Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I wonder if there could be a tornado threat inland from Matthew once it gets to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of what's about to go down in the Bahamas. There's a very good chance this is going to make a direct hit on New Providence Island (Nassau) which is densely populated and very exposed, and might roll over Freeport as well. Would be by far the worst hurricane for the Bahamas in memory, with a highly unusual trajectory. This is a near worst-case scenario for that part of the Carribean; I guess a direct south-to-north landfall on Santo Domingo would be worse but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I wonder if there could be a tornado threat inland from Matthew once it gets to the coast. There could be, especially as the storm makes the turn up the SC/NC Coast on the northern semi-circle. However, the greatest tornado threat may never be realized if the storm doesn't make landfall. Another thing to not overlook, Eastern NC had a very wet September, so even TS force winds sustained could be enough to bring whole trees down due to weaker soils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Disrruption of the eye's impressive appearance was expected. The question is how well did the inner core handle things and how quickly will it rebound once it's back over water. It could look better by noon, or it could pull an Ike and take 3 days to recover. With 30C water and weak shear I doubt it takes more than 12-24 hours. Once the center is over water recon will get in there and survey the current state of the inner core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Center almost back over water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Scott, feel free to set up a thread for Josh if you think it's warranted. I know most follow him on twitter/facebook, so I'll just do some random updates in here if he's out of pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thesolmachine Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The LBAR finished it's hold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ugh...and they still have quite a while to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Incredibly similar track to Hazel thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Incredibly similar track to Hazel thus far. Yep, and if the progged track is correct, it will also be worse, because Florida And all of South Carolina will be hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Prep for Matthew in Cuba via Mike Seidel's twitter feed https://twitter.com/mikeseidel/status/783288495372513280/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 46 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of what's about to go down in the Bahamas. There's a very good chance this is going to make a direct hit on New Providence Island (Nassau) which is densely populated and very exposed, and might roll over Freeport as well. Would be by far the worst hurricane for the Bahamas in memory, with a highly unusual trajectory. This is a near worst-case scenario for that part of the Carribean; I guess a direct south-to-north landfall on Santo Domingo would be worse but that's about it. It's also going to have Storm Surge damn near 15 feet, meaning the little islands are going to be flooded completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Prep for Mathew in Cuba via Mike Seidel's twitter feed https://twitter.com/mikeseidel/status/783288495372513280/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw 1 "Mathew" actually has two T's, not one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 48 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: I'm surprised there isn't more discussion of what's about to go down in the Bahamas. There's a very good chance this is going to make a direct hit on New Providence Island (Nassau) which is densely populated and very exposed, and might roll over Freeport as well. Would be by far the worst hurricane for the Bahamas in memory, with a highly unusual trajectory. This is a near worst-case scenario for that part of the Carribean; I guess a direct south-to-north landfall on Santo Domingo would be worse but that's about it. Give it time. We need to first get passed Haiti and then Cuba and then the talk will shift towards the Bahamas. Right now the more populated areas of Freeport and Nassau are still 36-48 hours away from impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: "Mathew" actually has two T's, not one. Thanks for the catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I live 50 miles N of PBI and really appreciate all the updates -- especially about the trends in the latest models. Thanks for all the great information! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: eye was immediately wrecked by the mountains which means winds will expand out more once back over the bahamas. Can't blame a new ERC for this type of expansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 23 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Ugh...and they still have quite a while to go. They really thought that was from Haiti? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Hazel is still the top analog for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 13 minutes ago, PSLwx said: I live 50 miles N of PBI and really appreciate all the updates -- especially about the trends in the latest models. Thanks for all the great information! Are you in Port St Lucie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: I wonder if there could be a tornado threat inland from Matthew once it gets to the coast. That's the $50,000 question I am curious about landfalling tropical systems almost always have a significant tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: Are you in Port St Lucie? Yes... Prima Vista/Floresta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hazel is still the top analog for this storm Hazel definitely has an eerily similar path so far, but when you have only one matching storm over 150 years, I don't know that the analog is too useful. I don't think anyone is expecting Matthew will be racing at super speed and bring damaging winds to far-inland Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Middle and Upper Keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, PSLwx said: Yes... Prima Vista/Floresta Cool. I have family in the SW part of town. I'm just south of Jupiter inlet on the barrier island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Center as moved back over water, cloud tops are warmer than prior to landfall, but that is to be expected, overall, system still looks pretty healthy despite the direct mountain interaction. 1 mountain range down one to go. Afterwards the million dollar question is how long does it take to reorganize itself? Will it take 8 hours, or multiple days. Given the extremely favorable conditions over the southern Bahamas I'd lean toward a quicker reorganization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hugo said: Hazel definitely has an eerily similar path so far, but when you have only one matching storm over 150 years, I don't know that the analog is too useful. I don't think anyone is expecting Matthew will be racing at super speed and bring damaging winds to far-inland Canada. Track looks similiar but not the strength as it comes further north in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Wow. Crazy satellite image at landfall in Haiti. Looks like an evil face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 20 minutes ago, kayman said: That's the $50,000 question I am curious about landfalling tropical systems almost always have a significant tornado threat. Highest tornado threat with currently projected plots of Matthew even if no landfall would lie along the outer bands spiraling in on the northern and NE side of the hurricane...so it would be a threat. Of course, a landfall expotentially increases that risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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