PTC Matthew

[phil882]

3 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

My thoughts: The large Euro spread looks bogus- the GFS has been pretty rock solid with a more north/east track- eastern NC or OTC still looks like the most likely scenario to me.

Why? I think it's reasonable to expect a large degree of uncertainty in the 8-10 day range given how many features are expected to play a role in Matthew's track

Understanding how the wind field of two discrete ridges, two discrete cutoff troughs affecting the steering flow Matthew at day 7 is probably going to be tricky to pinpoint at that time frame. Given that, I think blanket 10-20% chances of Matthew being located in the GoM to the far Bahamas seems quite reasonable. 

Yet 60-70% of the GEFS says Matthew will be offshore NC in 8 days. That seems very overconfident and is one of the major drawbacks of using the GEFS for TC track forecasting (since this is a very common occurrence). 

[CamSE-Wx]

00Z a tad bit more west and much slower than the 18Z. Just brushes the Outer Banks.

Something else I noticed, the GFS has the storm at hour 240 up by Nova Scotia, meanwhile the ECMWF has it down by the Bahamas still.

[tmagan]

2 hours ago, Bacon Strips said:

before people start getting all emo,  remember there are mountains over 5000 feet high in eastern CUBA...which could send Matt back to a TD in a heartbeat . 

That's the biggest thing to watch in the medium range. 

 

Cuba isn't wide enough to take a major hurricane to a tropical depression.

[Superstorm93]

I find the lack of banding concerning for anything outside slow intensification. These fake CDO-type presentations love to collapse by morning. The trades and shear argue that this will remain displaced, but we'll see what this looks like in the morning for now. 

[CamSE-Wx]

CMC 00Z run well west from earlier 12z, slams Cape Cod

[downeastnc]

Euro is way east, basically moves N then NE from the southern Bahamas, we are talking never closer than 300+ miles to the east coast.....Bermuda could be in trouble on this Euro run though.....

[Cheeznado]

Looking more and more like a miss east. That tight clustering with the hurricane models and GFS ensembles outweigh the few Euro ensemble members that bring it near FL or into the GOM. Best shot a skim by Hatteras and perhaps eastern New England.

[David Reimer]

Aircraft heading in from the north now. Peak FL wind of 80 knots with an unflagged 58-60 knot SFMR value. Anything higher than that has been flagged in rain. 

[David Reimer]

Well, it certainly has a much tighter inner core now! Looks like pressure is probably down to near or below 1000 millibars with a much tighter pressure gradient. We'll see what the dropsonde says. The LLC still looks to be just west of the strongest convection, but it's pretty impressive to see 70-80 knot FL winds on the west/northwest side of the circulation. That sucker has some spunk to it. 

[David Reimer]

Dropsonde splashdown with 995 MB using standard wind/pressure reduction. Last reading about 7 hours ago was 1002 MB, so a slow strengthening continues. Assuming it continues we should have a hurricane later this morning. 

[David Reimer]

Vortex has 995 MB, 80 knot FL wind, SFMR max of 64 knots. Matthew is right as the cusp of being a hurricane. Lets see if they can find the same or higher winds when they come in from the N/NE. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 11:53Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 11:32:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°07'N 65°27'W (14.1167N 65.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 300 statute miles (482 km) to the S (172°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,390m (4,560ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 59° at 80kts (From the ENE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) which was observed 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NW (311°) from the flight level center at 11:18:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 95° at 11kts (From the E at 13mph)

[DopplerWx]

6z gfs showed continued strengthening through landfall in cuba.  may be a tad on the weak side as it initialized at ~1003mb

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

Looking more and more like a miss east. That tight clustering with the hurricane models and GFS ensembles outweigh the few Euro ensemble members that bring it near FL or into the GOM. Best shot a skim by Hatteras and perhaps eastern New England.

 

Way too early to declare that yet.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

Looking more and more like a miss east. That tight clustering with the hurricane models and GFS ensembles outweigh the few Euro ensemble members that bring it near FL or into the GOM. Best shot a skim by Hatteras and perhaps eastern New England.

