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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

BIG differences this run of GFS irt the trof in the central US....much weaker and slower to come east. Definitely not as deep which is one factor allowing the storm to come west this run. Not acting like a kicker.

but likely means OTS further north? .. weaker trof, not going to pull it back towards the coast

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

but likely means OTS further north? .. weaker trof, not going to pull it back towards the coast

 

No. deeper trough/slower. More time for storm

to head north. Also, neg tilt trough allows storm to stay closer to coast. Strictly verbatim this run . 

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Buoy 42058 in the Caribbean Sea will be hit by the hurricane soon. It has 62kt gusting to 74 kt, wave height 33ft! 28.72inches (972.6mb)

 

Most say to expect waves of 20 to 30 feet with a Cat 5 ... but Ivan had waves of a 100 feet, mentioned here -

http://www.livescience.com/364-hurricane-waves-soared-100-feet.html

still 33 feet = impressive.

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35 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

BOUY 42T58 is in the eye?  

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42T58

 

I think what happened is that 42058 which is 6 nm west of 42T58 has been in the eye past two hours (it only reports at 10 min to each hour) while 42T58 was blown over on its side around 0430-05 z and has been giving spurious wind readings since then.

It should be saying SE 80-120 right now if it's in the eyewall. Satellite image shows the eye right on 15N 75W, the reliable buoy is just to the southeast of that, the blown over buoy is 6 nm east-north-east of the other one. We'll see if 42T58 comes back with more credible reports, or if 42058 survives the blast of the southern eyewall. If you click on 42058 you'll see that winds dropped to 4 knots at 0640z so the center must have gone right over top (almost). 

 

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Adding to the previous comments about the two buoys, 42058 appears to be surviving and sending reliable data, it shows the classic pattern expected when an eye goes over a location from south to north. 

The only explanations for the data we are seeing from 42T58 would be either (a) it fell over on its side around 0430z or 

(b) it went adrift and is spinning around in the eye of the hurricane.

The pressure record for 42T58 shows that it has to be (a) since the pressures are generally consistent with the fixed location while the winds are not. I've seen this happen off the Irish coast with weather buoys in severe storms with large waves, they fall sideways and ride the waves (in situ) giving much lower wind speeds and erratic directions. 

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