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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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27 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Hard not to ride the Euro here in spite of its on-and-off forecasting of a stall....

Anyone know how well it's done forecasting the WAR which has dominated our summertime pattern over the past few months?  Has it overestimated its strength?  Underestimated?  Done well?

The correct answer is to ride the exact average of the EURO and GFS. Best performing model last year.

For whatever reason on AmWx people treat model vs. model as a steel cage grudge match (perhaps the obsessive winter focus) and a lot haven't caught on that consensus/averages of multiple different models crush all else, including individual member models,  and also human forecasters most of the time, for tropical.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2015.pdf

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8 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Question is, how long does it take, and does it weaken the hurricane at all. This looks much more like a good attempt than the failure I posted this morning.

Varies, but usually more than a few hours. As the inner eyewall collapses, the central pressure rises and since the pressure gradient is less pronounced, the winds slacken some. But if environmental conditions are still good, then the eye will shrink and the hurricane will re-intensify.

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25 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Hard not to ride the Euro here in spite of its on-and-off forecasting of a stall....

Anyone know how well it's done forecasting the WAR which has dominated our summertime pattern over the past few months?  Has it overestimated its strength?  Underestimated?  Done well?

NWS in Upton and WPC has basically tossed the Euro.  Keep in mind they're forecasting for the NYC metro area.

 

There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew
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Quote

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 74.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

 

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KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast.  At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east
coast later this week and weekend.
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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Definitely on a Northeastward trajectory now. It's more than just a wobble.

Pretty much called for. I'd look for the new blow up of convection in the NW eyewall to give it a little NNW inertial shove later tonight. 

Matthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06.
The short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the
hurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.

 

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1 hour ago, kpantz said:

Also noticing that the core has been asymmetrical all day.  The deepest convection isn't fully wrapped around on the northern side.  Haven't seen a shear map recently.  Anyone know the cause?

It's been taking in some dry air for the last couple of days, you can tell by the outflow boundry popping out in the NW feeder bans indicative of collapsing storms due to dry air..  They have begun to less frequent this afternoon.  Some of it may have slightly disrupted  the core today as the eye was reported open SW twice during the last Recon.  But it's core is well developed enough its had more of a cosmetic effect rather than inducing a lot of weakening.  Also the last recon pass in the storm showed the wind field increaseing in size substantially at flight level which could of been the beginning of a partial ERC that may be continuing.  This thing has never done a classic ERC that I've seen.  <EDIT:  Until maybe now 

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Key thing is to continue to watch the trends, impossible to tell at the time range/margin of error involved at present especially given the trajectory to reasonably predict any U.S. impacts. The ridge strength is obviously key. Potential Nicole could also throw a wrench in the works.

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Just doing the basic 12z global model comparison (GFS v. EC) today without getting cute with the finer details the two big differences I see are that A: The GFS is faster with Matthew, specifically from the Bahamas onward and B: The approaching midwest shortwave is way more pronounced on the GFS than the Euro. The GFS actually has a pretty decent negative tilt to this feature, which would certainly support it's robust rainfall all the way up into the Mid-Atl and NE with the frontal interaction as well as the overall track of pulling right up the coast vs the Euro's push-off from the Carolina coasts. The associated northern Atlantic ridging is also more pronounced on the GFS. In short.. the GFS is overall notably more amplified on the mid-latitude pattern than the Euro. 

So those are some pretty big differences to resolve there and that's not even addressing the short term of what Matthew does with regards to it's impacts with Cuba/Haiti/Jamaica. If it ends up getting caught up in a land mass (say it ends up more into eastern Cuba), that would have significant impacts on the strength and possibly speed of Matthew.. and would throw another wrench into it's timing with the aforementioned mid-latitude features. The storm does seem to be finally making more of a definitive move in a NNE trajectory in the latest few satellite frames, so on that path that would make for the core having the more limited impact with land or even shooting the gap between Cuba and Haiti. Long way to go with figuring the end game out with respect to any US related impacts. 

 

 

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