Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hit Miami? Threaten the Southeast? PORQUE NO LOS DOS? this may be my favorite model run of all time for sheer preposterousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looking at the Barometric Pressure on the loop, the second hit in Florida would be Cat 4 again, with a Barometric Pressure of 925mb per the High Res GFS on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This run may go down in history as one of the craziest thing I've ever seen... Where were you when you witnessed the 00z October 5th... the run that changed the world forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Miami is getting crushed at 219 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Neither should be thrown out. It's a possible evolution of steering flow if the cyclone gets left behind by the trough. It's also beyond 150 hrs out. The main focus is the short term trends with the coastline and 96 hrs. Anyone throwing out the EC because of the loop is an imbecile. In the Atlantic and worldwide, there is a long and rich history of wacky loops, zigs, zags, etc. for tropical cyclones, even out and back for thousands of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Excuse me while I was celebrating the Jays win, but that 00z GFS is quite possibly the most insane thing I've seen on a model involving the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Chaos. I wonder if the actual outcome is something like this -- storm temporarily held back at surface by steep terrain of eastern Cuba, but has enough momentum to rebound forward next 3-6 hours, models picked up on the delay but not the rebound, and the loop turns out to be a figment, less sophisticated GEM didn't catch the delay and went on its merry way as before. An alternative scenario to monitor -- storm accelerates now and rushes to get into the trough before it is taken away, ends up just being a fast tour of the outer coastal waters , perhaps a minimal landfall in e NC and very fast motion NE across New England Sunday. The loop is plausible too, Nicole has created a sort of block on zonal escape so it's either phase or loop. I still think it will phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Tibet said: This run may go down in history as one of the craziest thing I've ever seen... Where were you when you witnessed the 00z October 5th... the run that changed the world forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 i don't know whether to laugh or cry at the 00Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, tcb72 said: i don't know whether to laugh or cry at the 00Z GFS Yep...barely misses Miami again....can it loop again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Getting close to a Cat 5 on the second approach. I can't believe what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Ends up hitting Cat 5 when hitting Florida, Jesus Christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 UKMET,EURO, and GFS are now seeing this weird "loop". In fact, there was ensemble support. Well, wouldn't this be something for the history books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Bahamas are relatively shallow water - while very warm, is there enough oceanic heat content with that shallow depth to support that strong a storm passing through the same area twice? I could see this maintaining strength if looping over the loop current, but the Bahamas are another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Does Matt attempt to visit the north east on his second attemptlol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Fascinating system to track. Isn't this a wondrous place?! I've seen many looping tropical systems over the years. One sat off the coast of North Carolina for days and did 2 or 3 loops before finally making landfall. Would not surprise me in the least if this solution verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Tracks northward at 264 and slams into New England lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Loop appears implausible to me, the blocking high isn't that strong by October standards. A long-duration meander in October is not out of the question but has usually happened with 1035-1040 mb highs further north. The Canadian model may have inadvertently hit on the right solution by not being fine tuned enough to catch the east Cuban delay which then may not be as significant as the GFS has calculated. However, to get north fast enough Matthew has to accelerate and get 12-18 hours ahead of the GFS timetable or not approach FL quite as close. We'll have to see what the 00z Euro does, if it goes back to another outcome or a simpler solution then it may be a cavalcade of errors. At this point, nobody between Miami and Boston should assume they are out of the woods, or in the crosshairs, or even getting only one visit from Matthew. Chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: That GFS run is one of the most amazing model runs of all time. jburns,. I quoted you so you would see this. Any chance we can get Amwx on storm mode to clean some of this mess up? Oh and thanks for what you do here also! I think we can handle one thread without putting the whole board into storm mode. If Matthew does that crazy ass loop and board insanity surfaces we can reconsider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The GFS is similar to the King. Can't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 18 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Ends up hitting Cat 5 when hitting Florida, Jesus Christ. Doesn't hit Florida. Still manages to avoid snapping the major cane landfall streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 And not a single CONUS landfall. Well played GFS...well played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The interesting per about the 00Z GFS is despite the utter insanity, it does not actually make land fall in the US. Only thing that would've made it more insane was it recurving into the NE once it gets past the Carolinas after the loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Well then, model consensus has nailed down an eastern Canada landfall on a weekend. We just don't know which one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 28 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: That GFS run is one of the most amazing model runs of all time. This makes it even more amazing. Brad Panovich @wxbrad 16m16 minutes ago The real kicker is the 0z GFS had 20 dropsondes & 20 extras RAOBS in it. #Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 They probably need to get the gulfstream up sampling the ridge and trough now more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 If the loop is an error and the solution is closer to the GEM, then the errors are reduced if Nicole loops around 60W and gradually becomes the storm depicted in the second half of the loop, although probably just a TS or cat-1 cane, then also if that dies out but the new invest north of S America follows a Matthew track and ends up in the Bahamas in a week. The next NHC discussion and cone will be something. I wonder if there's a crisis meeting underway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Euro seems to be heading back toward its' loopy-dee-loop scenario from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The Euro looks almost exactly like the GFS. It's a bit north on the loop at 168, but it's really close. Probably just the time difference in runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Headed North at 192hr. Never makes it back to the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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