NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I know what you mean....a major hurricane on 1 model run, missing landfall by dozens of miles... 5 or 6 days out is a real yawner.... Only logical explanation is that he's trolling. Not sure what he's expecting. Perhaps a category four hurricane making landfall near Ocean City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Now depending on when Matthew becomes post-tropical. Will NHC continue to issue advisories just like with Hermine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Now depending on when Matthew becomes post-tropical. Will NHC continue to issue advisories just like with Hermine? As long as it is a threat to coastal entities, they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, marauder20 said: what are the chances of getting a flight into ft Lauderdale Thursday morning as currently scheduled? The tricky part with FLL and MIA is not having north-south runways. So even a north wind 30-40 mph with a storm passing well east can be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just look at the huge differences in the GFS at 144 hours (Sunday morning at 7 am). The GFS has the storm 75 miles east of Cape May, while the Euro is 75 miles south of Cape Hatteras, on its way to the ENE way out to sea. This is why forecasting 5+ days out is so difficult, let alone 2-3 days out. Stay tuned, as I'm sure more changes are to come. And for anyone discounting the Euro, remember Sandy, Joaquin, etc. Euro was also the only model that got Hermine's Sat/Sun run much further to the east before retrograding correct, which I know a few folks on this board recall bitterly, as they dismissed it at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 You can clearly see the westward trend with the models here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 42 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said: Hello. I live in Myrtle Beach...where are you seeing these models? Would love to be able to follow along with what everyone else is looking at. I try to not comment and just read, but wanted to ask that. Also, is the media not sharing these things with the public to prevent chaos before it's certain I guess? Thank you all for your work on here! Most local mets have this stuff on Facebook and many have blogs on their respective station's website. For instance, Ed Piotrowski in Myrtle Beach has a whole rundown on his Facebook page right now and will answer questions. For anyone not in MB, check out your local mets on social media. Those are the best sources for in-my-backyard kind of information. Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: You can clearly see the westward trend with the models here. WOW, that rakes the entire coast from FL to Maine..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 More than 55,000 people are still living in tents in Haiti, presumably still because of the devastating earthquake 6 years ago. That's a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Someone I know flew into Haiti just yesterday, against my opinion of course. This will likely be a extreme humanitarian crisis on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Someone I know flew into Haiti just yesterday, against my opinion of course. This will likely be a extreme humanitarian crisis on the island. Almost definitely. Government officials are expecting mass loss of life, according to TWC. The degree of poverty in Haiti is incomprehensible, and not talked about often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 50 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: The LBAR does everything it can to keep bringing this in to the gulf run after run, no matter how unlikely. Stop using the LBAR. It's a single layer model that was developed back in the early 90s. It should carry little if any weight. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml - Reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Almost definitely. Government officials are expecting mass loss of life, according to TWC. The degree of poverty in Haiti is incomprehensible, and not talked about often. It's actually the poorest country in the entire Western Hemisphere. Not sure how much of a surprise that is to people, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 47 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: You can clearly see the westward trend with the models here. Beside the fact that they all moved westward, they also tightened up considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Welp... Guess it's the 25+ year-old LBAR or bust for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 34 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Someone I know flew into Haiti just yesterday, against my opinion of course. This will likely be a extreme humanitarian crisis on the island. Really hope they got to somewhere safe or decided to go elsewhere at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Since we're wobble-casting, it appears the eastward jog has slowed/stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z EPS mean tracks Mathew close to the FL coast but then turns hard right well South of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: Really hope they got to somewhere safe or decided to go elsewhere at the last minute. They are staying in a hotel in Port au Prince. I think they should be fine, but if it tracks some 50 miles further east, their could be some troubles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Also noticing that the core has been asymmetrical all day. The deepest convection isn't fully wrapped around on the northern side. Haven't seen a shear map recently. Anyone know the cause? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Apparently North Carolina has declared a state of an emergency. Kind of early don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: Apparently North Carolina has declared a state of an emergency. Kind of early don't you think? That just opens up additional resources to be used if need be...probably not a bad call. I believe Florida has done so or is in the process of doing so as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Just look at the huge differences in the GFS at 144 hours (Sunday morning at 7 am). The GFS has the storm 75 miles east of Cape May, while the Euro is 75 miles south of Cape Hatteras, on its way to the ENE way out to sea. This is why forecasting 5+ days out is so difficult, let alone 2-3 days out. Stay tuned, as I'm sure more changes are to come. And for anyone discounting the Euro, remember Sandy, Joaquin, etc. Euro was also the only model that got Hermine's Sat/Sun run much further to the east before retrograding correct, which I know a few folks on this board recall bitterly, as they dismissed it at the time. Hard not to ride the Euro here in spite of its on-and-off forecasting of a stall.... Anyone know how well it's done forecasting the WAR which has dominated our summertime pattern over the past few months? Has it overestimated its strength? Underestimated? Done well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Rick Scott @FLGovScott 17m17 minutes ago I have declared a state of emergency in every Florida county due to the severity and magnitude of Hurricane Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, lj0109 said: That just opens up additional resources to be used if need be...probably not a bad call. I believe Florida has done so or is in the process of doing so as well. Also: "Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler asked for the declaration, McCrory said, so farmers could speed up their harvesting in the coming days. The declaration, which covers 66 counties in the central and eastern parts of the state, will lift restrictions on the loads agricultural trucks can carry and the hours they can operate. "Already, many crops are destroyed due to previous storms and previous floods that we've had during the past 10 days," the governor said. "We don't want to have other crops ruined for the year." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 MW imagery and radar appear to show an ERC is underway. http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/matthew16/Matthew_3Oct16_Jamaica.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, wxmx said: MW imagery and radar appear to show an ERC is underway. http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/matthew16/Matthew_3Oct16_Jamaica.gif Bad news for Haiti, ERC will likely be completed when Mathew makes its closest approach early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Bad news for Haiti, ERC will likely be completed when Mathew makes its closest approach early tomorrow morning. Yeah, all points to a clean ERC, since shear is relatively low. Bigger eye, shrinking and intensifying prior to LF in extreme W le Tiburon looks like a good bet. Also, as the inner eye dances inside the outer eyewall, we will probably see trochoidal wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 You can clearly see the ERC here. Microwave Imagery Gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Question is, how long does it take, and does it weaken the hurricane at all. This looks much more like a good attempt than the failure I posted this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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