Way too early

This is still a week out.

[Cheeznado]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Way too early

This is still a week out.

Not declaring it, just saying that is more likely IMO. The consistency of the GFS ensembles and the Euro shift east lead me to that conclusion, but of course at this range my confidence is only in the moderate range.

[David Reimer]

997 on the latest pass through. Looks like we have ceased intensification for the time being. Winds remain very near hurricane strength, but just below.

[Superstorm93]

The ECMWF has shear never really fully abating over Matthew with the upper trough in the Gulf

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

[wthrmn654]

Anyone use http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

Allows you to click on each report live. Very detailed I like itr over tid bits updates way sooner.

[phil882]

43 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Not declaring it, just saying that is more likely IMO. The consistency of the GFS ensembles and the Euro shift east lead me to that conclusion, but of course at this range my confidence is only in the moderate range.

Ehh I'd error more on the side of caution than lead towards the GFS/GEFS. I say this mainly because the GEFS is normally under dispersive with TC track solutions, and would likely follow closely with what the deterministic run has.

The euro ensembles have about equal chances of a S FL impact (~20%) versus a out to sea track near Bermuda (~20%). I think that properly highlights the likelihood of either solution verifying, with a plethora of solutions in between. 

Also worth watching short-term trends today. If Matthew becomes more exposed from the convection than it is currently, it could be steered by the lower-level flow and end up deviating further south with a faster forward motion (because the low-level ridge is stronger than them mid-level ridge currently). 

 

[NJwx85]

[Morris]

Still a TS on the 11 am advisory.

[David Reimer]

2 minutes ago, Morris said:

Still a TS on the 11 am advisory.

Rightfully so too. Only SFMR values that support hurricane intensity are rain contaminated. Pressure looks like it is down to 995ish MB based on the dropsonde. It's just under hurricane strength at the moment. Honestly, I'm surprised it is doing so well considering the 15-20 knots of SW shear displacing the convection to the north/northeast. Maybe I'm just used to the crap storms we've dealt with the past few years. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

GFS looks west.

lol...8 more days of this stuff.

[jojo762]

11 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

GFS looks west.

lol...8 more days of this stuff.

Euro started as the western-track model, and the GFS was the eastern-track model... Now it's the opposite, lovely. 

[Tatamy]

12z GFS has a much sharper trough at 500mb in the Midwest.  The result is the storm comes straight up the coast and hits LI after 192 hrs.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro started as the western-track model, and the GFS was the eastern-track model... Now it's the opposite, lovely. 

Both Euro and GFS are also global non-tropical weather models. I'm not sure if their ensembles would be more useful here or not but I know during the winter months they are very useful at this range. The 2 main tropical models on trop tids have been relatively consistent till now aside from a few runs showing sub 915mb pressures. They haven't shown the huge track shifts from run-to-run if my memory serves me correctly.

[Windspeed]

The right front entrance of the TUTT may be weakening. 300-400 mb winds out of the SSW that have been keeping Mattthew in check aren't impeding as much on the MLC and, as a result, you can see it is starting to rotate more vertically aligned with the LLC on visible imagery. The globals continue to lift the TUTT NW and weaken it, allowing the anticyclone positioned over Venezuela to move over the central Caribbean. Most of the models show significant strengthening on Friday and Saturday when this occurs. With such a vigorous LLC, it won't take much alignment to allow Matthew to intensify.

[David Reimer]

Several SFMR reports of 65-66 knots unflagged in the last pass through the NE quad. We likely now have Hurricane Matthew. Pressure down to 993 MB.

[Tibet]

Does the "Stronger the storm, the earlier the turn north" still apply?

[Wannabehippie]

1 minute ago, Tibet said:

Does the "Stronger the storm, the earlier the turn north" still apply?

That is a general rule of thumb for any storm in the Atlantic/Caribbean.