JC-CT Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Look at what's going on at H5 and compare it to the previous run. The trough is deeper and sharper this run.Not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Hugo said: The eyewall itself might brush Charleston, but I don't think you'd see it come onshore anywhere in this run. I mean, at 102, the center is a good 50+ miles offshore of MYR. LOL at "a good 50+ miles offshore" on a 4.5 day track forecast for a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Look at what's going on at H5 and compare it to the previous run. The trough is deeper and sharper this run. Yeah, but the WAR breaks up sooner, that allows for a more eastward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 In fact, I think one of the biggest threats that this GFS run would bring is one of the biggest ever evacuations that turns out to be for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hugo said: The eyewall itself might brush Charleston, but I don't think you'd see it come onshore anywhere in this run. I mean, at 102, the center is a good 50+ miles offshore of MYR. yea not quite a landfall but about as close as it gets in chs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, Drz1111 said: LOL at "a good 50+ miles offshore" on a 4.5 day track forecast for a tropical cyclone. I'm talking about taking the run literally. I'm not sure MYR would see Cat 1 winds, much less eyewall winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ukmet has it just west of Savannah, GA at 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, wxmx said: Yeah, but the WAR breaks up sooner, that allows for a more eastward motion. I see what others are saying. The slower motion initially prevented it from making it far enough North. I think Matthew almost has to come onshore in the Carolinas in order to have an impact from the Mid-Atlantic northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, burrel2 said: Ukmet has it just west of Savannah, GA at 96hrs. You have 12z already? I think that is the 00z run you are mentioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Trying to understand: Does a trough "capture" a hurricane or push it out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Ukmet has it just west of Savannah, GA at 96hrs. I think it's been showing that for a while now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Trough is shallower this run than 6z. Not sure why everyone thinks its sharper. Its less negative, not as deep, and more progressive over the top of Matthew this run. This leads to a further east result once up to SC/NC boarder compared to 6z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Trying to understand: Does a trough "capture" a hurricane or push it out to sea?Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ignoring the models, a run along the coast is incredibly tricky to forecast. If it follows the geography of the coastline, any minor deviation in track could literally be the difference between a disturbing wind damage path or light damage and the inconveniences of heavy rain. Very difficult forecast even within 48 hours. Going to require a lot of patience on the part of coastal residents. You just have to prepare for the worst and hope you get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS still digging the trough, which is slower but still plenty amplified enough. All that really translates to is a slower movement of Matthew so far. Yeah it wasn't as pronounced through 42, but damn it's amplified and progressive at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, Hugo said: In fact, I think one of the biggest threats that this GFS run would bring is one of the biggest ever evacuations that turns out to be for nothing. I'm starting to agree at this point. Not only since Euro has been stubbornly east, and GFS trending towards it. but also how there isn't a strong flow to bring it onshore. We all know how hesitant Canes are to making landfall once nearing land....ESPECIALLY when there's a weak flow. Odds are there won't be a S.C. , N.C. landfall. The flow (west) will actually be stronger when nearing Florida...then it will be when nearing NC, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z GGEM at 84 looks like LF near CHS... 96 near ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 GFS moves to the Euro idea of out to sea from the NC coast. I'm thinking if the Euro holds serve with that same solution, the NHC will shift the track further off shore. It ain't over yet for the NJ/NYC area, but things are looking up (for me and people who don't want the storm to hit here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Out to sea it goes at 108 and 120... follows 12z GFS idea (12z GGEM that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I dub thee Blue Baller instead of Matthew if present track comes to pass as depicted. It won't but the name sticks. Big teaser, bouncing off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Wow definite trend east at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Back and forth we go. East to west and now back east with the track. Too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 So apparently word is spreading around SC that all state schools have been ordered closed, an evac of all coastal areas will initiate at noon tomorrow and the forecast is for a Cat 4. Obviously that last part is a huge red flag that it's BS, but I've gotten probably five texts in the last few minutes all with exactly the same info. These are people in local government and public safety. They're all saying the source is some conference call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Not surprised at all by this development. All along I have thought that a near miss was the most likely scenario, although this close of a brush would still have some decent impacts onshore and yes, it would not take a huge deviation for a US landfall. But it could trend more east also..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Out to sea it goes at 108 and 120... follows 12z GFS idea (12z GGEM that is) Follows the ECMWF idea, you mean... The track around Florida has had some wobbles, but the Euro has been miles apart from other guidance with the trough depth and orientation. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that a 70/30 compromise towards the Euro was in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hugo said: So apparently word is spreading around SC that all state schools have been ordered closed, an evac of all coastal areas will initiate at noon tomorrow and the forecast is for a Cat 4. Obviously that last part is a huge red flag that it's BS, but I've gotten probably five texts in the last few minutes all with exactly the same info. These are people in local government and public safety. They're all saying the source is some conference call. geez, guess they haven't seen the GFS.. more good footage. they act like it's typical walk-in-the-park weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: geez, guess they haven't seen the GFS.. more good footage. they act like it's typical walk-in-the-park weather Well the Cat 4 stuff is silly, but if the current GFS is what happens, there will be evacuations from Florida to North Carolina. Remember the massive evac in Florida for Floyd? It never came ashore there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Remember: The 12Z Spaghetti plot says discount it going up the coast. Also, this thing going Out to Sea after SC/NC would be a good thing, I like tracking these things as much as the rest of you, but Hurricanes aren't fun for the people they hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Impressive Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ukie appears to landfall in FL and again in GA, and never goes north of the NC/SC border before sputtering out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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