larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: You betcha - and I'm inland by 60 miles. I live in NY but I'm actually in Delray in Palm Beach County. Too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: looks like it will miss sc entirely. hard right. i'll trade you fla for sc right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Tibet said: As we get closer to this "event" I think there will be a good number of weenies realizing just how bad this is shaping up to be... not to fear monger but watching these frames is giving me chills... Yeah, I don't understand the excitement some folks get over a possible landfalling hurricane that has the potential to cause major damage and loss of life. Sure it's fun to see what it does if it stays out in the open ocean, but hitting land is where the fun stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Ok guys, how about this for a first posting. My Dad lives in Brevard County on Merritt Island, FL (32953) and just got word about a mandatory evacuation. So far he says he isnt leaving. He lives on a canal that connects to the Banana River. What sort of preliminary storm surge numbers are we looking at for that part of the state. I am beside myself that he is making a colossal mistake. Please help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 looks like it will miss sc entirely. hard right.Yep. And the flow looks even more zonal than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikesNaturesFury Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, larrye said: Depends upon the model. The GFS and NAM update around 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z. The 00z and 12z are generally considered to be more reliable because (as I understand it) they consume more input data. Thank you very much larrye!!!! I only wanted to try to figure out when the best time was to look for updates. You've given me that. When does ECMWF update? If ECMWF is NAM, please forgive my ignorance. Thanks again!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Its def more offshore of SC. more progressive "trough" that isn't digging as deep, causes the ridging over texas to expand, and keeps it offshore moreso than 18z GFS. The difference in the troughing over the Middle of the conus is A LOT flatter, Faster to kick east this storm it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWGAstormdawg Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Storm surge from Brevard to Jax will be very substantial. Might even approach record levels for that section of the peninsula. Still a heavily populated area even though not like Broward or Dade. Inland watches are being initiated for Orlando too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: looks like it will miss sc entirely. hard right. After all the hoop-la today....ughhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hate to go weenie but anyone on the coast of Florida on here should he ready to evacuate at a moment's notice so you don't get stuck in traffic, have your disaster kit ready, which should include a weeks supply of food, water, and medication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GFS initialized just a tad off on intensity and a smidge S and a tick or two E of actual position. Which puts the track to the left out in time. It's fluid with no absolutes, just an obs. Watching the 11pm news was refreshing. Instead of lead stories of shootings, kidnappings, rapes and robbery Matthew was the only story, loved the filming of empty shelves of TP. Many coastal Counties are implementing mandatory evacs. With surgical precision Big Brother is getting the word out and to this I applaud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Another thought - by staying south and west in the short to medium term, Mathew may end up with some phenomenonal poleward outflow in the interval just before it gets into the SW shear. Wouldn't surprise me to see it get very big and get strong, as we've seen with recurving hurricanes at similarly low latitudes elsewhere in the Western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: 0z hurricane models all shifted far east north of Carolina's. Unless we have a few days of changes, hopes of landfill hit up here are slowly sinking u guys do realize, models will be flip-flopping over every little unexpected wobble at this point. Just like how tonight's longer than expected wobble west over Cuba hasn't even been recognized by the models yet...and will most likely cause 6z or 12z models to flop back west again. people need to just chill.. let things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Wow if that were to verify i'm right in the bullseye . That would be a major disruption and life threatening situation not that it isn't already for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWGAstormdawg Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Here is a link to Brevard County evacuation plans. http://www.brevardcounty.us/emergencymanagement/preparedness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Shawn said: Basically an IMBY question so I will just say he's a moron. This epitomizes everything that's wrong with the forum. It's a legit question and should be answered with respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 18 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said: OK, sry to ask again. Do all pertinent models update at 00z and 12z? I'm just trying to understand. Again, if I should be posting this somewhere else, please let me know. Try this link" http://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/p/weather-model-run-times.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Hate to go weenie but anyone on the coast of Florida on here should he ready to evacuate at a moment's notice so you don't get stuck in traffic, have your disaster kit ready, which should include a weeks supply of food, water, and medication. I'm in Delray but about 6 miles inland. I think we should be ok in terms of surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 0z GFS: 18z GFS: 12z EURO might have been onto something with the missed trough solution. Not sure how far east it gets kicked this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said: Thank you very much larrye!!!! I only wanted to try to figure out when the best time was to look for updates. You've given me that. When does ECMWF update? If ECMWF is NAM, please forgive my ignorance. Thanks again!!! NAM is a short-range model. ECMWF is the European. ECMWF updates at 0z and 12z, but ends up coming in around 1-3am and 1-3pm Eastern Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Shawn said: Basically an IMBY question so I will just say he's a moron. I'll 2nd this response. Another point, figuring out exact storm surge numbers (or estimates) is really hard at this point for areas along the coast. As a shift in the center by 20 miles east or west will make a tremendous difference. Bottom line is that he is being incredulously stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 yea, she starts drifting South Eastward.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: This epitomizes everything that's wrong with the forum. It's a legit question and should be answered with respect. I was about to when ROOSTA popped in with a very good comment. Tell your Dad to go look at some video. Tell him to get 30 gallons of water, a bunch of propane, lots of ice, mac and canned tuna, to go ahead and dump his frig and freezer now (fish stinks in the kitchen after defrosting for 3 days and a cooler won't save anything past 48 hours or so) and to prepare for days of no A/C - the A/C thing typically gets folks thinking. There may be no issues - but if there are, a tiny bit of prep can make it bearable. and leaving if you are not prepped is even better ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hadn't looked at the satellite in a while... But damn Matthew's core has really taken one to the chin because of Cuba. Not a devastating blow to the cirulation, but a significant one nonetheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikesNaturesFury Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, NCHurricane said: Try this link" http://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/p/weather-model-run-times.html Thank you so much!!! You people are great!! Those who helped answer my questions, I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 22 minutes ago, larrye said: Depends upon the model. The GFS and NAM update around 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z. The 00z and 12z are generally considered to be more reliable because (as I understand it) they consume more input data. The 6Z/18Z model thing is a myth. Whatever tiny differences in data availability there are is overwhelmed by the 6Z and 18Z data being 6 hours newer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Hadn't looked at the satellite in a while... But damn Matthew's core has really taken one to the chin because of Cuba. Not a devastating blow to the cirulation, but a significant one nonetheless... Pressure is up to 960 MB on recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Derecho! said: The 6Z/18Z model thing is a myth. Whatever tiny differences in data availability there are is overwhelmed by the 6Z and 18Z data being 6 hours newer. I have a friend who is a met who says that they are not as reliable and have seen it posted many times here. But maybe that has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: u guys do realize, models will be flip-flopping over every little unexpected wobble at this point. Just like how tonight's longer than expected wobble west over Cuba hasn't even been recognized by the models yet...and will most likely cause 6z or 12z models to flop back west again. people need to just chill.. let things play out. Dude, you jump back and forth... no one said its over, read what I said, little by little it's been getting worse track wise up here. There's been no west shift shove 06z north of Carolina. Just giving you a fact there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GFS is going to try to take this West again doing a loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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