NaoPos Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 First from in microwave To this: Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 From satellite plus Guantanamo Bay radar we can see a portion of the blob has broken off and it already giving southern Haiti heavy rainfall. Some of those areas could see 36+ hours of heavy rainfall. Only comparable track to Matthew for Haiti is Hazel which is estimated to have killed anywhere from 400-1000 people. Cities on the south coast, such as Les Cayes are particularly at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 A large number of the ECMWF ensemble members hit Florida now - maybe 13-15 of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 ADT estimates back up to 6.5-6.6 this morning with very cold cloud tops surrounding a emerging eye on IR. Recon flight inbound and we should get an idea if Matthew is strengthening this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 HWRF got interesting..barely off Hatteras, then NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 ~120kts on latest recon pass. It's back to mid cat-4 strength. Also no secondary speed maximum evident. EDIT: Might be flagged due to very heavy rain occurring just before, but apparently, not during the reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Some backside snow on the GFS after she passes for NNE. Neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Dropsonde with 941 MB at 7 knots. Pressure down to 940-941 MB with a 15 knot increase in FL winds compared to overnight flight. Eye is now closed at 16 miles - so this appears to be the new eye and the conclusion of the ERC. Bad timing since we may now see strengthening through the day and right before landfall. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 12:23ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 16Observation Number: 05A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 11:56:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°26'N 74°55'W (15.4333N 74.9167W)B. Center Fix Location: 218 statute miles (351 km) to the SE (145°) from Kingston, Jamaica.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,584m (8,478ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 122kts (~ 140.4mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 124kts (From the SE at ~ 142.7mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg) - ExtrapolatedI. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 124kts (~ 142.7mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) from the flight level center at 11:52:30ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mbMaximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SW (227°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Noticed newer modeling had leveled off the Cat5 possibilities (restrength) but, UKMET as of 00z had it making another run. With many 00z EPS members shifting very far West even into Florida, can't take yesterday's UKMET off the table. Add to that these new Recons showing possible strengthening again. What a hard storm to forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 This thread and the one in the Southeast forum are like reading about two completely different storms. Here in Charleston I'm not worried or indifferent, just keeping aware of whatever happens at this point. It's still too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Ser Pounce said: This thread and the one in the Southeast forum are like reading about two completely different storms. Here in Charleston I'm not worried or indifferent, just keeping aware of whatever happens at this point. It's still too early to tell. Part of the reason why we created this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Shawn said: Noticed newer modeling had leveled off the Cat5 possibilities (restrength) but, UKMET as of 00z had it making another run. With many 00z EPS members shifting very far West even into Florida, can't take yesterday's UKMET off the table. Add to that these new Recons showing possible strengthening again. What a hard storm to forecast! The next big ? mark is when it starts moving west again. That's the deal maker for a Florida landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It's a bit scary that Matthew is moving into a region of very high oceanic heat content, and some of the lowest shear we have seen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Question. When you guys mention "flagged" where would that information be located? I see a high rain rate during the bigger surface wind measurement from last recon pass, but not sure how to check the flag status. Edit! Nevermind, read this and was able to figure it out - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/NHC_recon_guide.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Shawn said: Question. When you guys mention "flagged" where would that information be located? I see a high rain rate during the bigger surface wind measurement from last recon pass, but not sure how to check the flag status. Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but that is from what is called a Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SMRF) that is used for direct measurement of surface winds. It bounces radio waves off the ocean and uses the turbulence of the seas. If the reading is taken in heavy rains, the rain can trick the sensor into thinking the winds are much stronger than what is actually ongoing, thus being "flagged". More info: http://www.afrc.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/5059/Article/158497/smurfs-up-hurricane-hunters-ready-for-storm-season.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 I am really interested to see what the aircraft finds when it makes the second pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Really wish we had some of that rapid scan hi-res satellite for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I see the forecasted track is further west this morning. Looks like a threat to NC now. Hope it weakens before it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 From a recent pass, I came up with this. So the end that says "01" - 0 means normal, then the 1 means T/TD in question? So the 105/122 winds were not flagged; is that the correct way of reading this? 115330 1529N 07447W 7000 02665 9509 +139 //// 150086 105 122 015 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Question. How much longer until we get a better understanding of what extent this storm will impact the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Question. How much longer until we get a better understanding of what extent this storm will impact the EC. Not until 00z Wednesday probably. Too many moving pieces at this point, but there's definitely a west trend evident on the guidance at least until NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 06z GFS scrapes OBX, then it's a fish again. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z GFS scrapes OBX, then it's a fish again. Meh. It hooks left into New England. A lot of rain for the northeast. Ensembles don't look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Some are west of the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 ^^^^What in the heck is the LBAR seeing. It is sticking to its guns taking it into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but that is from what is called a Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SMRF) that is used for direct measurement of surface winds. It bounces radio waves off the ocean and uses the turbulence of the seas. If the reading is taken in heavy rains, the rain can trick the sensor into thinking the winds are much stronger than what is actually ongoing, thus being "flagged". More info: http://www.afrc.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/5059/Article/158497/smurfs-up-hurricane-hunters-ready-for-storm-season.aspx Microwave radiometers are passive sensors; the SFMR measures radiation at microwave frequencies emitted by the column of the atmosphere and sea surface below the instrument. With multiple channels and some assumptions about the atmospheric profile and the sea surface, you can get an estimate of the surface wind speed. Rain will contaminate these estimates since it also emits and scatters radiation at microwave frequencies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Microwave radiometers are passive sensors; the SFMR measures radiation at microwave frequencies emitted by the column of the atmosphere and sea surface below the instrument. With multiple channels and some assumptions about the atmospheric profile and the sea surface, you can get an estimate of the surface wind speed. Rain will contaminate these estimates since it also emits and scatters radiation at microwave frequencies.. Thanks for the clarification. It's amazing how fast remote sensing for hurricanes has some in the past 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, No snow for you said: ^^^^What in the heck is the LBAR seeing. It is sticking to its guns taking it into the GOM. LBAR is the Limited area BARotropic model which is a single-layer, regional, dynamical model. It is not a multi-layer model like the GFS, ECMWF, etc. The difference is that the winds are averaged over the depth of the atmosphere. Given all of the of moving parts with this forecast, it is not of much use here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, airmarci said: LBAR is the Limited area BARotropic model which is a single-layer, regional, dynamical model. It is not a multi-layer model like the GFS, ECMWF, etc. The difference is that the winds are averaged over the depth of the atmosphere. Given all of the of moving parts with this forecast, it is not of much use here. Gotcha. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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