Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It will not come off Cuba a major hurricane and I never thought it would for one minute despite the NHCs forecast. Euro has it at 969mb Tomorrow 12zI would totally take the bet that it comes off at least 110 knots. This is a massive circulation and should not be underestimated. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It's certainly spending a lot more time over Cuba than was previously modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 0z hurricane models all shifted far east north of Carolina's. Unless we have a few days of changes, hopes of landfill hit up here are slowly sinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 You can see the core disruption better here. Amazing structure right before landfall and a curious NW jog it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, yuki neko said: You can see the core disruption better here. Amazing structure right before landfall and a curious NW jog it looks like. OUCH; can I relax now? Stupid question intended .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Almost 50-100 miles East shift by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: OUCH; can I relax now? Stupid question intended .... Well if land friction causes it to make a hard left and traverse the entire spine of Cuba, then the land interaction may cause the wind field to expand until there is nothing but a massive expanse of light breezes. No one is safe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This nearly stationary motion of Matthew that we are currently seeing will likely have big implication in future track.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, yuki neko said: Well if land friction causes it to make a hard left and traverse the entire spine of Cuba, then the land interaction may cause the wind field to expand until there is nothing but a massive expanse of light breezes. No one is safe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Almost 50-100 miles East shift by the NAM. Only after the run gets out to 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Cuba appears to be doing a serious number on Matthew - he is transversing al mountains. Edit: moved offshore more now, was looking at older loop. My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Almost 50-100 miles East shift by the NAM. Huh? Slight shift West closer to Florida coast this run vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 OUCH; can I relax now? Stupid question intended ....Not really. Notice how intense the eastern eyewall has remained. Also, notice the excellent banding structure with the northern eyewall and circulation before it crosses into the northeast coastline of Cuba. Clearly, restricted inflow on the western half of the circulation is causing fill and disruption. That's a large stretch of mountainous terrain and landmass. However, its looking pretty healthy besides. If it can maintain the excellent banding and part of the eyewall remains intense, it will wrap around quickly once it departs and restrengthen.I'd say this is a Cat 3 right now though. It might drop to a 2, but it probably won't stay down long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew is going to be fine. Both the GFS and Euro showed a brief WNW track over Eastern Cuba. Once offshore it will be back over bath water and shear is forecasted to be near zero. That's why nearly all the guidance has Matthew as an intense Hurricane near the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It's still a Cat 4 as of 11pm, it's moving away from the coast now, so I have no idea what some are posting about. ...THE EYE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBASent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Not really. Notice how intense the eastern eyewall has remained. Also, notice the excellent banding structure with the northern eyewall and circulation before it crosses into the northeast coastline of Cuba. Clearly, restricted inflow on the western half of the circulation is causing fill and disruption. That's a large stretch of mountainous terrain and landmass. However, its looking pretty healthy besides. If it can maintain the excellent banding and part of the eyewall remains intense, it will wrap around quickly once it departs and restrengthen. I'd say this is a Cat 3 right now though. It might drop to a 2, but it probably won't stay down long. Like I said - stupid question (which was intended) - maybe i should have said "rhetorical" - this guy ain't done yet .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looking at an image of eastern Cuba, and the current satellite image, Punta de Maisi is being absolutely smoked just now by the eastern eyewall of Matthew. official movement is still north at 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It's still a Cat 4 as of 11pm, it's moving away from the coast now, so I have no idea what some are posting about. ...THE EYE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBASent from my XT1585 using TapatalkI'm surprised they still have it a 4 to be honest. But i've explained my reasoning. It won't matter in 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I'm surprised they still have it a 4 to be honest. But i've explained my reasoning. It won't matter in 12-18 hours."Some weakening has occurred due to interaction with the mountains of eastern Cuba and western Haiti. However, latest reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the central pressure hasn't risen much and that the maximum winds have only decreased to an estimated 115 kt, keeping Matthew a dangerous category four hurricane."Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 My friend just told me that her building in Cocoa Beach just informed them all that there are mandatory evacuation orders there -- which is interesting, because I haven't seen that officially posted. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watches from Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet, and for Lake Okeechobee, have been changed to Hurricane Warnings. The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia county line. The Tropical Storm Watch from Seven Mile Bridge to Golden Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been added from Chokoloskee to Ocean Reef, and for Florida Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: My friend just told me that her building in Cocoa Beach just informed them all that there are mandatory evacuation orders there -- which is interesting, because I haven't seen that officially posted. Anyone else? All I've seen for Florida is some barrier islands in Brevard County, Merritt Island, and some mobile homes in certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 matthew's core actually looks pretty good, coming offshore cuba now. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=GMO&product=N0R&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just got a call from family down in Okracoke,NC that they will be making the drive up here to Buffalo,NY tomorrow because they are now under a mandatory evacuation. Seems a little early considering the latest trends with the models looking to be a little further S/E by the time it gets to that latitude. Ocracoke may get off with just a minor scraping if the model trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Just got a call from family down in Okracoke,NC that they will be making the drive up here to Buffalo,NY tomorrow because they are now under a mandatory evacuation. Seems a little early considering the latest trends with the models looking to be a little further S/E by the time it gets to that latitude. Ocracoke may get off with just a minor scraping if the model trend continues. Better safe then sorry policy, what I AM confused by is the lack of major costal evacs in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Just got a call from family down in Okracoke,NC that they will be making the drive up here to Buffalo,NY tomorrow because they are now under a mandatory evacuation. Seems a little early considering the latest trends with the models looking to be a little further S/E by the time it gets to that latitude. Ocracoke may get off with just a minor scraping if the model trend continues. Most likely due to the fact the only way off the island is by ferry. They wouldn't have much time to get folks to safety if the track shifts again and brings it right into the island. Especially since they have a limited number of ships to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Did they evacuate the Atlantis Resort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Did they evacuate the Atlantis Resort? They have some elevation for parts of Nassau and Paradise Island. Fossil uplifted reefs. My guess is you evacuate in place in well built buildings there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Not looking good for Miami by 36hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.