CamSE-Wx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z GFS has it staying just off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z UKMET is West of 00z, 997mb over Eastern Cuba day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Don't let DT see the 12z Euro -- big trend toward the GFS camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 This morning's models are similar. The trend toward stronger subtropical ridging pushing Matthew farther west has halted. A northward track between Jamaica and Haiti is looking pretty good. One change this morning is the models have again decided to keep the influence of the pesky cutoff upper low over the eastern US hanging around. For example, the euro, instead of totally lifting the upper low up and away into the north Atlantic with a building ridge over New England, suddenly has the upper low still parked off the mid-Atlantic coast, ready to tug on Matthew. The other models are similar in at least showing a weak tail from the upper low still hanging back. Models have been struggling with this upper low, though, with major changes from one run/day to the next, so it could easily change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 28 minutes ago, beanskip said: Don't let DT see the 12z Euro -- big trend toward the GFS camp. Disagree. At 216, Matthew is still in the Bahamas on the euro. On the GFS it's near the Delmarva area... But as far as general track goes, sure... But it's only one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 16 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Disagree. At 216, Matthew is still in the Bahamas on the euro. On the GFS it's near the Delmarva area... But as far as general track goes, sure... But it's only one run. Huge move east by Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Huge move east by Euro. Its sooooooo slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, beanskip said: Huge move east by Euro. Yet still within the 0z EPS. Reminder that OP runs are dealing with the equivalent steering influences as Joaquin- a storm the GFS caved from Chesapeake landfall to OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 While I do not think that S FL is by any means out of the woods yet, the direct hit or near direct hit that the Euro was showing yesterday for S FL looks less likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12Z Euro ensembles are predominately west of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, jojo762 said: 12Z Euro ensembles are predominately west of the op run. And the mean also follows suite and into the southern GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 18z GFS much more west, has it brushing the outer banks again week from tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I don't buy the left half of the EPS members. IMO they show much interaction with the trough in the GoM, and the ECMWF often has a westerly bias with CV type storms as it is. I am liking the idea of Matty emerging off E Cuba into the Bahamas. After that just too many unknowns including that mentioned above with lagging mid latitude troughing, also uncertain strength of larger scale ridging to the north/east and remote possibility of trough in the West having some play if events unfold more slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The GFS is WAY faster than the EURO. If we got the GFS track with the EURO speed it would be perfect (if you want a phase scenario) because the trough would catch up the Matt. On the 18z GFS matt is so fast it out runs the trough and we dont get a phase until up near N Maine etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortsmouthWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Looking at the radar, it appears to be developing an inner-core pretty quickly. http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Pressure down to 1004 per recon. Winds up to 65 mph. Core looks to be organizing on radar with a strong banding feature on the eastern semicircle which may be the beginnings of an eyewall. Per NHC, the motion has also slowed down a bit more to W @ 15 mph.Martinique recently had a wind gust to 89 mph. The trade induced surface winds against the ridge are really screaming on the north side of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 Quote EuroEPS12z hour 246 enters the gulf......hour 312 hits the Florida Panhandle with a Sub 950mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I really wouldn't be shocked to see a Hurricane soon. Those 71 knot FL winds are very impressive as well as the 89 mph gust on Martinique SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 6.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 8.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 My thoughts: The large Euro spread looks bogus- the GFS has been pretty rock solid with a more north/east track- eastern NC or OTC still looks like the most likely scenario to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Satellite presentation has really ramped up in the past few hours. Eye-like feature appears to be developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I believe an eye is trying to develop, inner core looks a lot better given the previous imagery nine hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Radar imagery doesn't support and eye, but maybe a good microwave pass will show a mid level one later Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 where is the source for the microwave imagery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 47 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: where is the source for the microwave imagery? http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html Its not close to a eye, its got some work to do but the eastern half is impressive.....give it another 12-24 hrs to get its inner core organized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 The highest threat right now based on models would be the Carolina's through New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 before people start getting all emo, remember there are mountains over 5000 feet high in eastern CUBA...which could send Matt back to a TD in a heartbeat . That's the biggest thing to watch in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 As we've seen often this season, Matthew has a ball of deep convection this evening but the surface center is not under it. Recon shows the center continuing to shoot westward(actually a bit south of west) out ahead of all the convection. Any convection that tries to fire over the western half of the circulation quickly dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 While I think areas like Florida are becoming less likely (the last JMA run I saw had a Southern FL hit.. so lets throw it out), any East Coast area from NC onward is on the plate. My gut tells me a close miss, OTS solution for all. Still, a few larger scale issues to figure out. We aren't going to really know much for a few days at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 00Z run for the GFS is starting out further southwest than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Talk about uncertain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.