PTC Matthew

[snow1]

Any impact on the east coast?

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

14 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Any impact on the east coast?

Rides the coast from Fort Lauderdale to Charleston. Right on the coast until Savannah and then about 50 miles off the coast until Charleston. 

[RU848789]

And the Euro does a loop similar to the GFS, although its loop doesn't come all the way back down to the Bahamas/FL, like the GFS does - it does a 3/4 loop and then pivots and head back to the NE from ~100 miles east of the northern Bahamas at day 7 to ~200 miles east of Norfolk at Day 10 and heading NE (model stops there).  No loop for the CMC, for what it's worth - just heads NE from landfall along the OBX on days 3-4 to Nova Scotia on days 5-6.  Can't make this crap up.  

[RU848789]

A point for folks not well versed in meteorology or how numerical models work.  I see people saying things like, "maybe the models will shift back to where they were 2 days ago and show a hit for New Jersey."  We're now 4/5 days or less away from the event in the NJ area, for example, and with the models, on average, the error bars shrink significantly with each day closer to the event (as reflected by the "cone of uncertainty" track forecasts from the NHC, where the error bars go to essentially zero as one reaches the event, which makes sense).  Large model swings are simply far less likely closer to an event (at Day 4, for example) than further away from an event (at Day 6 for example).   Beyond 5 days, anything is possible - just look at the GFS and Euro tonight, lol.  

[csnavywx]

Matt looks like a cat 2 hurricane at this point. It took a pretty good hit to the inner core on that last pass over Cuba and the CDO has shrunk considerably. It'll probably take 24-36 hours to undo the damage from that.

[NycStormChaser]

GFS is doing the loop again. 

[NycStormChaser]

Weakens to 999mb as it makes its circle east of Florida. 

[dan11295]

Can tell from radar and satellite that Matthew is in the process of reorganizing. Can see precip intensity increase around the eye even as it moves away. Key thing is now long is takes to get the eye closed off again.

[Morris]

Downgraded to cat 3

[PackGrad05]

With such an extreme shift in model trends, it would not surprise me to see a shift back the other way before it is all said and done.

[Cheeznado]

This is the model consensus after a few extreme outliers were removed- pretty far offshore, at least enough to blunt the worst impacts, Sticking to my guns that this is the most likely solution.

[David Reimer]

Dropsonde in the northern eye measured 134 knots at 925 MB and 118 knots at 850 MB. Obviously those winds aren't making it down to the surface, but Matthew certainly seems to have potential to ramp back up today. Starting to see improvements from nearby radars on the eye structure. Pressure 963-964MB. 

[isohume]

1 hour ago, seanick said:

GFS is doing the loop again. 

Fujiwhara effect. 

[Derecho!]

Pretty Much all of the 06Z GEFS look like they are doing a similar loop and then out to sea  - a few actually get Florida on the first pass though. 

[David Reimer]

Dropsonde in the north eye at 1140Z recorded 114 knot surface wind (131MPH). 

[Mallow]

12 minutes ago, isohume said:

Fujiwhara effect. 

The Fujiwhara effect causes two cyclones to rotate cyclonically around each other. The loop being shown is an anticyclonic loop, due to Matthew feeling the impacts of the first trough, but ultimately getting missed by it, and being steered back southward and westward around the periphery of the newly building high to the north and west.

[DopplerWx]

6 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Dropsonde in the north eye at 1140Z recorded 114 knot surface wind (131MPH). 

core looks really healthy on the cuba radar. should ramp up this afternoon/overnight.

[isohume]

3 minutes ago, Mallow said:

The Fujiwhara effect causes two cyclones to rotate cyclonically around each other. The loop being shown is an anticyclonic loop, due to Matthew feeling the impacts of the first trough, but ultimately getting missed by it, and being steered back southward and westward around the periphery of the newly building high to the north and west.

Yeah it's a combination and interaction of many things. It's a highly complicated pattern to model. Hate to work at the NHC right now.  

[SN_Lover]

2 minutes ago, isohume said:

Yeah it's a combination and interaction of many things. It's a highly complicated pattern to model. Hate to work at the NHC right now.  

Nicole looks like she is dying a quick death. Shear tore her apart lastnight. Doesn't even resemble a TS anymore. 

[isohume]

5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Nicole looks like she is dying a quick death. Shear tore her apart lastnight. Doesn't even resemble a TS anymore. 

Still a good circ with 45 kt sustained winds. Progged to persist as a TS a few days. We'll see. 

[NJwx85]

Looks like recon is headed in. Should be able to get an accurate assessment of the current state for the 11AM advisory.

 

[klw]

Matthew is looking stronger over the past hour or so.

 

Q: Lets say the GFS actually verified- how high would Matthew rank on the scale of top ACE storms in the Atlantic?

[LoveSN+]

1 minute ago, klw said:

Matthew is looking stronger over the past hour or so.

 

Q: Lets say the GFS actually verified- how high would Matthew rank on the scale of top ACE storms in the Atlantic?

Certainly can't answer that with precision. However, the GFS was showing Cat 5 potential on the loop, which certainly would have to place it very high on the scale.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

https://youtu.be/gC_6rSLlXgQ

The Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS is urging people to get their stuff in gear.

[KPITSnow]

36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Cuba gave Matthew all he could handle, but luckily that's well past him and we have some resemblance of an eye starting to reappear on IR.

 

I would actually have hoped Cuba would have torn apart Matthew more....we don't need a cat 4 or 5 hurricane scraping the entire Florida coast. 

 

 

[LithiaWx]

What does the wind shear look like over the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida?  Is Matthew moving into perfect conditions?  Or just slightly favorable?

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

He just had a big flare up of convection.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I would actually have hoped Cuba would have torn apart Matthew more....we don't need a cat 4 or 5 hurricane scraping the entire Florida coast. 

 

 

This is not the place for this discussion.

[dan11295]

We will have to watch the 12Z GFS/UKie/Euro in particular. I know both the 6Z GFS and 0z Euro brought the center right to the coast. Havent checked the UKMET.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks to me guidance is reaching somewhat of a consensus since 18z yesterday irt Florida. Guidance that was inland or had LF on the coast have adjusted a few ticks East ( a few still have LF but are slowly adjusting). Guidance that was 100+ miles East of FL coast have ticked West. All camps seem to be coming to a central point which would track Matthew 20-60 miles roughly off the FL coast. It will still be close enough for serious impacts but for those that key on actual landfall, I think we are lowering those chances as we get closer. Obviously anything could happen and a wobble could bring it onshore, but if you do the comparisons among the model camps since 18z yesterday, this is how I am seeing it.