Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: per allan@RaleighWx on twitter. weird euro run for sure. Looks like a backwards question mark for we have no clue what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Keeps nudging west. 74.8 it appears now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said: Before anyone starts crying over what happens with the rest of the run, the initialization of the ECMWF thought that the convective blob to the east was the dominant center.... Keep that in mind. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 It looks like the GIV flight is going to be doing upper air sampling over the storm proper. If so, would this be the first GIV flight directly over/ around this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 My boss who has family in Jamaica is getting a live FB feed and I can confirm minor-moderate flooding already occurring on parts of the island. Sideways rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The ocean buoy(s) that I mentioned yesterday are now within 35 nm of the eye. One is due north now and the other one (42058) is north-north-west. By 22z I would expect these to be 25-30 nm northeast and NNE. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=14.3N&lon1=74.6W&uom=E&dist=250&ot=A&time=3 Looks from the lat-long that 42058 which reports hourly will be a bit closer to the eye than 42T58 which seems to be about 8 nm east-north-east of 42058. Last report showed almost a 30 mb gradient to center and winds now approaching hurricane gusts. Should be interesting if these two can stay operational. 42058 may take readings a bit higher off the surface too, waves are already at 28 feet, not too confident that either of these rather small buoys will remain operational (they may go flat on their sides and need a service call next week). I think the west wobble fits my solar-lunar concept (moon was almost overhead at 20z, sun at 17z) and a northward (NNW) turn should begin soon. Would predict that the eyewall might brush 42058 around 23z to 01 z, winds there should veer from east to south then eventually west to northwest, all at cat-2 or cat-3 speeds. Doubtful that the buoy(s) can handle that but sometimes they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 42 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: It looks like the GIV flight is going to be doing upper air sampling over the storm proper. If so, would this be the first GIV flight directly over/ around this storm? They did so the last 2 days.. nothing usual about orbiting the storm. Helps measure shear and outflow. I'm kinda bummed that they are sampling the diving cutoff over the gulf instead of the strength of the ridge over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 hours ago, Superstorm93 said: Before anyone starts crying over what happens with the rest of the run, the initialization of the ECMWF thought that the convective blob to the east was the dominant center.... Keep that in mind. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk If you look at the low to the left, you'll see it's past 75W, so Matthew is the correct dominant low in the Euro init. I checked the current steering currents and 850mb vorticity, and it appears, that indeed, there's some sort of mid/low level low to the west of Matthew. The steering currents are very different for the low/mid level (west) versus the upper levels (northwest to north), so this low may actually be imparting some of the more western motion than anticipated by the currently forecasted track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: They did so the last 2 days.. nothing usual about orbiting the storm. Helps measure shear and outflow. I'm kinda bummed that they are sampling the diving cutoff over the gulf instead of the strength of the ridge over the Atlantic. Thanks, I just didnt know if they had flown a GIV over the storm yet. I also agree on that low. A couple of days ago there was discussion on it's influence on the storms track, it may be coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Thanks, I just didnt know if they had flown a GIV over the storm yet. I also agree on that low. A couple of days ago there was discussion on it's influence on the storms track, it may be coming to fruition. Occasionally Gonzo will fly overstorm in conjunction with the P3 or other science missions. It rarely flies overstorm for tasked missions, or if the storm is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Tip. For those of you who are watching the "75w movement" etc. You can use this page here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-vis-short.html and use the check boxes to overlay lat/lon along with clicking "fcstpts" to load the forecast over-top to get a better look. From my eye, it doesn't look horribly off. Suppose they expect a stronger North turn very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Latest vis appears to have him right on top of 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Interesting tweet by Ryan Maue showing, potentially a huge cloudy area from hurricane Matthew later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Forecast vs "actual" - you will need to check the Lon/Lat and F'cast boxes to get the message http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 already over 75w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Next Recon mission is en route. Interested to see how strong the southern eye wall is now, as the eye has disappeared/ became cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew now officially over 75 w. And it did this under 15N. Edit: 18z GFS just started. Very interested to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Is an ERC happening now? Looks like it is underway on latest sat imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 lol recon is turning back. Guess they encountered some problems? Edit: Never mind. It just looked that way on the map for a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: lol recon is turning back. Guess they encountered some problems? No they are still en route... There must've been a small issue sending back data for a bit that caused the bearing info to blackout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 18z is probably going to be east. Not sure of the extent but probably east. The subtropical ridge is weaker and the trough is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 18z is probably going to be east. Not sure of the extent but probably east. The subtropical ridge is weaker and the trough is stronger.Actually, the digging trough being more amplified to the west could allow more ridging NE of Matthew. Just @ 96 hrs now, we'll see how it plays out.Edit: The major players look pretty much the same as the 12z run so far 126 hrs out. The hurricane looks very close on position to the last run. At least were starting to get some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 It's a little south east,slower up to hour 108,but much lower pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Full-res GFS continues to show a cat ~4 north of the Bahamas late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kebatusa Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Newbie question alert. How often are the computer models updated? Is it a constant thing, every hour,every 4 hours? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Just now, kebatusa said: Newbie question alert. How often are the computer models updated? Is it a constant thing, every hour,every 4 hours? Thanks Every day at 1 & 7 a/pm Eastern Time. Runs usually take about an hour or so to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew certainly has the potential to become an absolutely massive storm one it gets into the Bahamas this week. The upper-outflow should be as close to perfect as it can get in all quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, kebatusa said: Newbie question alert. How often are the computer models updated? Is it a constant thing, every hour,every 4 hours? Thanks GFS is every 6 hours Euro is every 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said: Every day at 1 & 7 a/pm Eastern Time. Runs usually take about an hour or so to come out. ** 1/7 AM/PM central time. Its 2/8 on east coast. But besides that, it depends on the model. Some are every 6 hours, some are 12, some are even every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, kebatusa said: Newbie question alert. How often are the computer models updated? Is it a constant thing, every hour,every 4 hours? Thanks GFS runs 4 times a day to the public, at 0Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z. The Euro runs twice a day, at it's 0Z and 12Z The GEM runs twice a day as well, once again at 0Z and 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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