jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Which makes little sense given how high the OHC is even into the Northern Bahamas. Both the GFS and Euro show a strengthening system approaching the Southeast coast in 4-5 days. as do the HWRF/GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Impressive temperature gradient has developed. The 'canes of the late 2000s had these when strengthening/organizing. We'll see what happens. I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS is coming in about six hours slower. The Eastern eyewall comes very close to the SW tip of Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Impressive temperature gradient has developed. The 'canes of the late 2000s had these when strengthening/organizing. We'll see what happens. I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft) Isn't warming in the eye a signal of increasing organization and a sinking motion present in the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The GFS does track the core of Mathew over the far Eastern tip of Cuba, but it does so in a very quick manner and probably wouldn't be enough to cause significant disruption of the circulation even though that area is very mountainous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z GFS significantly slower and W Atl ridge is stronger, will come very close to FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, wxmx said: 12z GFS significantly slower and W Atl ridge is stronger, will come very close to FL. Yup, at least six hours slower, and manages to avoid most land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Yea this looks west...so far kinda similar to UKMET (thru HR 54) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yea this looks west...so far kinda similar to UKMET (thru HR 54) The most noticeable difference to me so far is the stronger WAR resulting in a slower Northward progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Someones gonna get a hypothetical nasty cane this run. I can't imagine a Hazel or Hugo with the population and asset increases since then. Would be in the billions of dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The most noticeable difference to me so far is the stronger WAR resulting in a slower Northward progression. I thought slower meant a better chance of further OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The GFS track is much closer to the FL coast this run, but it looks like the core will remain just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, NortheastPAWx said: I thought slower meant a better chance of further OTS. Not necessarily. The further West that Mathew makes it the greater chance of impacting the SE coast. Further North it's more dependent on correctly timing the trough and how far Southeast it can dig. It's certainly possible that Mathew makes landfall in the Carolina's before heading OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 By Thursday night, Mathew is about 100 miles closer to the coast. Disney's private island (Castaway Cay) gets absolutely crushed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I can see the 12z verify. Synoptically makes sense, but still got many days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS has the center ~79W at 102. Pretty significant move west from the NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It's right on a collision course with the Carolinas. Still hasn't begun an east movement by 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Around Myrtle Beach/SC/NC border. Something like that. Either way, West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Day 5 of the GFS looks like we have a hit on the SC/NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, NortheastPAWx said: It's right on a collision course with the Carolinas. Still hasn't begun an east movement by 114. landfall around the NC/SC boarder at 120hrs this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: landfall around the NC/SC boarder at 120hrs this run Hazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z GFS has Hurricane Matthew at a Category 3 storm as it makes landfall around Myrtle Beach next Saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It wouldn't be moving as fast as Hazel though, would it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 CMC now takes it into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, Tater Tot said: It wouldn't be moving as fast as Hazel though, would it? Its nothing like Hazel at all......other than the landfall spot, which it shares with literally dozens of other hurricanes...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: CMC now takes it into the Carolinas. As does the UK MET I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Yep. UKMET had a number of paths that take it (literally) close to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its nothing like Hazel at all......other than the landfall spot, which it shares with literally dozens of other hurricanes...... Yeah, I figured Hazel was just a knee-jerk weenie comparison... I can't really think of any past tracks that would be quite like this. The closest I could think was David, which really isn't that similar either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: 12z GFS has Hurricane Matthew at a Category 3 storm as it makes landfall around Myrtle Beach next Saturday afternoon Verbatim the central pressure is in the 930's so likely stronger...if you believe the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its nothing like Hazel at all......other than the landfall spot, which it shares with literally dozens of other hurricanes...... After coming from South of Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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