NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Moving due East from the GA coast, and immediately started restrengthening LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Good news is many hurricane models still keep the center off the coast of FL I'll take the Globals 10/10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Good news is many hurricane models still keep the center off the coast of FL That's good-it makes the difference between a rainy and very windy day with offshore wind that causes minor damage vs. much more than that if the eye actually came onshore. FL building codes can withstand TS or Cat 1 winds, but a cat 3 or 4 is a different story. Surge-wise, the east coast of FL is sharp-sloping to deep water, so surge isn't the biggest threat there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 By Saturday night, the first piece of the trough has lifted out, leaving Matthew behind, but the main trough axis is still back over the OH Valley. Granted by this time, the trough has flattened out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Further North, close enough to give the SC coast a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'll take the Globals 10/10 times. The "hurricane Models" initialize off the previous GFS so they will likely shift anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 For those in E. FL you should be preparing for a storm that tracks up the left side of the cone at higher intensity than forecast. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Drifting ESE on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said: How does the GFS typically do within 48 for tropical systems? It's average track error at hour 48 in 2015 was 82 miles compared to 71 miles for TVCA. TVCA is a consensus of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF, and COAMPS and is considered the gold standard for track forecasts. COAMPS is a new addition for 2016 because the NHC felt it was sufficiently skillful. It doesn't get mentioned very much in here (or ever really) but it can be found here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, bobbutts said: For those in E. FL you should be preparing for a storm that tracks up the left side of the cone at higher intensity than forecast. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. I have family in Boynton, Beach. This morning I though it would come onshore well North of them but now I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Heading South at a good clip now on Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: I have family in Boynton, Beach. This morning I though it would come onshore well North of them but now I'm not so sure. I lived in Port Charlotte for Charley and the entire town expected it to go right up the NHC center line. Totally unprepared for it to track (well within the cone) over us. By the time it's happening it's way too late to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew at this point is taking a beating between the shear from the trough lifting out and interaction with Nicole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Regarding the person that said that Andros island would knock it down?, I'm not so sure. Despite its size, it's nearly flat so it wouldn't disrupt the circulation much at all, and it doesn't have the shear landmass size to significantly disrupt the whole storm and deprive it of energy. In short, I don't think it's quite big enough or tall enough to have a significant impact on the storm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Well, the loop is real. A lot of ifs beyond day 5. Including the possibility that Matthew could spend more time over land and weaken more quickly, and what the final outcome is regarding the trough, since that seems to keep changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew misses the trough on the 12z GFS. Hanging around off the SE coast. If a ridge builds back in overhead, could look at another strike for FL and into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Like I mentioned before the 12z runs, Matt's moving faster than expected so expect a more westward trend in 12z. And wallaaa. These trends will continue if he keeps speeding like he is. And like mentioned yesterday, the Gulf isn't off-limits yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: Like I mentioned before the 12z runs, Matt's moving faster than expected so expect a more westward trend in 12z. And wallaaa. These trends will continue if he keeps speeding like he is. And like mentioned yesterday, the Gulf isn't off-limits yet either. That would be a pretty monstrous 2 day error by 2016 standards. Even a direct MIA landfall would be a big error right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Matthew at this point is taking a beating between the shear from the trough lifting out and interaction with Nicole. I think its about to enter a period of rapid intensification. Extremely deep "standing" convection is building on the Northern side and is chock full of lighting. The ragged eye is quickly contracting and gaining symmetry. OUtflow looks great on SE Quandrant. Get ready... Nassau is going to get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This GFS run is similar to the Euro 12z run yesterday. Both make landfall in Florida, do the loop in similar fashion and cross Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That would be a pretty monstrous 2 day error by 2016 standards. Even a direct MIA landfall would be a big error right now agreed, but we still don't have general consensus..even being this close to the storm. The loop-de-loop yesterday I don't think anybody expected. And the ridge is certainly strong enough to still send this into the gulf on it's 1st strike. Small chance, but still possible...especially how big storms like to continue the 'westward' trends as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Barrier islands of GA need evacuation orders if they don't have them already. The flooding there is going to be very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: agreed, but we still don't have general consensus..even being this close to the storm. The loop-de-loop yesterday I don't think anybody expected. And the ridge is certainly strong enough to still send this into the gulf on it's 1st strike. Small chance, but still possible...especially how big storms like to continue the 'westward' trends as we get closer. It's a day and a half from FL. I don't see a correction of the size you say as possible being possible at this point. It is coming up the east coast of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Yep. Especially Tybee and others that are very low-lying (most of the islands are right at sea level). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: agreed, but we still don't have general consensus..even being this close to the storm. The loop-de-loop yesterday I don't think anybody expected. And the ridge is certainly strong enough to still send this into the gulf on it's 1st strike. Small chance, but still possible...especially how big storms like to continue the 'westward' trends as we get closer. The eastern GOM is not a friendly environment with regard to wind shear. If Matt makes in the GOM it likely will be torn apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Nicole is hanging out in the Atlantic and actually moving west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Further North, close enough to give the SC coast a glancing blow. By what though? A tropical storm? I can't imagine much being left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Recon heading back in for a SE to NW pass. Should have an updated central pressure in the next 30 minutes. Josh is in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 If Matthew goes over Andros Island, West Palm and maybe even Fort Lauderdale are in serious trouble. Up further north toward Cape Canaveral/Merritt Island might be at the most serious risk in FL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think its about to enter a period of rapid intensification. Extremely deep "standing" convection is building on the Northern side and is chock full of lighting. The ragged eye is quickly contracting and gaining symmetry. OUtflow looks great on SE Quandrant. Get ready... Nassau is going to get clobbered. I'm talking about on the GFS at day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.