Tibet Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, Wannabehippie said: That is a general rule of thumb for any storm in the Atlantic/Caribbean. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 12z HWRF deepens Mathew to 952mb by 90hrs. While it's likely too aggressive, once the TUTT pulls out as modeled, it should be bombs away. The consensus track appears to be a close call for Jamaica with the Eastern shore possibly getting into the Western eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016 ...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 67.0W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Some of the globals are hinting at a cutoff mid-level low forming over the GOM. Depending on the strength of that cutoff feature and its position relative to the eastern ridge could be a determining factor on any US landfall. If the feature is stronger and moves SW of Matthew when the hurricane is progressing through the Bahamas, the steering flow may veer southeasterly enough to impact the SE coast. A lot of uncertainties though. Does the resolving of that cutoff actually occur IRL. Does it retrograde or move SE? Obviously a stronger cutoff flow against more pronounced ridging would probably have some kind of interaction with Matthew's motion after passing Cuba or none at all if that low's development doesn't pan out.The JMA model, though not necessarily a good model for focusing on the hurricane itself, does do a decent job at resolving upper features like cutoffs. It has the ULL interacting with Matthew to its immediate SW. The GFS resolves a weaker cutoff but it does show up on Sunday/Monday.Going to be watching the ECMWF closely for this feature as we get into tomorrow. Interesting how that one feature developing or not developing could be the difference for a CONUS landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 It is probably too big a challenge for the models to work out the interactions between hurricane, Great Lakes cutoff low and advancing western trough. It would only take a bit of extra forward momentum before the northward turn to put Matthew much more into alignment with the western trough and provide for an alternate scenario where the hurricane goes into the eastern Gulf, makes a landfall around Mobile and heads north in conjunction with the trough around Thursday 6th. I won't be surprised if this is the actual outcome. But if it does turn north around Jamaica and head for the Bahamas, then I think the GFS has the more realistic looking solution because that decaying upper low will be no impediment to a landfall anywhere north of about Wilmington NC, if there's an error in the modelling it seems more likely to be under-estimating the rate of decay of that feature and therefore not allowing the west-central trough to make somewhat faster progress to capture Matthew around NJ or NY. So that would be my other preferred scenario, however for now I am going to stake a claim on the marginal outlier of a south of Cuba west of Florida outcome. And that could be a cat-4 storm quite easily. The Gulf stream solution would probably max out at cat-3 when east of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Even if the GFS is right at this point I would assume the average margin of error is 50-100 miles so this still has to be watched closely here in FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Matthew got a core. Bombs away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Pressure continues to fall... 985ish according to recon, unless I'm misreading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Yup. 984.9 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 The latest GFDL predicts it to be near Kingston Jamaica. There would be up to 109kt onshore wind at Kingston. Looks like the spread of models is something like western Jamaica to western Haiti in the 72-96 hr time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: The latest GFDL predicts it to be near Kingston Jamaica. There would be up to 109kt onshore wind at Kingston. Looks like the spread of models is something like western Jamaica to western Haiti in the 72-96 hr time frame. 18Z GFDL between hour 78 and 84 shows ridiculous RI. Goes from 949 and 102kt to 933 and 130kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 18Z GFDL between hour 78 and 84 shows ridiculous RI. Goes from 949 and 102kt to 933 and 130kt. Totally feasible now that this has a core ahead of schedule. Bathtub water and lower shear and higher RH in its path. Bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Down to 982.6 already? Anomalous reading or is that legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Seems like the HH's missed the center to the N, quite a bit of a jog SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: Seems like the HH's missed the center to the N, quite a bit of a jog SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 About 18kts between the last 2 VDM's.. still haulin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Surface winds between 70-80 knots recorded. Probably upgraded to at the very least 70 knots by 11pm. 011800 1420N 06838W 6965 03037 9873 +127 +104 053052 054 077 010 00 011830 1421N 06839W 6967 03045 9890 +123 +099 057058 062 074 010 00 011900 1422N 06841W 6969 03047 9929 +121 +121 055059 069 077 027 03 011930 1424N 06842W 6973 03055 9952 +120 +120 048069 076 068 034 03 012000 1425N 06843W 6961 03076 9952 +111 +111 050065 067 071 013 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Mathew is now entering a period of RI!!! And moving SW. Model defiance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, SN_Lover said: Mathew is now entering a period of RI!!! And moving SW. Model defiance! Can you tell by sat or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Can you tell by sat or something? AFAIK the NHC def is a sustained pressure drop greater than 1.75 mb an hr... Without getting into the details too closely it looks like it is currently exceeding 2mb an hr atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Mathew is now entering a period of RI!!! And moving SW. Model defiance! Love it. Looks like recon found a 78kt SFC wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 8 hours ago, Tibet said: Does the "Stronger the storm, the earlier the turn north" still apply? 8 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: That is a general rule of thumb for any storm in the Atlantic/Caribbean. I wouldn't start getting bum'd out about that aspect ...just yet. A stronger than expected scenario, generally makes them more sluggish to move out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 good symmetry now w/ that CDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 The WSW motion has been modeled extensively, though it might be slightly ahead of schedule. The ridge is definitely amped up tonight.I don't think it has started rapid intensification just yet. It would need to maintain an average of 1.75mb per hr for a duration of 24 hrs or a total of 42 mb drop in 24 hrs. Matthew is steadily strengthening however. Though upper level conditions are steadily improving, it is still fighting some mid-level shear. Consider that any WSW motion from 850 to 500 mb level is still being slightly tilted up against the opposing SSW flow at 400 to 300 mb due to the weakening TUTT and PV anomaly. That feature is temporary per modeling, weakening and lifting NW, but it still keeping the system from bombing out.Here is the radar:http://www.meteo.cw/rad_loop_ppi.php?Lang=Eng&St=TNCC&Sws=R11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Anyone else notice the face pop out of the CDO on the AVN 1:45 utc image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Anyone else notice the face pop out of the CDO on the AVN 1:45 utc image? We have a smiling hurricane on our hands. Lol On another note, eye wall looks almost entirely closed on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Anyone else notice the face pop out of the CDO on the AVN 1:45 utc image? chinese weather modification or just the ghost of john hope? it is kind of creepy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 981.4 mb (28.98 inHg) from recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 11pm advisory: 983mb, 80mph, moving W (really WSW) at 14mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Only a 10 knot increase in forecast winds over the next 36 hours... eh I'm not so sure about that. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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