rockchalk83 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:11 PM, jojo762 said: ** 1/7 AM/PM central time. Its 2/8 on east coast. Expand Haha that's right. The world clock in my head is a tad off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Smoother phasing on this GFS run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like the CDO has expanded some the last few hours. Isn't that usually a product of and during ERC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:16 PM, jojo762 said: Correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like the CDO has expanded some the last few hours. Isn't that usually a product of and during ERC? Expand Its certainly possible. The eye has become cloud-filled and the recent microwave passes from this afternoon showed some bands trying to wrap into the eye which is usually the incipient stage of an EWRC. I know it tried to do the same thing yesterday, but this may be the real deal now. The only thing about an EWRC is that since this is under such a favorable environment, it should have little to no problems regaining strength and the end result would be a large hurricane with more surge potential for Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 GFS still eventually tracks out to sea after a close call with the coast like the 12Z. Still could be a dangerous situation for the coast, especially if it ends ups more west (but thats pretty obvious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 OTS at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Trough just comes in too late and too weak to make much of a difference, with these last 2 GFS runs... Knowing how this has been working though, the next run will show something entirely different. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:21 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GFS still eventually tracks out to sea after a close call with the coast like the 12Z. Still could be a dangerous situation for the coast, especially if it ends ups more west (but thats pretty obvious) Expand The nam (for shts and giggles) has it going towards the gulf at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The storm is more west than any of the models have it running at right now. Past the 75 line before the 15 line. Don't think any model had that on the 18z runs. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:25 PM, cdhay17 said: The storm is more west than any of the models have it running at right now. Past the 75 line before the 15 line. Don't think any model had that on the 18z runs. Correct me if I'm wrong. Expand Exactly, which is why you guys are looking silly saying "stick a fork in it". He will definitely affect the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:25 PM, cdhay17 said: The storm is more west than any of the models have it running at right now. Past the 75 line before the 15 line. Don't think any model had that on the 18z runs. Correct me if I'm wrong. Expand A few spaghetti models had it... Of course they were some of the more worthless models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:24 PM, Bacon Strips said: The nam (for shts and giggles) has it going towards the gulf at 84. Expand Its the NAM but for "shts and giggles" nothing is off the table with this guy - ban me but I still look at Cleo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:24 PM, Bacon Strips said: The nam (for shts and giggles) has it going towards the gulf at 84. Expand Wasn't the NAM pretty spot on with guiding Hermine in regards to where it made landfall in Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 NAM wants to take it into the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:29 PM, cdhay17 said: Wasn't the NAM pretty spot on with guiding Hermine in regards to where it made landfall in Florida? Expand It was also one of the few , that was accurate with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:29 PM, cdhay17 said: Wasn't the NAM pretty spot on with guiding Hermine in regards to where it made landfall in Florida? Expand Yeah, but people got threatened to be banned if they posted the NAM on its thread in this section during Hermine, so no one really looked at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:29 PM, cdhay17 said: Wasn't the NAM pretty spot on with guiding Hermine in regards to where it made landfall in Florida? Expand It was okay... But the NAM is almost always terrible with tropical cyclones... For reference it has Matthew as a mild TS as it hits Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew has stalled, has barely moved in the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:31 PM, jojo762 said: It was okay... But the NAM is almost always terrible with tropical cyclones... For reference it has Matthew as a mild TS as it hits Cuba. Expand I know with the strength of Hermine it was terribly wrong (had it way way too strong), but I think it had it tracking pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:31 PM, jojo762 said: It was okay... But the NAM is almost always terrible with tropical cyclones... For reference it has Matthew as a mild TS as it hits Cuba. Expand It changes it's mind a lot , but it also catches onto things first before the other models do...on many occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:34 PM, Bacon Strips said: It changes it's mind a lot , but it also catches onto things first before the other models do...on many occasions. Expand A broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Fickle Matt is clearing it's eye again at 22:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Appears to have taken a slight wobble to the west in the past hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew appears to be moving west or even southwest in the past hour. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I will say one thing, Matthews one hell of a photogenic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 10:27 PM, jojo762 said: A few spaghetti models had it... Of course they were some of the more worthless models though. Expand Six of 50 ECMWF 12Z ensemble members have Matthew into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew holding on as hard as he can with the westward trajectory. It would be just our luck if it ended up in the GOM, although I can't really see that happening unless that trough trends significantly weaker and more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 On 10/2/2016 at 11:01 PM, Wow said: Matthew holding on as hard as he can with the westward trajectory. It would be just our luck if it ended up in the GOM, although I can't really see that happening unless that trough trends significantly weaker and more north. Expand Some euro ensembles actually bring the storm into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Of course the risk of too much westward drift would be Matt possibly interacting with the highest mountains in SE Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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