inner core right now. I simply think its a small storm that is undergoing some reorganization. I think you'll likely see it grow in the next 24 hours but there's pretty much no reason for it to weaken right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: It's still interfering. Outflow can't interfere...it's created by the cyclone itself. Also, it appears the tropical winds radii has compacted some after landfall in Haiti and Cuba...from 185 to 175 miles. Good call on that...not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: It's not as noticeable on visible, but look on Rainbow animation - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-short.html Not seeing it, sorry. Looks like traditional outflow to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: It's still interfering. Wrong, it is from the storm. A good storm WILL have good outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 RGEM has a directional heading aimed right at a Miami LF then takes a sudden due N turn at the last minute fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Outflow can't interfere...it's created by the cyclone itself. Also, it appears the tropical winds radii has compacted some after landfall in Haiti and Cuba...from 185 to 175 miles. Good call on that...not Some people here the last two days really need to read more and post less. The eye is definitely closing on IR, but I'm wondering if that's just an internal process as the cyclone completes what is effectively an ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 What would need to happen for it to continue north toward NC again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The Upper-Level Anti-cyclone over the system is in no way shear and is not a detriment to the hurricane. Please take a break and read more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thesolmachine Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 When is the latest Euro model coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I'm impressed by how good the storm looks, especially the last few frames. Area of deepest convection continues to expand, to the point where it's now covering the eye. Better banding. Core is already mostly rebuilt. Dry slot to the North already mixed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: doesn't look too healthy That flareup on the NW side of the storm looks like an outstretched arm flipping us the bird. Just sayin. Right back at ya Matthew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: The Upper Level Anti-cyclone over the system is in no way shear and is not a detriment to the hurricane. That's a pretty old shear map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 with Matt moving slightly faster than expected, that's enough evidence for me. those charts vary significantly. even hour to hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: That's a pretty old shear map thank you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.