CamSE-Wx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Has it staying a major hurricane up Florida coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Recon just measured 140+kt flight level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 southern tip of haiti is about to get rocked, northern eyewall looking vigorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 From the NHC: 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely tomorrow morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Anybody know what 10 to 15 feet of storm surge does to the Bahamas? STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I've just been following this in passing and perhaps it was already covered at an earlier time but since Hazel was just mentioned, would it be fair to say that a quicker motion by Matthew would increase the chances of a Hazel type track? The logic being that it would increase the odds of the incoming trough fully capturing the storm (assuming the trough is reasonably amplified). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Some impressive wave heights to come in the caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Anybody know what 10 to 15 feet of storm surge does to the Bahamas? STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet This may help: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/IslandsSurge.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I have noticed over the past couple hours that the storm appears to be taking on annular characteristics. The transition to annular is not complete (and may not complete prior to landfall in Haiti). The north, west, and south quadrants of the storm appear annular, while the eastern portions and the eye itself have not yet completed the transition. For reference, "An annular tropical cyclone is a subset of tropical cyclones that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick and uniform ring of intense convection, often having a relative lack of discrete rainbands." (Wikipedia) Compare the current IR: to an IR image taken 4 hours earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I've just been following this in passing and perhaps it was already covered at an earlier time but since Hazel was just mentioned, would it be fair to say that a quicker motion by Matthew would increase the chances of a Hazel type track? The logic being that it would increase the odds of the incoming trough fully capturing the storm (assuming the trough is reasonably amplified). The setup really isn't similar to Hazel at all. Hazel had a large amplified trough over the plains/ohio valley and Hazel phased with it and it became a huge cutoff system over the ohio valley/east cost. The trough on this one isn't really anywhere near as amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Anybody know what 10 to 15 feet of storm surge does to the Bahamas? STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Funny you asked that. Was just noodling around on one of the elevation sites and all of the major islands in the Bahamas have points over 20 feet in elevation, where I assume they have shelters for locals who decide to ride out the storm. However there are hundreds of small to tiny islands, where every point is under 10 feet in elevation, so presumably people on those islands will evacuate. If they want to survive. http://elevationmap.net/1499-us-1-rahway-nj-07065-usa?latlngs=(40.601767312528644,-74.26714897155762)#menu2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I think it looks about the same so far, just a little faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: What are you talking about? If you're going to say something like that at least have some substance behind it. Only out to 24 hours. Where are the mods when you need them... anyhow, fresh info from se eye wall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 about the same at hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Pretty much the same position as the 12z GFS through 36 hours. Ridge has a little more gusto to it near Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Recon bout to hit the NE eyewall next pass... let's see what he's doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 125kt at flight level and they aren't even that close to the center yet. Nuts. Probably going to find 140kt plus in there. edit: 140kt at flight level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 West of the 12z and slightly faster as well. Ridging is only marginally stronger this run, and the trough in the Plains is roughly the same in orientation and strength by 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 0z GFS a bit further north than 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 14 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: I have noticed over the past couple hours that the storm appears to be taking on annular characteristics. The transition to annular is not complete (and may not complete prior to landfall in Haiti). The north, west, and south quadrants of the storm appear annular, while the eastern portions and the eye itself have not yet completed the transition. For reference, "An annular tropical cyclone is a subset of tropical cyclones that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick and uniform ring of intense convection, often having a relative lack of discrete rainbands." (Wikipedia) Compare the current IR: to an IR image taken 4 hours earlier: It looks like it's trying to develop a rather small eye, though, not the giant ones associated with annular storms. I think it's just unusual to see such a large storm be so organized and it gives the illusion of being annular, like Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: West of the 12z and slightly faster as well. Ridging is only marginally stronger this run, and the trough in the Plains is roughly the same in orientation and strength by 54 hours Certain people in here should take notes about your analysis . This pass is gonna have some big #'s come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, JasonOH said: 125kt at flight level and they aren't even that close to the center yet. Nuts. Probably going to find 140kt plus in there. Using a 90 percent reduction, 140 knots at FL would be about 125 at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The NASA Global Hawk is supposed to start a long-duration mission tommorow night to help sample the upper air pattern around Matt. The two year mission actually ended last week with the aircraft ferried back to California. The CIMSS folks convinced NASA to extend the mission. It'll be coming from California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 If I had to estimate it's about a half-degree north of 18z atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Good deal west of the 12z by 60 hours and faster than the 18z as well. Ridging over the MA looks stronger as well with the 588dm line extended back into Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: Using a 90 percent reduction, 140 knots at FL would be about 125 at the surface... I forgot to say flight level winds. Editing it into my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Hurricane force wind field has dramatically increased today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Here we go... West of both the 12z and 18z by 66 hours with a 2 sigma signal coming out of the ridge in the NE Shortwaves in Canada look to be slower and slightly more disjointed (66 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The ridge to the north and east looks a lot stronger this run. Looks like Florida landfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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