Floydbuster Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 https://youtu.be/_ZvvZrril0Y Notice how Matthew is riding straight up 75W. Even if it misses a direct landfall with Haiti to the west, they'll be on the right side and potentially even get raked by the eastern eyewall. It's currently drizzling in Port au Prince. An ominous sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Really interested to see what the 12z UKMET does since the 00z run looks a lot like the 12z GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Really interested to see what the 12z UKMET does since the 00z run looks a lot like the 12z GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: 976? That's the lowest I've seen the UKMET go, must be a very strong hurricane. Since even shooting the gap between Cuba and Haiti it had Matthew in the mid 980s a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Joe4alb said: NORCROSS Matthew – Slow Movement Increases Coastal Threat Intense Hurricane Matthew is finally moving - slowly and painfully toward the north. It will increasingly impact Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today with torrential life-threatening rain over those mountainous countries. Tomorrow the core of the hurricane is going to come close to Guantanamo Naval Base in eastern Cuba. Then the Bahamas are in line for a very hard hit beginning late tomorrow in the southern part of the country spreading north over the next two days. The potential for catastrophic damage and loss of life in these countries is high. Matthew defied the models last night and refused to get moving on schedule. This slow movement has two effects: 1) The steering flow that will control how close the hurricane gets to Florida and the Southeast coast has a chance to evolve, and 2) the waves and high water will pound the coastlines of the islands and the Southeast for days, meaning coastal damage is likely even without a direct hit. The evolving steering flow has increased the threat of significant impacts to the U.S. coast. A high-pressure system over the Atlantic is forecast to get stronger as Matthew enters the Bahamas. The stronger it gets, the closer the hurricane is pushed toward Florida. We’ve seen that trend in the morning models – increasing the possibility of Matthew’s strong winds coming over or near the coast. The National Hurricane Center cone just brushes the coast this morning from the Palm Beaches north to the Carolinas. The message here is that core of the hurricane is still most likely to stay offshore, but any track of a powerful hurricane over the left side of the cone will have significant impact on land. Remember, on average the center of the hurricane stays inside the cone only 2/3 of the time. The rest of the time the cone is wrong. And even more importantly, the bad weather from any strong hurricane reaches outside the cone. We will see how the forecasts evolve later today, but everybody on the east coast of Florida and up to the Carolinas needs to get their mind around the possibility of some level of impact from Matthew, and possibly significant impact. On the current schedule, winds slowly pick up in Miami on Wednesday with the possibility of winds gusting over 40 mph, coastal flooding, and at least squalls of heavy rain peaking Thursday and improving Friday. The threat moves up the coast increasing in the Carolinas over the weekend. The aggravation factor is very high with Matthew because it is moving so slowly. There have certainly been sluggish strong hurricanes before, but none in the modern era where we’re hanging on every computer model and spaghetti plot, which makes it worse. We have to accept the fact that forecasts are slowly going to fall into place with a slow-moving hurricane. We cannot know exactly what’s going to happen at the coast, but given what we do know, it is crazy not to prepare for a stretch of bad weather with the power out, and be ready to take action if the track becomes more threatening. The potential impact on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are completely unknown, beyond the expectation of very high surf and coastal erosion. The only good thing about a slow-moving storm is that it is not going to pounce. There will be time to get ready. Think of the extra time as a gift, and don’t look a gift storm in the mouth. This update was prepared Monday morning, October 3. Please check in with The Weather Channel, your local media, the National Hurricane Center, and your local National Weather Service office. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 UKMET has one heck of a track. Hit Florida and winds up off of the MA coast. These 6-hour ROABs should help us get an idea of the overall evolution of this thing. Though, I doubt we'll have any idea until this is out of the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Link? facebook https://www.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcross/?fref=ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z GEFS mean is shifted quite far west, almost making landfall on the E coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Recon almost to the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Some of those 12z GEFS members look like the high-prob ECMWF Ens clusters. Pretty impressive shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Some of those 12z GEFS members look like the high-prob ECMWF Ens clusters. Pretty impressive shift west. Still a ton of OTS solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Still a ton of OTS solutions. The colors look backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: How close did the storm pass to this buoy? Sustained winds are pretty low for a cat 4 if it went right over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: How close did the storm pass to this buoy? Sustained winds are pretty low for a cat 4 if it went right over. Considering pressure was down to 945mb, probably went over it. Recon just recorded SFMR winds of 124kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Navgem weny way inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Considering pressure was down to 945mb, probably went over it. Recon just recorded SFMR winds of 124kts. I would have expected higher sustained winds @ this buoy if the center went over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: How close did the storm pass to this buoy? Sustained winds are pretty low for a cat 4 if it went right over. could be off scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z GFDL strength of Matthew is silly... gets to 170 kts at 114 hrs... makes landfall in S NC at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFDL strength is silly... gets to 160 kts at 84 hrs highest i see is 129.7 @ 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, friedmators said: highest i see is 129.7 @ 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, yoda said: ahhh not surface winds ok then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFDL strength of Matthew is silly... gets to 160 kts at 108 hrs That run would pretty much wipe out ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Not that 160kt wind is anything to "downplay" at any level....but that is at 850....not surface.... ....though at 920mb slp....850 ain't too high up, lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: Not that 160kt wind is anything to "downplay" at any level....but that is at 850....not surface.... ....though at 920mb slp....850 ain't too high up, lol.... True, my mistake for not checking that out... 102 has 170 kts 850 winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Certainly looks like a NNE movement last few frames. visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Worst case scenario would be those GFS members showing it literally rubbing the MIA FLL PBI coast for hours on end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, yoda said: That's at 850mb which is always going to be much stronger than the surface in every instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 HWRF and GFDL are only several hundred miles apart at hr 126. HWRF just south of LI, GFDL 6hrs into making landfall in NC..... no differences...no differences lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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