downeastnc Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: I believe he's referring to the surface pressure Yeah I know here is the plot I get right at landfall from Tropical Tidbits showing 976MB right over me it was 969MB at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah I know here is the plot I get right at landfall from Tropical Tidbits showing 976MB right over me it was 969MB at landfall Here is the surface pressure near landfall with 10m winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 End of the 0Z ECMWF shows a Category 5 Hurricane headed for Florida, 930 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: End of the 0Z ECMWF shows a Category 5 Hurricane headed for Florida, 930 mb. That's not a Cat 5 by surface pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, andyhb said: That's not a Cat 5 by surface pressure. Whoops, read the chart wrong. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 00Z ECMWF run would be absolutely devastating. Pretty much has a major hurricane sitting on top of the Bahamas from Thursday through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Timing difference between the models on the 00Z runs is huge, Euro has it in the southern Bahamas at 216 and the GFS has it landfalling in NC at 216, and the CMC has it SE of Cape Cod at 216, that's a huge spread between the models timing wise.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 97L has been producing winds up to tropical storm force for a good two days now. Once it does form a LLC it'll go straight to Matthew with 40-45 MPH surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Wow, thats not something you see every day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Even if the wave doesn't have a closed circulation shouldn't TS warning be able to be issued since it has sustained winds it looks like now up to 45 knots or 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 14 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Even if the wave doesn't have a closed circulation shouldn't TS warning be able to be issued since it has sustained winds it looks like now up to 45 knots or 50 mph. Nope since it's not yet a tropical cyclone. I believe they will be issuing products (track maps and watches/warning) pre-development beginning in 2017 or 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Looks like it's starting to try to get its stuff in gear while approaching the Windward Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Plenty of 50-55 knot FL winds with some even up in the 62-64 knot range. Several SFMR wind values up to 55 MPH as well. Of-course all this is over the northern section of what will probably become the LLC later today. Recon hasn't found much in the way of westerly winds yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Not every day you see a freakin Invest packing that much of a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The models are in fairly good agreement that a weakness develops between high pressure systems allowing 97L to move parallel to the east coast. Just how far east or west is the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Upgrade on the way @ 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Matthew is born ... per 11 a.m. NHC advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 0z Ukmet is well east of it's previous forecast, east of CMC and GFS...crosses Hispaniola near it's mid section. The Euro and GFDL are the west outliers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 I think I should probably change the name of the topic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 First NHC cone for Matthew. Jamaica directly in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Track is more Euro like, but timing is a consensus between the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Wow already 60 mph winds It wouldn't take much to become a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Lol could someone tell me how to edit the topic Go to your original first post and edit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wow already 60 mph winds It wouldn't take much to become a hurricane It's going to be moving into a less favorable upper air environment until it reaches the Central Caribbean so that should at least halt any major strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wow already 60 mph winds It wouldn't take much to become a hurricane It has no inner core and a pressure of 1008, still early in the development cycle. It has plenty of work to do to become a hurricane. Models/environmental conditions suggest organization will continue to be gradual over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's going to be moving into a less favorable upper air environment until it reaches the Central Caribbean so that should at least halt any major strengthening. I don't know if I agree. If it stays low enough, that's a very well-ventilated environment and that can be more beneficial for strengthening than moderate shear is harmful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 It's going to be moving into a less favorable upper air environment until it reaches the Central Caribbean so that should at least halt any major strengthening. The current TUTT you see over the Caribbean is forecast to lift NW as it weakens. Matthew likely will encounter some shear as the center moves underneath the eastern entrance region of the TUTT, which should help to initially keep significant or rapid intensification in check. However, as the TUTT lifts and weakens, upper ridging is shown to develop in the models with healthy poleward outflow to the north. Probably why most of the models are showing significant intensification in the central Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 41 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: First NHC cone for Matthew. Jamaica directly in the path. That is one hell of a right turn. and it is not too often you see an tropical system go from an invest directly to a strong tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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