Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Well, GFS is going to be an extreme anticyclonic loop of the EC type ridiculed earlier (but shown on a bunch of EC ensemble members for a while). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Hadn't looked at the satellite in a while... But damn Matthew's core has really taken one to the chin because of Cuba. Not a devastating blow to the cirulation, but a significant one nonetheless... I haven't looked at sat for 6 hours...and just looked.. couldn't believe it was still over Cuba. wow...it was literally stuck there for hours, with such an ez escape route too. surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is going to try to take this West again doing a loop. I didn't want to be the first one to say this lol Whatever happens... some needs to save a gif of this run for posterity's sake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looks like after the FL scrape, 00z GFS is gonna send this thing out to sea and loop back South. Where it goes, who knows. Man, the loop scenario seems plausible as much as I've seen it today on various modeling/ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 What would it take for him to go behind the front? If that's even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, pcbjr said: I was about to when ROOSTA popped in with a very good comment. Tell your Dad to go look at some video. Tell him to get 30 gallons of water, a bunch of propane, lots of ice, mac and canned tuna, to go ahead and dump his frig and freezer now (fish stinks in the kitchen after defrosting for 3 days and a cooler won't save anything past 48 hours or so) and to prepare for days of no A/C - the A/C thing typically gets folks thinking. First and foremost be safe my neighbor, and to all others to be effected. If one googles or searches the NOAA site I think one could find the URL specifically designed for surge. Remember looking at it for Hermine just didn't save it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, larrye said: I have a friend who is a met who says that they are not as reliable and have seen it posted many times here. But maybe that has changed. Grrr.... And it's been debunked. Especially inside of 72hrs. Search for poster 'dtk' and has detailed explanations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Scott747 said: Grrr.... And it's been debunked. Especially inside of 72hrs. Search for poster 'dtk' and has detailed explanations. Thanks, will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Jeanne intensified as it did its anticyclonic loop as the trough missed it, IIRC. But that was in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: Jeanne intensified as it did its anticyclonic loop as the trough missed it, IIRC. But that was in August. That was actually in late September 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Not that it matters that far out in a model run, but if the GFS does loop this back S and SW, whatever remains of Matthew will be annihilated by shear with heights like that over the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Whatever parts of the Bahamas missed the first pass get hit hard on the loop return. Christ almighty FL might get nailed twice this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Ironically, cmc has decided to come further north after Carolina's, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: Jeanne intensified as it did its anticyclonic loop as the trough missed it, IIRC. But that was in August. Jeanne also crushed me on the heels of Francis - NO THANK YOU loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just awful for some, having to dodge it twice, if the loop idea holds weight. Good luck down south, be smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 14 minutes ago, larrye said: I have a friend who is a met who says that they are not as reliable and have seen it posted many times here. But maybe that has changed. It's mostly a myth. Refer to this NCEP presentation. You can see the skill scores for yourself here as well. Notice how there's little if any difference. In fact, over the last 30 days the combined skill of the 6/18 cycles have come out ahead of the 0/12 cycles for D5 850mb vector wind skill in the tropics...albeit barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hate to be this guy, but... People threw out the Euro because of the loop, why not the GFS too? I'm throwing it out until we get multiple continuous runs showing it, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, bdgwx said: It's mostly a myth. Refer to this NOAA presentation. Many thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I understand the potential loop is still days away but how much precedent is there for the same area getting hit hard twice (Bahamas, Florida, or both) by the same storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Mandatory Evac for sprinkles it's starting to look like. If you don't up your game I am going to mandatorily evacuate you from posting for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 lol it does a complete loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: It's mostly a myth. Refer to this NOAA presentation. The reason you see it on this board so often is about 99% time, it is claimed by someone that was getting 12" inches of snow from a 12Z run but only getting 6" of snow from an 18Z run. There are infinite series of crutches for weenies. The big tropical one is the "making its own environment" one when a weenie is disappointed they wont get hit by all the models, trying to come up with a reason they are all wrong. There is a tiny grain of truth to this for a few storms but it is massively abused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, jburns said: If you don't up your game I am going to mandatorily evacuate you from posting for a few days. my bad, had too much mountain dew. i'll go to sleep. (or try to) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Pretty intense on the second Bahamas pass 8 days from now on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hate to be this guy, but... People threw out the Euro because of the loop, why not the GFS too? I'm throwing it out until we get multiple continuous runs showing it, but that's just me. Neither should be thrown out. It's a possible evolution of steering flow if the cyclone gets left behind by the trough. It's also beyond 150 hrs out. The main focus is the short term trends with the coastline and 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Derecho! said: Pretty intense on the second Bahamas pass 8 days from now on the GFS. Yeah, I think it hits near Miami. Absolutely crazy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: lol it does a complete loop. Holy crap! And it can't be that out of the realm of possibility because the Euro showed something similar earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hate to steal a term often used in winter storms, but this GFS run is a BECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceicebyebye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 if this model depiction is the one that actually happens, with the cyclone remaining intact for the second approach, it would be a black swan level event for the entire US it probably won't, and that is very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, jburns said: If you don't up your game I am going to mandatorily evacuate you from posting for a few days. That GFS run is one of the most amazing model runs of all time. jburns,. I quoted you so you would see this. Any chance we can get Amwx on storm mode to clean some of this mess up? Oh and thanks for what you do here also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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