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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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17 minutes ago, Wow said:

Matthew holding on as hard as he can with the westward trajectory.  

It would be just our luck if it ended up in the GOM, although I can't really see that happening unless that trough trends significantly weaker and more north.  

As a weather enthusiast, I'd rather see him go into the Gulf than end up a fish storm. 

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24 minutes ago, cdhay17 said:

Matthew appears to be moving west or even southwest in the past hour. Very interesting.

rb_lalo-animated.gif

It's only like 5 or 10 miles west of the forecast track. Patricia drifted like 30 miles from of the forecast track over the course of 8 hours last year. It took like 2 satelitte frames to snap back and make everyone who commented look like a bunch of crazies idiot.!!! Needless to say I will never comment on a wobble again. Just a word of advice.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Slower winds at flight level this pass. A bit of a secondary maximum is shown on the way in.  Now we wait and see if it also shows up on the way out.

IMG_5344.PNG

Latest satellite frame shows a very circular outer eye starting to form. Lets see if it holds its shape for a few frames.

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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Matthew
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 14.5 North, longitude 75.0 West.  Matthew is moving toward
the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest
is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica
and southwestern Haiti on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).  NOAA data buoy 42058, in the central Caribbean Sea,
recently reported a wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.91 inches).
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14 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Latest 18z model tracks are out to sea. Except the Ukkie!

14L_tracks_18z.png

And the Ukie is pretty much the furthest east for the next couple day LOL

go figure

just goes to show further east or west now means very little in the overall evolution.  Upper level steering is all that matters down the line.  And without upper level system keeping it from heading OTS, it will.  

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3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

would be nice to have a Professional Talk thread on Matt.

to cut down on little kids chiming in / wishcasting. 

 

I would favour this as well.  The discussion would improve immensely if you would reduce your posting so those with knowledge can guide the dialogue

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As of 8pm EDT, bouy 42T58 only has winds of 47mph, and gusts to 62 mph and a pressure of 991mb, despite being pretty close to the center.

Appears to be just outside of the eyewall though. That should change by the next observation.

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