Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Tibet said: Interesting fact. But given CMAS/WEA went operational in 2012 this would make for the first major landfall with the system.... obviously, there is no way to nail down just how this may affected the local populations, without a doubt it will save some lives. Wonder what technological advancements we will start leveraging next to inform the populace. CMAS/WEA isn't going to be 100% effective. The technology wasn't mandatory in phones manufactured before 2010 so the market saturation won't be near complete until after 2021. Also, refub phones have had a tendency to have the WEA technology become disabled which dilutes the program's effectiveness. Hurricane statements aren't WEA capable either. That has to be covered under a Local Area Emergency (LAE) send by the county government. Only 60% of counties nationwide are IPAWS ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Core is looking increasingly healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I'd laugh myself unconscious if somehow the trough became sharp and sucked up Matthew all the way to New England. It'd be like Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 964 MB dropsonde with 9 knot surface wind. Pressure remains steady-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12z GFS track is a bit SW of 6z run -- would be a direct hit to Andros Island, which is the Bahamas "fattest" island -- might knock a few mbs off Matt's strength, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The trough is now significantly more amplified over the Plains on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: CMAS/WEA isn't going to be 100% effective. The technology wasn't mandatory in phones manufactured before 2010 so the market saturation won't be near complete until after 2021. Also, refub phones have had a tendency to have the WEA technology become disabled which dilutes the program's effectiveness. Hurricane statements aren't WEA capable either. That has to be covered under a Local Area Emergency (LAE) send by the county government. Only 60% of counties nationwide are IPAWS ready. I learn something new everyday, thxs for the informed reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Meanwhile Matthew is a tick West off the SE FL coast, with major implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GFS wants to take Matthew West of or just over Bahama's West Side Nat'l Park. Farthest West it's been in a few runs. Imo, that will be the threshold for a FL landfall....track on the Western side of that isle or to the West will virtually ensure a FL landfall. To the east, still potential LF but obviously a lower chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Close to Hurricane force winds at Palm Beach 03z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looks like a landfall takes place East of Lake Okeechobee around 06z-07z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 fl landfall this run and still heading inland at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Definite landfall, somewhere around PBI or Port St Lucie and then comes completely onshore near Palm Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 10 minutes ago, das said: Core is looking increasingly healthy. Yeah both in radar and satellite representation. I could see this start to drop in pressure very quickly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This run would bring TS conditions to Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 One of the highest temperature spreads in/out of the eye. Combined with the comments above it does appear we may be on our way toward a more significant organization attempt. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 15:40ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304 Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 23Observation Number: 27A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 15:19:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°54'N 75°09'W (21.9N 75.15W)B. Center Fix Location: 137 statute miles (221 km) to the NNE (19°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,783m (9,131ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 350° at 69kts (From the N at ~ 79.4mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open in the west, WM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section:Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the E (88°) from the flight level center at 15:25:00ZDropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 9kts (From the ESE at 10mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 23z Friday, center right over JAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 crawling near jax at 60. making a bit of a ne turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I remember the explosive development of Andrew, I hope this isn't going to be a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Bad run for Daytona Beach. Not sure if they are built to handle a storm like this since this type of track is so rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Please read This thread is going way to fast and its hard to get good analysis from professional mets and people with a good background in meteorology. Please don't ask what is going to happen in my backyard or newbie questions. If you don't have something of merit to add, then just read and don't post. Too important of a weather event to have a ton of people with no basis in fact to be posting meaningless banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GFS. 4 runs. 4 results. Trademark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Trough sharper and slower to move out. Matthew starting to be pulled Northward, hugging the coast at the FL/GA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew may also provide us with our first issuance of an Extreme Wind Warning (EWW). These are only issued for the landfall eyewall of a category 3 or greater hurricane. This product replaces the old standard of issuing a tornado warning for a eyewall landfall. More details on the Extreme Wind Warning product at http://products.weather.gov/PDD/EWW.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Night and day with the trough, as compared to 06z. Sharp and digging vs completely flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The center reemerges off the GA coast 13/14z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 How does the GFS typically do within 48 for tropical systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hr 72 low is slightly north of 6z, demolishing rains hitting Charleston, low track won't be much different pre loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Good news is many hurricane models still keep the center off the coast of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Brings back memories of the mid-2000s... NOUS42 KNHC 051401 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EDT WED 05 OCTOBER 2016 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCTOBER 2016 TCPOD NUMBER.....16-132 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE MATTHEW FLIGHT 0NE - TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49 A. 06/1730Z,2030Z,2330Z A. 07/0000Z B. AFXXX 2814A MATTHEW B. NOAA9 2914A MATTHEW C. 06/1500Z C. 06/1730Z D. 25.7N 78.2W D. NA E. 06/0700Z TO 06/2330Z E. NA F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT FLIGHT THREE- NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74 A. 06/2000Z A. 07/O230Z,0530Z,0830Z B. NOAA3 3014A MATTHEW B. AFXXX 3114A MATTHEW C. 06/1800Z C. 07/0015Z D. 26.0N 78.5W D. 27.0N 79.2W E. 06/2000Z TO 07/0000Z E. 06/0800Z TO 06/1430Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX - NOAA 43 A. 07/1200Z A. 07/0800Z B. NOAA9 3214A MATTHEW B. NOAA3 3314A MATTHEW C. 07/0530Z C. 07/0600Z D. NA D. 27.8N 79.5W E. NA E. 07/0800Z TO 07/1200Z F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT FLIGHT SEVEN - TEAL 75 A. 07/1130Z,1430Z,1730Z D. 28.2N 80.1W B. AFXXX 3414A MATTHEW E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1730Z C. 07/0930Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES AND A P-3 MISSION EVERY 12 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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