NaoPos Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS slowed down compared to 12z GFS, and therefore, gets kicked due east once it reaches NC latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 22 minutes ago, Derecho! said: So the problem is I think there is a romantic image of a wizened met looking at two conflicting models and using his decades of moxie and skill and intuition and gut to deem one of them "wrong" and the other one "right." While it is perhaps possible for this to occur, what has been found with tropical track forecasting (and something you will get a sense of reading NHC advisory after NHC advisory) is that instead mathematically and mechanically averaging the two models, with no met input, will almost always beat the met that is "picking" a model and "tossing" another. There are some parallels to the superiority of unmanaged stock index funds consistently beating "managed" investments by "experts" though of course important differences. On average yes, over many events, providing statistical validity - would like to see the stats for major systems with wide model variances, which likely don't exist. By that method, twice in the past few years, for Sandy and Joaquin, going with the "outlier" aka the Euro, was the right call. But how would anyone know to do that and should a pro do that now? No idea, just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, Jaguars said: Maybe more of a Cleo-Hazel mix? Hazel was pretty far off shore. You are in Jax - I lived in Ortega on the river when Cleo came by, then shortly afterwards, Dora. If I'm at all anywhere near right with thinking Cleo is an analogy, I'm praying we don't have one on his heels .... analogies should only go so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Although still showing the Florida/SC Landfall from the 12Z, it slowed down allowing it to get sent OTS. From the 18Z Spaghetti Plot, a coastal rider is still a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, airmarci said: That is one of the crazier model runs I've ever seen. Matthew hugs the coast/rides the Gulf Stream from Miami to OBX over the course of 72 hours! That solution would certainly be vying for an all time costliest hurricane in the US. The way it literally follows the geography of the coastline perfectly is almost stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: That solution would certainly be vying for an all time costliest hurricane in the US. The way it literally follows the geography of the coastline perfectly is almost stupid. Yeah, based on the High-Res GFSes Barometric Pressure, it would be a High End Cat 4 clobbering East Florida, then absolutely devastating the whole of the SC Shoreline, and parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcool Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 did 18z gf have Gulftream IV dropsondes inputted into the model ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Yeah, based on the High-Res GFSes Barometric Pressure, it would be a High End Cat 4 clobbering East Florida, then absolutely devastating the whole of the SC Shoreline, and parts of NC. That is very much a carbon copy of Tropical Storm Janet's path just a few weeks ago. ugh, 18z GFS run is absolutely a devastating coastline skim-along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, andyhb said: That solution would certainly be vying for an all time costliest hurricane in the US. The way it literally follows the geography of the coastline perfectly is almost stupid. I wonder how disrupted it would get though with half of the storm over land like that for days.....typically storms that track like that do not hold up and maintain that kind of strength with parts of the circulation over land, it might be ok if he is a smaller storm but if he is big you would think it would be a issue maintaining.....I honestly cant think of storm off the top of my head that did a track quite like the GFS just ran that close to the coast for so long.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I wonder how disrupted it would get though with half of the storm over land like that for days.....typically storms that track like that do not hold up and maintain that kind of strength with parts of the circulation over land, it might be ok if he is a smaller storm but if he is big you would think it would be a issue maintaining.....I honestly cant think of storm off the top of my head that did a track quite like the GFS just ran. Not perfect, but Cleo ain't far off ... at least until we're up the coast with Matthew and by then, who knows what models may show ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 So basically most of the deterministic global models including GFS, GEM, UKMET, NAVGEM, and FIM with the notable exception of the ECMWF and hurricane models (HWRF, GFDL) are now CONUS landfalls, but the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS ensemble means are misses to the east, albeit barely. Tough forecast considering what's at stake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, bdgwx said: So basically most of the deterministic global models including GFS, GEM, UKMET, NAVGEM, and FIM with the notable exception of the ECMWF and hurricane models (HWRF, GFDL) are CONUS landfalls, but the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS ensemble means are misses to the east, albeit barely. Tough forecast considering what's at stake. Its gonna come down to forward speed, and I doubt the models really lock in on that till later this week, I can totally see this thing teasing up the coast and looking to hit SC/NC and then slowing down and getting booted east before landfall.....everyone will have to assume he is coming in though cause if he does keep his speed up he will get into SC/NC. Its going to frustrate the hell out of everyone down here....already water selling out here, people here are hurricane savvy by Thur there wont be a bottle of water or a battery anywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its gonna come down to forward speed, and I doubt the models really lock in on that till later this week, I can totally see this thing teasing up the coast and looking to hit SC/NC and then slowing down and getting booted east before landfall.....everyone will have to assume he is coming in though cause if he does keep his speed up he will get into SC/NC. Its going to frustrate the hell out of everyone down here....already water selling out here, people here are hurricane savvy by Thur there wont be a bottle of water or a battery anywhere... I think some of the guidance wants to spread heavy rains and the wind field NW with the pressure gradient with the high to the N and NE and the incoming trough out west as well, which poises a far greater danger and that the fact guidance has Matthew basically crawling along, with likely significant impacts for a ridiculously long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Matthew appears to be gaining latitude pretty quickly now per the latest visible (slightly east of due N heading). Won't be long before it approaches Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 the capture solution of a few days ago looked much more interesting for the mid-atlantic / north-east. GFS = being much more progressive and boring like Euro now. Even though it's still further west than Euro....it's trending towards the Euro in terms of progresssion. 