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PTC Matthew

PaEasternWX

By PaEasternWX,
in Tropical Headquarters

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
Posted

The NHC is now indicating that the disturbance off to the northeast of Matt could now become a TS. Wouldn't this mean a further east track, similar to what the Euro had before 0z?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure area located about 500 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.
Satellite wind data indicate that the low is producing winds to
gale force, and the system could become sufficiently well organized
to result in the formation of a tropical storm later today.  The
low is expected to move generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the next few days, and upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

The NHC is now indicating that the disturbance off to the northeast of Matt could now become a TS. Wouldn't this mean a further east track, similar to what the Euro had before 0z?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

 

 

That is what I keep asking. Fuji effect, Matthew pulled more east especially north of Hatteras??? 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

The system to the NE of Matthew has developed into a TS 

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

...NEW TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 60.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH...FLORIDA TO
THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE
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nycwinter

nycwinter

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Matt is still a Cat 4 apparently. 

 

And Nicole wont have an effect unless it bombs out and becomes a deep system, which is very unlikely. 

the nhc expect nicole to be trapped by blocked by the high to it's north and also to weaken starting late tomorrow so no factor at all..

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OVER
THE GULF OF GONAVE AND IS HEADING FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 74.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Deerfield Beach, Florida to
the Volusia/Brevard county line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Seven Mile Bridge in
the Florida Keys northward to south of Deerfield Beach, including
Lake Okeechobee
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HillsdaleMIWeather

HillsdaleMIWeather

Posted
Posted 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OVER
THE GULF OF GONAVE AND IS HEADING FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 74.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
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HillsdaleMIWeather

HillsdaleMIWeather

Posted
Posted 
The eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made
landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning,
but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional
imagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt
earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the
plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in
this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew
interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the
environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4
status for the next 2 days.  Some weakening is anticipated by the
end of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear.

Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is
moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt.  The hurricane
is being steered by the flow around the western edge of a
subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge
westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn
toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east
of Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward
allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will
extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a
strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast
United States from days 2 through 5.

 

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Austinwx

Austinwx

Posted
Posted

I'm a little surprised the NHC went with TS Watches instead of Hurricane Watches for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties...I guess the models verbatim support this, but that's a mighty close call to not even entertain the possibility of hurricane conditions, esp in Broward. On the other hand, I'm sure they don't want to unnecessarily freak out 4 million+ people either. 

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Hugo

Hugo

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Austinwx said:

I'm a little surprised the NHC went with TS Watches instead of Hurricane Watches for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties...I guess the models verbatim support this, but that's a mighty close call to not even entertain the possibility of hurricane conditions, esp in Broward. On the other hand, I'm sure they don't want to unnecessarily freak out 4 million+ people either. 

They're in close communication with state officials on what kind of time will be needed to initiate evacuations.  The alarm will be sounded when it needs to be. No need to worry about that. 

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WaPo

WaPo

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Austinwx said:

I'm a little surprised the NHC went with TS Watches instead of Hurricane Watches for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties...I guess the models verbatim support this, but that's a mighty close call to not even entertain the possibility of hurricane conditions, esp in Broward. On the other hand, I'm sure they don't want to unnecessarily freak out 4 million+ people either. 

There's more than enough time to change the TS watches into Hurricane watches. It might be best to get the idea of a tropical system in Miami into the public's mind right now, and alter the watch into a Hurricane watch should the models continue to float the idea of a close FL LF. 

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Hugo

Hugo

Posted
Posted
Just now, Brick Tamland said:

NHC has it hitting the SC/NC border. Doesn't have it as a major hurricane, though. Surprised by that. I thought it would just stay as strong once it gets in the open water.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

That forecast point is several miles inland at 105 MPH.  The previous forecast point is 125 MPH.  That gives the impression that it will be a bordering 2/3 at landfall and was a pretty smart way to issue the forecast. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NHC has it hitting the SC/NC border. Doesn't have it as a major hurricane, though. Surprised by that. I thought it would just stay as strong once it gets in the open water.

150356W5_NL_sm.gif

 

It hugs the SE coast for a real long time. It'll likely pull in dry air 

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