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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Which makes little sense given how high the OHC is even into the Northern Bahamas. Both the GFS and Euro show a strengthening system approaching the Southeast coast in 4-5 days.

as do the HWRF/GFDL.

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Impressive temperature gradient has developed. The 'canes of the late 2000s had these when strengthening/organizing. We'll see what happens. 

 

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)

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2 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Impressive temperature gradient has developed. The 'canes of the late 2000s had these when strengthening/organizing. We'll see what happens. 

 

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)

Isn't warming in the eye a signal of increasing organization and a sinking motion present in the eye? 

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Just now, NortheastPAWx said:

I thought slower meant a better chance of further OTS.

Not necessarily. The further West that Mathew makes it the greater chance of impacting the SE coast. Further North it's more dependent on correctly timing the trough and how far Southeast it can dig. It's certainly possible that Mathew makes landfall in the Carolina's before heading OTS.

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Its nothing like Hazel at all......other than the landfall spot, which it shares with literally dozens of other hurricanes......

Yeah, I figured Hazel was just a knee-jerk weenie comparison... I can't really think of any past tracks that would be quite like this. The closest I could think was David, which really isn't that similar either.

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12 minutes ago, cdhay17 said:

12z GFS has Hurricane Matthew at a Category 3 storm as it makes landfall around Myrtle Beach next Saturday afternoon

Verbatim the central pressure is in the 930's so likely stronger...if you believe the GFS.

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