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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

That's because most of the time down there you're still dealing with almost an entirely tropical system. Once Mathew reaches further North and extra tropical transition begins, the wind field and rain shield will expand dramatically. Every model that shows Mathew interacting with the trough expands both fields hundreds of miles from the center. Just look at the last two GFS runs verbatim, where the heaviest rains are well removed from the core.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

Yes that is a clear indication of interaction with the cold front over Eastern Pa and NJ..

Floydd caused 10-16" of rain back in 1999 along with 40mph winds as he passed by this set up looks pretty similar but I am sure we are far from the final solution at this time.

 

 

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Just now, Superstorm93 said:

Noticeably west by 72 hours. Ridge coming in stronger, but 98L is more developed this run. 

 

We'll see how it plays out with the trough a little slower in the Central US 

This run is definitely West of 00z by a good margin on Friday morning.

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Myrtle Beach, SC into the NW eyewall Saturday afternoon. Sustained hurricane force winds onshore.

Hello. I live in Myrtle Beach...where are you seeing these models? Would love to be able to follow along with what everyone else is looking at. 

 

I try to not comment and just read, but wanted to ask that. Also, is the media not sharing these things with the public to prevent chaos before it's certain  I guess? Thank you all for your work on here! 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

EURO maintains the OTS track.  Hard to get excited about anything other than some beach erosion.

The Euro is going to be embarrassed with this system. That's how awful it is performing. It has shifted towards the other guidance at days 1-5 in nearly every single run.

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Even if the Euro didn't make landfall with Matthew, if it still went further west and closer to the coast, I think that's important. It would still be showing the westward trend.

The Euro passes close enough to the FL/GA/SC/NC coasts to deliver a widespread 6-12" of rain and high end TS force winds. 

If you don't think this run was a major shift towards the Western camp of solutions then I have no idea what you're looking at.

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1 minute ago, Jtm12180 said:

Hello. I live in Myrtle Beach...where are you seeing these models? Would love to be able to follow along with what everyone else is looking at. 

 

I try to not comment and just read, but wanted to ask that. Also, is the media not sharing these things with the public to prevent chaos before it's certain  I guess? Thank you all for your work on here! 

Models are not forecasts.  There's a relatively low chance of any point in particular getting hit when forecasting from this range, so forecasting a major impact at this point for any spot is likely to be calling wolf.  Best advice is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  It is better to waste some time preparing now than wait until when you are sure there is going to be an impact.

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Even if the Euro didn't make landfall with Matthew, if it still went further west and closer to the coast, I think that's important. It would still be showing the westward trend.

The big take away is that now that all the players are being sampled we are seeing the models that were pretty far apart start to narrow in on a consensus.....granted its 5 days out and much can change, but the fact that most models are now getting close to similar tracks means if you take the model consensus chances are increasing for NC take a hit of some sort at least at this point.

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1 minute ago, marauder20 said:

what are the chances of getting a flight into ft Lauderdale Thursday morning as currently scheduled?

All depends on how the conditions are. Airlines have limits to what they can operate in. Either way the airlines will have be waiving the fares to reschedule at no charge

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