Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hugo said: By what though? A tropical storm? I can't imagine much being left. Some swirling dust and a 1006mb low. Nichole steals all the moisture from the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This is verbatim a devastating run for Volusia County. I have friends down there and travel there every winter for speedweeks. Like many coastal areas, tremendous development has been underway since the last hurricanes of 2004 which gave that area a "glancing" blow. That noon run needs to be a wake up call for anyone east of 95 to get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hugo said: By what though? A tropical storm? I can't imagine much being left. Hard to tell, some rain and wind likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I also believe that we'll see a more rapid re-strengthening period today. Matthew has large, sprawling bands well removed from the center, so once a firm CDO (with embedded eye) can really establish itself it should be able feed off the environment quite nicely. Shear should become a non-factor later today, so the OHC should be able to be fully utilized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Mandatory evacuation will take place for Charleston at 3pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 CMC looks a lot closer to the coast as well down there @ 30 and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: This is verbatim a devastating run for Volusia County. I have friends down there and travel there every winter for speedweeks. Like many coastal areas, tremendous development has been underway since the last hurricanes of 2004 which gave that area a "glancing" blow. That noon run needs to be a wake up call for anyone east of 95 to get out. They already have mandatory evacuations in place for the barrier islands. Have to be out by 3 pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Mandatory evacuation will take place for Charleston at 3pm today. "Mandatory" there is no law that forces people from their home. It's essentially a strongly worded evacuation order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 looks like ft pierce/Melbourne area is in the bulls eye right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: "Mandatory" there is no law that forces people from their home. It's essentially a strongly worded evacuation order. SC no longer distinguishes between voluntary and mandatory evacuations either. It's just "get out" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: "Mandatory" there is no law that forces people from their home. It's essentially a strongly worded evacuation order. Also means we are not coming to get you if you stay and the doody hits the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: "Mandatory" there is no law that forces people from their home. It's essentially a strongly worded evacuation order. I would think it would be something like "if you don't evacuate, give us the name of your next of kin in case you don't make it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Attention: especially for newer posters. I have created a banter thread for any questions or posts about Matthew, please use that thread for imby and other posts that don't pertain to forecast discussion of the system.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: "Mandatory" there is no law that forces people from their home. It's essentially a strongly worded evacuation order. Hopefully people heed the order. Much better to be safe in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Also means we are not coming to get you if you stay and the doody hits the fan. Basically, Nikki Haley said you're putting rescue worker lives in danger if you don't leave and they have to come get you in today's press conference. Makes sense, interstate will be switched to one way at 3PM and they'll be offering buses to get people to the Upstate, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The German (ICON) and French (ARPEGE) models both landfall roughly in the same spot as the 12z GFS. Both are upcoming "prodigies" in Europe, with the French model being based off of the ECMWF 12z UKMET has Matt getting uncomfotably close to SE FL. Also hits SC afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12z GFS decapitates (decouples) Matthew after the anticyclonic loop...with the mid level low heading east and vanishing and the low level low heading SW. By day 13 there's still some surface reflection in the BoC...Nicole is racing east by day 13 across the Atlantic. 12z Ukmet is similar to previous few runs, close but no landfall in FL...landfall in SC, then anticylonic loop...weak low just north of the Bahamas heading south at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 HWRF slightly west of 6z runs at 42 hours. It appears "slightly west" is the 12z run buzzterm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Fwiw, the JMA implies a FL LF (or very close to) in the same spot at the GFS then again in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Anyone have a link to webcams from Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 For those with access to the maps, have the impacts for NC changed on the 12Z runs? I'm following the description but don't see anything about NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Anyone have a link to webcams from Florida? http://www.stateofflorida.com/florida-web-cams.aspx http://earthcam.com/network/index.php?country=us&page=FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: "Mandatory" there is no law that forces people from their home. It's essentially a strongly worded evacuation order. Okay as someone who is a first responder, and has dealt with evacuating people for river flooding on numerous occasions, I fully understand this. I was simply relaying what Gov Haley said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: For those with access to the maps, have the impacts for NC changed on the 12Z runs? I'm following the description but don't see anything about NC. Minimal effects from the GFS. CMC shows landfall between MYR and ILM, then just rides the coast and ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I'm still not sold on the loop occurring... especially with that sharp amplified trough. I'll believe it if it is still there tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: For those with access to the maps, have the impacts for NC changed on the 12Z runs? I'm following the description but don't see anything about NC. Relatively minor impact, mainly in the form of rain most probably, or TS winds close to the coastal NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: http://www.stateofflorida.com/florida-web-cams.aspx http://earthcam.com/network/index.php?country=us&page=FL Thank you. I will be checking these out as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The 12z HWRF keeps the core off the FL coast. 946.9mb about 100 miles SE of Savannah at 03z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 24 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: I would think it would be something like "if you don't evacuate, give us the name of your next of kin in case you don't make it". That's a common scare tactic. Christie used it for Irene and it failed. I'm not stating that evacuations aren't necessary, far from it, but they need to have teeth behind them and be used judiciously. Local government also needs to realize that if you order a population to be evacuated that transportation must be provided for those with access and functional needs along with a place to stay. Not everyone can afford to go to a Hotel 20 miles inland. I was hoping that Katrina would've fixed a lot of these issues but it's been 4,000 days since the last major hurricane made landfall in the US and little seems to have been done to fix easy issues. We continue to be a failure of our lack of foresight. Matthew will just continue that unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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