Derecho! Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Like I've said before, strong hurricanes don't follow what the models say. Not really true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Matthew looking really impressive on satellite right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Not really true. East coast is true. Strong storms are always slower than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Matt with a definitive movement due N last frame or 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Seems like north for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Definitely just completed a subtle trichodial wobble.. 2nd or 3rd one its done that I've seen... pretty cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Matthew has pretty much stalled right on the 75 line. It's barely moved over the past couple of hours and the outside convective mass has blown up. Looks to be massive again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: Matthew has pretty much stalled right on the 75 line. It's barely moved over the past couple of hours and the outside convective mass has blown up. Looks to be massive again. Yeah, will be nice to see if recon says it's fine cat 5 Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: Matthew has pretty much stalled right on the 75 line. It's barely moved over the past couple of hours and the outside convective mass has blown up. Looks to be massive again. What is causing that large convection that seems to be separate from the main circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Recon has not found cat 4 winds yet on this mission. Downgrade incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It may have weakened some, but its still beautiful as ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Big story isn't necessarily the exact track or the wobbles, but the very slow speed -- slower than forecast by almost all guidance to this point. Also, that convection downshear of the 'cane continues to persist. I have a feeling the persistent latent heat release and poleward transport of that modified air is affecting the steering to an extent, although how much is hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Recon has not found cat 4 winds yet on this mission. Downgrade incoming? Fluctuations were expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 00z Model Tracks. Not much change from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: 00z Model Tracks. Not much change from earlier. If that UKMET track were to verify, sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 What is causing that large convection that seems to be separate from the main circulation.As has been discussed previously, the persistent feeder band is colliding with strong easterly trades in the Windward Passage. You have strong convergence below high CAPE and divergence aloft. You also have dry air mixing in with strong mid-level SW flow of Matthew's circulation into feeder coming from the South American continent. All those ingredients together are combining for some extraordinary thunderstorm complexes that have persisted since the hurricane made an approach north of Venezuela and Colombia. As to its effects on the hurricane itself, it probably hasn't hurt it, as that is probably moistening and mixing out any dry air that would be prone from downsloping off the Sierra Nevadas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Matt literally looks like it hit a brick wall at 75 West the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Quote BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 ...MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 75.0W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 Although an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Matthew this evening has yet to report flight-level or surface winds anywhere close to the 130-kt winds measured in the previous flight, recent aircraft data have indicated that the surface pressure and 700-mb height have both decreased since the previous flight. The eye has cleared out in infrared satellite imagery and cloud tops have cooled around the 8-12 nmi diameter eye. Given the lower central pressure of 943 mb, which corresponds to about 120 kt on the Dvorak pressure-wind relationship, the small eye, and recent NHC objective T-numbers of T6.3/123 kt to T6.5/127 kt, the initial intensity will remain at 125 kt for this advisory. Matthew has continued to meander and wobble over the past several hours, but the best estimate of the forward motion based on recent recon fixes is 360/04 kt. Although some erratic motion could still occur due to Matthew interacting with a large convective complex and mid-/upper-level vortex located about 150 nmi east of Matthew, the cyclone is expected to move in a general northward direction for the next 48 hours or so. After clearing the northeastern coast of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn toward the north-northwest within southeasterly flow between the western periphery of a strong ridge located over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak mid- to upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z UKMET and 18Z GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models now show a weaker trough over the Gulf of Mexico on days 3-5 as a larger storm system currently located over the northwestern U.S. is forecast to not be as strong or as far south as previously expected. This has resulted in more downstream ridging in those models over the southeastern United States, and the model tracks of Matthew have responded by shifting westward. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the west or left of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more westward initial position. However, the forecast track remains to the east of the UKMET, GFS, and GFS-ensemble mean models, and lies near the TVCX consensus model. Matthew is forecast to remain in a low vertical wind shear environment for the next 36-48 hours, with the shear reaching near zero values by 24 hours. This condition, along with the very favorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery, should allow for the cyclone to at least maintain its current intensity, barring the eye making any direct interactions with Jamaica or Haiti. By 48 hours, however, land interaction with eastern Cuba should induce more significant weakening. The official intensity forecast remains near or above the latest model consensus. Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.7N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 15.7N 75.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 74.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 24.0N 75.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 27.1N 76.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 30.1N 76.7W 90 KT 105 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 What I see is a major catastrophe for Haiti form major flooding and mud slides. Let's hope the world is ready to help this country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 NHC now thinking a more west track is likely. Will be interesting to see the 0Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 17 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: NHC now thinking a more west track is likely. Will be interesting to see the 0Z suite. That's interesting. Got a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: That's interesting. Got a link to that? From the 11 PM Discussion 12Z UKMET and 18Z GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models now show a weaker trough over the Gulf of Mexico on days 3-5 as a larger storm system currently located over the northwestern U.S. is forecast to not be as strong or as far south as previously expected. This has resulted in more downstream ridging in those models over the southeastern United States, and the model tracks of Matthew have responded by shifting westward. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the west or left of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more westward initial position. However, the forecast track remains to the east of the UKMET, GFS, and GFS-ensemble mean models, and lies near the TVCX consensus model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 0Z GFS coming in a touch west, and stronger at 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 0z NAM track looks closest to 12z UKMET if I were to compare it to any other model at this point. I know its the NAM at its limit but extrapolated would likely be landfall somewhere in FL. Came East from 18z anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS coming dangerously close to the US coast at hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 can't believe Haiti doesn't even have a radar. would be sweet seeing that convective complex just south moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Trough out west is a whole new look. - lot sharper than 18z, therefore slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 0z gfs clobbers the Outer Banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Should also be noted that the GFS continues to show Matthew restrengthening into a significant sub-940mb major hurricane once it gets north of the Bahamas... Not that intensity forecasts have been super accurate thus far, just should be known that the environment once it reaches that point will be very favorable for strengthening. U.S. east coast will be playing with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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