Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Well I don't think people aren't paying attention. It seems more like the first to call something and get it right "wins", which is not how responsible analysis works. Reason why I asked for a Tech Thread with Matt, but looks like we're stuck with this. (and the occasional goobers that chime in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Like I said yesterday, we still have no clue what the hell is going to actually happen, aside from that it will get at least relatively close to the US coast. Stop living and dying with each run, catch a clue and realize the models have been like windshield wipers. Anyways, thus far, the islands haven't really effected strength much at all... Only impacts appear to be a less pretty/less organized core - which will change in a hurry past Cuba. Won't probably have to wait that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z HWRF then takes Mathew more or less up the Outerbanks to near Nags Head by Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hugo said: It's worth pointing out here that one single model run cannot, by definition, be a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 God, if there's this level of weenying right now imagine if we have a Blizzard this winter. Anyways Satellite Presentation is getting even better right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There was a storm in the 90s that literally sat off NC for like a week as a Cat 3 and never came onshore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_(1993) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 she's (I mean he) lookin good. still wonder if my sub-900 call will verify in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12 GFDL is a clear FL hit...runs inland the peninsula for over 24 hours before getting offshore around JAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Please, stay on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, David Reimer said: I remember this and a few other icons from the AmericanWX days. Looks like we need to roll them out. Really folks? Are we really going to degenerate into model fights every time a new run comes out? Many of you should know way better than hugging every model run down to a square mile. I've been lurking / lightly posting here since Joaquin... this is the only thing I've ever know. The infighting adds another dimension to tracking the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 48 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NavGEM or then NOGAPS was the first model to bring Isabel into VA and NC when everything else was up the coast into LI. We've come along way since then though. Yeah I remember that because only then NOGAPS had the correct Bermuda observations. Everything else initialized the ATL ridge too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 He's getting there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 18 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_(1993) Just remembered it was Felix in 1995 I was thinking of but I remember Emily too. I think the models and NHC did a good job forecasting that hard turn as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 ULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO HIT FAR EASTERN CUBA HARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Euro is late. Anyone know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Note: 2:00 PM EDT: ECMWF 12z products delayed at least 60-minutes as per @ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ryan Maue said on twitter Euro 60 minutes delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Damn. This storm just doesn't want to weaken. How populated is Eastern Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFridman29 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Euro is late. Anyone know why? Its delayed by 60 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 14 minutes ago, No snow for you said: You must be new here. Welcome I'm, uhh, old here and accustomed to much more heavy handed moderation. Although I think it's too early to say much for FL to NC the idea of a right turn OTS after NC does seem to be getting some pretty decent support in the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, TriPol said: Damn. This storm just doesn't want to weaken. How populated is Eastern Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I'm, uhh, old here and accustomed to much more heavy handed moderation. If they moderate too heavy, members leave / or don't post anymore. then people wonder why it's been so dead here. the moderating has improved much the last year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 There are a few favorable elements for intensification. 1) The track takes it over or to the west of the Bahamas where TCHP is higher 2) There is a moist airmass off the coast of FL right now that doesn't fully vacate so this may mitigate dry air entrainment (at least for awhile) typical of landmass interfactions and 3) the wind shear is forecasted to remain low at least until it reaches the Bahamas. A track similar to the GFDL or UKMET seems more likely to lead to a major hurricane landfall whereas a further north landfall, in say SC or NC, I could actually see being weaker due to 1) an increase in wind shear 2) lower TCHP in the Gulf Stream and 3) an increase in size and expanding wind field that adjusts the pressure/wind relationship we are currently seeing. Assuming, of course, that a landfall does happen. It would be the ultimate troll storm if it remained a major hurricane and rode the coast all the way and missed making a landfall on a technicality allowing the major landfalling hurricane futility streak to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Again, stay on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 it will take luck(very bad luck) but is becoming more and more possible the Matthew will move up and over MOST of the east coast of FL due to the angle of the coastline and the possible NNW movement..the large eye could stay half offshore the whole time slowing weakening with the front eyewall hititng the coastal cites This was my fear with FLOYD in 1999 but that made the turn further east sparing the above scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, wxmx said: Its times like this I wish that alksahuna (sp?) guy still posted on the board. He had experience forecasting typhoons in the Philippines and his understanding of island interaction blew away anyone else's that I've ever seen. A storm tracking through the 'pines is probably the best analog for the Windward Passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'd also like to point out that there's always the gulf stream and per current consensus, Matthew will be riding it for at least 24hrs off the coast of Florida. All given it doesn't make landfall of course. Current SSTs in the Gulf Stream are ~28-29c all the way up the coast until Cape Hatteras. Also of note is that SSTs are a degree or two cooler on the immediate coastline, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Nice site for tracking the latest info regarding the tropics http://www.spaghettimodels.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.