DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 close to a florida landfall at 78. very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 hour 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 This.... That portion of the new forecast track is essentially the same as the previous advisory, bringing Matthew over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Beyond 48 hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Wind field really spreading out. This is flight level winds. I was wrong to guess they would reach 140kt on the way in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Storm is moving faster, means it might get to the coast before the ridge can push it OTS. Might be more inland here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ridge continues to hold in the NE at a strong rate. Pieces in Canada and the Rockies are weaker than the 12z for sure Matthew is just off the coast of FL and faster than the 12z (72 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Strongest so far is an unflagged 127kt SFMR reading. Edit - was reading the wrong column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Matthew rakes the east coast of FL 72-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just off the FL coast by 84 hours 588dm ridge extending into WV now with the trough in the Rockies not digging nearly as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Full degree north of 18z/90 for 0z/84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ridge really ballooning up now. I'd be surprised if it escaped in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 31/80.5 for 0z/96 vs 30/80 at 18z/102. GA-SC getting hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Landfall near CHS 105... inland in SE SC at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Scrapes along GA and SC by 99 hours Much quicker than the 18z and a good deal west still of the 12z. Trough in the plains has less energy concentrated at the base. Not sure if its going to start lifting NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Landfall at 105. Central SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Passing near/over ILM at 114 just inland NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Landfall in SC by 105-108 Looks like a huge rain maker as well as the flow from the trough starts to encompass Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 GFS makes landfall in South Carolina.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 H5 looks pretty prime for a major event along the entire coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Catastrophic run. Just no other word for it. Jet associated with the incoming trough tries to impinge some shear and dry air entrainment, but it's too little -- too late, by the time that happens it's already raked everything from S FL to SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Observation station in Haiti has gone down, but it had some very nasty conditions prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The North East would go from drought to severe flooding on this run in a matter of a day or two. Really gnarly run for a ton of people. I still think we have to wait until this clear Haiti and Cuba to get a good grasp on the possible impacts for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Catastrophic run. Just no other word for it. Jet associated with the incoming trough tries to impinge some shear and dry air entrainment, but it's too little -- too late, by the time that happens it's already raked everything from S FL to SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Observation station in Haiti has gone down, but it had some very nasty conditions prior. 82mph sustained, 106mph gusts. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Some of the most heavily-populated areas in Haiti are getting raked right now by those rain bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Some of the most heavily-populated areas in Haiti are getting raked right now by those rain bands. For reference for other folks, most of the 3k fatalities in Jeanne were in Gonaives, which got largely washed away by less rainfall than is forecast with Matthew (around 10-15"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, andyhb said: For reference for other folks, most of the 3k fatalities in Jeanne were in Gonaives, which got largely washed away by less rainfall than is forecast with Matthew (around 10-15"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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