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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like the CDO has expanded some the last few hours. Isn't that usually a product of and during ERC?

 

Its certainly possible. The eye has become cloud-filled and the recent microwave passes from this afternoon showed some bands trying to wrap into the eye which is usually the incipient stage of an EWRC. I know it tried to do the same thing yesterday, but this may be the real deal now. The only thing about an EWRC is that since this is under such a favorable environment, it should have little to no problems regaining strength and the end result would be a large hurricane with more surge potential for Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. 

ScreenHunter_269%20Oct.%2002%2018.16.png 

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2 minutes ago, cdhay17 said:

The storm is more west than any of the models have it running at right now. Past the 75 line before the 15 line. Don't think any model had that on the 18z runs. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Exactly, which is why you guys are looking silly saying "stick a fork in it". 

He will definitely affect the east coast.

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1 minute ago, cdhay17 said:

The storm is more west than any of the models have it running at right now. Past the 75 line before the 15 line. Don't think any model had that on the 18z runs. Correct me if I'm wrong.

A few spaghetti models had it... Of course they were some of the more worthless models though.

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1 minute ago, cdhay17 said:

Wasn't the NAM pretty spot on with guiding Hermine in regards to where it made landfall in Florida?

It was okay... But the NAM is almost always terrible with tropical cyclones... For reference it has Matthew as a mild TS as it hits Cuba.

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

It was okay... But the NAM is almost always terrible with tropical cyclones... For reference it has Matthew as a mild TS as it hits Cuba.

I know with the strength of Hermine it was terribly wrong (had it way way too strong), but I think it had it tracking pretty spot on.

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Matthew holding on as hard as he can with the westward trajectory.  

It would be just our luck if it ended up in the GOM, although I can't really see that happening unless that trough trends significantly weaker and more north.  

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

Matthew holding on as hard as he can with the westward trajectory.  

It would be just our luck if it ended up in the GOM, although I can't really see that happening unless that trough trends significantly weaker and more north.  

Some euro ensembles actually bring the storm into the gulf.

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