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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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The ocean buoy(s) that I mentioned yesterday are now within 35 nm of the eye. One is due north now and the other one (42058) is north-north-west. By 22z I would expect these to be 25-30 nm northeast and NNE.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=14.3N&lon1=74.6W&uom=E&dist=250&ot=A&time=3

Looks from the lat-long that 42058 which reports hourly will be a bit closer to the eye than 42T58 which seems to be about 8 nm east-north-east of 42058. Last report showed almost a 30 mb gradient to center and winds now approaching hurricane gusts. 

Should be interesting if these two can stay operational. 42058 may take readings a bit higher off the surface too, waves are already at 28 feet, not too confident that either of these rather small buoys will remain operational (they may go flat on their sides and need a service call next week). 

I think the west wobble fits my solar-lunar concept (moon was almost overhead at 20z, sun at 17z) and a northward (NNW) turn should begin soon. Would predict that the eyewall might brush 42058 around 23z to 01 z, winds there should veer from east to south then eventually west to northwest, all at cat-2 or cat-3 speeds. Doubtful that the buoy(s) can handle that but sometimes they do. 

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42 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

It looks like the GIV flight is going to be doing upper air sampling over the storm proper.  If so, would this be the first GIV flight directly over/ around this storm? 

They did so the last 2 days.. nothing usual about orbiting the storm. Helps measure shear and outflow. I'm kinda bummed that they are sampling the diving cutoff over the gulf instead of the strength of the ridge over the Atlantic.

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2 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

Before anyone starts crying over what happens with the rest of the run, the initialization of the ECMWF thought that the convective blob to the east was the dominant center....

Keep that in mind.
ec000ef148ddea64b1c45fcef6a80dc4.jpg

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
 

If you look at the low to the left, you'll see it's past 75W, so Matthew is the correct dominant low in the Euro init. I checked the current steering currents and 850mb vorticity, and it appears, that indeed, there's some sort of mid/low level low to the west of Matthew. The steering currents are very different for the low/mid level (west) versus the upper levels (northwest to north), so this low may actually be imparting some of the more western motion than anticipated by the currently forecasted track.

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1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

They did so the last 2 days.. nothing usual about orbiting the storm. Helps measure shear and outflow. I'm kinda bummed that they are sampling the diving cutoff over the gulf instead of the strength of the ridge over the Atlantic.

Thanks, I just didnt know if they had flown a GIV over the storm yet.  I also agree on that low.  A couple of days ago there was discussion on it's influence on the storms track, it may be coming to fruition.

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Thanks, I just didnt know if they had flown a GIV over the storm yet.  I also agree on that low.  A couple of days ago there was discussion on it's influence on the storms track, it may be coming to fruition.

Occasionally Gonzo will fly overstorm in conjunction with the P3 or other science missions. It rarely flies overstorm for tasked missions, or if the storm is strong.

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Tip.  For those of you who are watching the "75w movement" etc.  You can use this page here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-vis-short.html and use the check boxes to overlay lat/lon along with clicking "fcstpts" to load the forecast over-top to get a better look.


From my eye, it doesn't look horribly off.  Suppose they expect a stronger North turn very soon.

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4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

lol recon is turning back. Guess they encountered some problems?

No they are still en route... There must've been a small issue sending back data for a bit that caused the bearing info to blackout.

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18z is probably going to be east. Not sure of the extent but probably east. The subtropical ridge is weaker and the trough is stronger.

Actually, the digging trough being more amplified to the west could allow more ridging NE of Matthew. Just @ 96 hrs now, we'll see how it plays out.

Edit: The major players look pretty much the same as the 12z run so far 126 hrs out. The hurricane looks very close on position to the last run. At least were starting to get some consistency.

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1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said:

Every day at 1 & 7 a/pm Eastern Time. Runs usually take about an hour or so to come out. 

** 1/7 AM/PM central time. Its 2/8 on east coast. But besides that, it depends on the model. Some are every 6 hours, some are 12, some are even every hour.

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1 minute ago, kebatusa said:

Newbie question alert. How often are the computer models updated? Is it a constant thing, every hour,every 4 hours? Thanks

GFS runs 4 times a day to the public, at 0Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z.

The Euro runs twice a day, at it's 0Z and 12Z

The GEM runs twice a day as well, once again at 0Z and 12Z.

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