CamSE-Wx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 As of 22:45 UTC, Matthew is definitely moving southwest again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 He's officially past 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 17 minutes ago, Wow said: Matthew holding on as hard as he can with the westward trajectory. It would be just our luck if it ended up in the GOM, although I can't really see that happening unless that trough trends significantly weaker and more north. As a weather enthusiast, I'd rather see him go into the Gulf than end up a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Wiggum was right. This is 2 hours ago in Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 32 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: Matthew appears to be moving west or even southwest in the past hour. Very interesting. It's called a wobble. Please stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 24 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: Matthew appears to be moving west or even southwest in the past hour. Very interesting. It's only like 5 or 10 miles west of the forecast track. Patricia drifted like 30 miles from of the forecast track over the course of 8 hours last year. It took like 2 satelitte frames to snap back and make everyone who commented look like a bunch of crazies idiot.!!! Needless to say I will never comment on a wobble again. Just a word of advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Wiggum was right. This is 2 hours ago in Jamaica goodness. only going to get worse as it accelerates north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcool Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 move west .. not nnw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 waterspout already spotted as well. (crazy looking clouds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Slower winds at flight level this pass. A bit of a secondary maximum is shown on the way in. Now we wait and see if it also shows up on the way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Like Amped said, you're wasting your time with these wobbles. If the recon fixes show a definite west bias from the track, then we have something to be concerned about. Otherwise, just wobbles in the grand scheme of things as it heads NW or NNW Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, JasonOH said: Slower winds at flight level this pass. A bit of a secondary maximum is shown on the way in. Now we wait and see if it also shows up on the way out. Latest satellite frame shows a very circular outer eye starting to form. Lets see if it holds its shape for a few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane into Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, in the central Caribbean Sea, recently reported a wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.91 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Latest 18z model tracks are out to sea. Except the Ukkie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 ^^^^the lbar takes it to the gulf but that path just looks wrong for many reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Guess I should remind everyone that recon has only sampled the northeast/northern eye wall. The southern and southwest side is the strongest attm on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, No snow for you said: ^^^^the lbar takes it to the gulf but that path just looks wrong for many reasons. I didn't even notice that one, ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, No snow for you said: ^^^^the lbar takes it to the gulf but that path just looks wrong for many reasons. The LBAR track would probably kill the storm before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 14 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Latest 18z model tracks are out to sea. Except the Ukkie! And the Ukie is pretty much the furthest east for the next couple day LOL go figure just goes to show further east or west now means very little in the overall evolution. Upper level steering is all that matters down the line. And without upper level system keeping it from heading OTS, it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Eye and eye wall appear to be ramping back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I'm a little concerned with the strong high pressure system. I can see it steering it close or at NC before the cold front moves it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceicebyebye Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: would be nice to have a Professional Talk thread on Matt. to cut down on little kids chiming in / wishcasting. I would favour this as well. The discussion would improve immensely if you would reduce your posting so those with knowledge can guide the dialogue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 To me, 18z gefs looked better then 12z, ensembles wise, looked better, around hour 156 north and west a little? I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: I'm a little concerned with the strong high pressure system. I can see it steering it close or at NC before the cold front moves it out to sea. If if even does move it OTS. We still don't know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 thanks for posting those videos Bacon a lot more pertinent that hearing about wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 As of 8pm EDT, bouy 42T58 only has winds of 47mph, and gusts to 62 mph and a pressure of 991mb, despite being pretty close to the center. Appears to be just outside of the eyewall though. That should change by the next observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: To me, 18z gefs looked better then 12z, ensembles wise, looked better, around hour 156 north and west a little? I could be wrong though. 18z gefs members don't look bad. They look better than the 12z members http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/f156.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Greg Fishel posted this earlier as something to look out for: Quote Strong hurricanes have been known to build ridges to their northeast due to the transport northward of air warmed by condensation. This would also result in a more westward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Greg Fishel posted this earlier as something to look out for: Like I've said before, strong hurricanes don't follow what the models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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