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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

NWS in Upton and WPC has basically tossed the Euro.  Keep in mind they're forecasting for the NYC metro area.

 



 

So the problem is I think there is a romantic image of a wizened met looking at two conflicting models and using his decades of moxie and skill and intuition and gut  to deem one of them "wrong" and the other one "right."

 While it is perhaps possible for this to occur, what has been found with tropical track forecasting (and something you will get a sense of reading NHC advisory after NHC advisory) is that instead mathematically and mechanically averaging the two models, with no met input, will almost always beat the met that is "picking" a model and "tossing" another. 

There are some parallels to the superiority of unmanaged stock index funds consistently beating "managed" investments by "experts" though of course important differences. 

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2 minutes ago, kpantz said:

Where do you get the output that shows you 932?  I see 982 on tidbits and thought you were playing a photoshop joke...

Full-resolution frames. 

WB/Tropical Tidbits and this site all have them.

You're using the down-scaled MSLP field

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2016100318&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=500 

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2 minutes ago, kpantz said:

Where do you get the output that shows you 932?  I see 982 on tidbits and thought you were playing a photoshop joke...

Pretty sure you're looking at Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and not the max surface pressure. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

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