airmarci Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: Yeah, all points to a clean ERC, since shear is relatively low. Bigger eye, shrinking and intensifying prior to LF in extreme W le Tiburon looks like a good bet. Animated MIMIC for Matthew suggests this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 27 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Hard not to ride the Euro here in spite of its on-and-off forecasting of a stall.... Anyone know how well it's done forecasting the WAR which has dominated our summertime pattern over the past few months? Has it overestimated its strength? Underestimated? Done well? The correct answer is to ride the exact average of the EURO and GFS. Best performing model last year. For whatever reason on AmWx people treat model vs. model as a steel cage grudge match (perhaps the obsessive winter focus) and a lot haven't caught on that consensus/averages of multiple different models crush all else, including individual member models, and also human forecasters most of the time, for tropical. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2015.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Question is, how long does it take, and does it weaken the hurricane at all. This looks much more like a good attempt than the failure I posted this morning. Varies, but usually more than a few hours. As the inner eyewall collapses, the central pressure rises and since the pressure gradient is less pronounced, the winds slacken some. But if environmental conditions are still good, then the eye will shrink and the hurricane will re-intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Tri-modal clustering in the 12z EPS solutions, including a significant one (perhaps the largest) making landfall on or coming very close to the east coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 25 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Hard not to ride the Euro here in spite of its on-and-off forecasting of a stall.... Anyone know how well it's done forecasting the WAR which has dominated our summertime pattern over the past few months? Has it overestimated its strength? Underestimated? Done well? NWS in Upton and WPC has basically tossed the Euro. Keep in mind they're forecasting for the NYC metro area. There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub- tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Before we all claim victory over the forecast track, please note the NE movement of Matt currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, SN_Lover said: Before we all claim victory over the forecast track, please note the NE movement of Matt currently. Probably a wobble in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Quote BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 ...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 74.7W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: NHC: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Gotta stop this NE movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Before we all claim victory over the forecast track, please note the NE movement of Matt currently. If you look at the models... they forecasted a NNE turn before curving back to the NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The media storm is about to begin. New forecast has it just off MB in 5 days, though as a weakening Cat 2. Misinformation and panic is going to be all across social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Definitely on a Northeastward trajectory now. It's more than just a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Before we all claim victory over the forecast track, please note the NE movement of Matt currently. Euro moves it NE through next 36 hours or so to almost 73W. GFS did too, just a little less east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Definitely on a Northeastward trajectory now. It's more than just a wobble. Pretty much called for. I'd look for the new blow up of convection in the NW eyewall to give it a little NNW inertial shove later tonight. Matthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06. The short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the hurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Castaway Cay has already been evacuated. From StuartFlint5: @TheDCLBlog Hi, My daughter is currently working on the Dream and she's told me that they evacuated Castaway Cay when they left yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, kpantz said: Also noticing that the core has been asymmetrical all day. The deepest convection isn't fully wrapped around on the northern side. Haven't seen a shear map recently. Anyone know the cause? It's been taking in some dry air for the last couple of days, you can tell by the outflow boundry popping out in the NW feeder bans indicative of collapsing storms due to dry air.. They have begun to less frequent this afternoon. Some of it may have slightly disrupted the core today as the eye was reported open SW twice during the last Recon. But it's core is well developed enough its had more of a cosmetic effect rather than inducing a lot of weakening. Also the last recon pass in the storm showed the wind field increaseing in size substantially at flight level which could of been the beginning of a partial ERC that may be continuing. This thing has never done a classic ERC that I've seen. <EDIT: Until maybe now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Key thing is to continue to watch the trends, impossible to tell at the time range/margin of error involved at present especially given the trajectory to reasonably predict any U.S. impacts. The ridge strength is obviously key. Potential Nicole could also throw a wrench in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just doing the basic 12z global model comparison (GFS v. EC) today without getting cute with the finer details the two big differences I see are that A: The GFS is faster with Matthew, specifically from the Bahamas onward and B: The approaching midwest shortwave is way more pronounced on the GFS than the Euro. The GFS actually has a pretty decent negative tilt to this feature, which would certainly support it's robust rainfall all the way up into the Mid-Atl and NE with the frontal interaction as well as the overall track of pulling right up the coast vs the Euro's push-off from the Carolina coasts. The associated northern Atlantic ridging is also more pronounced on the GFS. In short.. the GFS is overall notably more amplified on the mid-latitude pattern than the Euro. So those are some pretty big differences to resolve there and that's not even addressing the short term of what Matthew does with regards to it's impacts with Cuba/Haiti/Jamaica. If it ends up getting caught up in a land mass (say it ends up more into eastern Cuba), that would have significant impacts on the strength and possibly speed of Matthew.. and would throw another wrench into it's timing with the aforementioned mid-latitude features. The storm does seem to be finally making more of a definitive move in a NNE trajectory in the latest few satellite frames, so on that path that would make for the core having the more limited impact with land or even shooting the gap between Cuba and Haiti. Long way to go with figuring the end game out with respect to any US related impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Every model has it heading NE for a day or two before heading back NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: Every model has it heading NE for a day or two before heading back NW Path of least resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 looks like recon just took off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18z GFS is starting up right now. Same path as 12z so far through 36. Edit: It's a tad west at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Rjay said: NHC: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches They've been getting a fair amount throughout the day already. http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/GMO_loop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Path of least resistance. Yeah, I am just remarking as people saying "it better stop NE movement soon" need to look at the models a little closer. It won't be changing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, hazwoper said: Yeah, I am just remarking as people saying "it better stop NE movement soon" need to look at the models a little closer. It won't be changing soon. It's going to head Northeast until it passes Cuba. Majority of models support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS seems slightly further SW of 12z/66 at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: GFS seems slightly further SW of 12z/66 at 60. 50/100 miles for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS dangerously close to South Florida Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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