18z run is extremely progressive... trough goes bye-bye quickly. which means no more chance of lake-effect snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: the capture solution of a few days ago looked much more interesting for the mid-atlantic / north-east. GFS = being much more progressive and boring like Euro now. Even though it's still further west than Euro....it's trending towards the Euro in terms of progresssion. 18z run is extremely progressive... trough goes bye-bye quickly. which means no more chance of lake-effect snows. Modeling the most expensive natural disaster in American history is boring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hugo said: Modeling the most expensive natural disaster in American history is boring? The most expensive natural disaster in history? Let's not get ahead of ourselves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 42 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Hazel was pretty far off shore. You are in Jax - I lived in Ortega on the river when Cleo came by, then shortly afterwards, Dora. If I'm at all anywhere near right with thinking Cleo is an analogy, I'm praying we don't have one on his heels .... analogies should only go so far! I'm in Avondale. About 2 miles north of Ortega. Would not want this thing anywhere near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, Hugo said: Modeling the most expensive natural disaster in American history is boring? the biggest damage will be in low population SE states most likely... which won't translate into the 'most expensive'. If it got 'captured' , then it would have a run at 'most expensive'....since flooding would be more devastating further north , and more populated areas. That's why when 30 inches of rain fell in Louisiana this summer...it made no news barely. It's all about the big money cities that are affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said: The most expensive natural disaster in history? Let's not get ahead of ourselves... Most disasters affect one city and surrounding areas. This would slam several major metro areas. Maybe not quite the $60-something billion of Katrina, but it would easily pass Sandy's $25 billion. Now, that path is exceedingly unlikely, but to call it boring is goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 To hype as it being the most expensive natural disaster in history is even more goofy if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: the biggest damage will be in low population SE states most likely... which won't translate into the 'most expensive'. If it got 'captured' , then it would have a run at 'most expensive'....since flooding would be more devastating further north , and more populated areas. That's why when 30 inches of rain fell in Louisiana this summer...it made no news barely. And it caused $10 billion in damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 16 minutes ago, Jaguars said: I'm in Avondale. About 2 miles north of Ortega. Would not want this thing anywhere near us. Was living on Ortega Forest Drive - not far from you. We rowed a john boat from just south of Stockton School where the canal is right up Roosevelt Blvd., all the way to the Roosevelt Bridge; the whole road was under water. In that low area, no you don't want it near you (but think of San Marco). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Right. To think that that GFS track wouldn't do at least several times that is silly, not to mention all of the permanent coastal erosion and barrier island damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Apparently some deaths already in Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 52 minutes ago, RU848789 said: On average yes, over many events, providing statistical validity - would like to see the stats for major systems with wide model variances, which likely don't exist. By that method, twice in the past few years, for Sandy and Joaquin, going with the "outlier" aka the Euro, was the right call. But how would anyone know to do that and should a pro do that now? No idea, just pointing it out. The problem is not knowing when an outlier is right, ahead of time. Since center locations are so obvious, it is easy to track model performance (incluiding performance against NHC). An interesting dynamic is increasingly NHC more or less verbatim follows a consensus/average model track like TVCA or GFEX for its own forecast track. Years ago you might have seen NHC trying to diagnose or pick apart a model in order to "toss" it in discussions, in favor of another. I think they realized that was fool's gold. NHC has a lengthy and extensive model verification report every year: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: To hype as it being the most expensive natural disaster in history is even more goofy if you ask me. Hugo is right, if that track were to verify it would be one of if not costliest natural disaster in US history. Look at how long it goes up the coast and how strong it is. This isn't some garbage system riding the coast but at the very least a strong cat2 to as high as a cat4 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hugo said: Most disasters affect one city and surrounding areas. This would slam several major metro areas. Maybe not quite the $60-something billion of Katrina, but it would easily pass Sandy's $25 billion. Now, that path is exceedingly unlikely, but to call it boring is goofy. Yeah those low population states like, #4 Fl, #8 GA and #10 NC, not to mention what I bet is the most developed coastline in the US, there are multi million dollar homes side by side from Miami to Emerald Isle NC just about...that not counting all the big cities like Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle, Wilmington etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Apparently some deaths already in Haiti. Many Haitians still reside in tents or other privatize structures on mountainsides. This will be a devastating storm for a nation that hasn't recovered from several other disasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18Z HWRF and GFDL both west of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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