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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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Also very evident in satellite imagery is the textbook anti-cyclone now parked over the north central Caribbean. Outflow is responding and establishing in all quadrants. If you're looking for a recipe for favorable upper atmospheric support, this is it. Obviously concerned for Haiti, as the convergence with eastern banding over Hispaniola would support extreme rainfall. Regardless if the core makes landfall or misses to the west, the potential for catastrophic flooding is high.



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IF, and IF, it makes landfall on the east coat or skirts the east coast, it will eventually recurve because of the weakening atlantic ridge or the trough swinging through, or a combo of both.  
This isn't a storm that will make landfall and drive due north through NC like Hazel, based on the data I'm looking at.

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

IF, and IF, it makes landfall on the east coat or skirts the east coast, it will eventually recurve because of the weakening atlantic ridge or the trough swinging through, or a combo of both.  
This isn't a storm that will make landfall and drive due north through NC like Hazel, based on the data I'm looking at.

We don't know that for sure. It will all depend on how fast the ULL in the northeast breaks down and the speed of this storm.

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As the 12z model runs stands: 

Canadian: East 

GFS: East 

UKMet: West

Euro: NA 

 

CONUS landfall prob now 50%. I believe Mathew will phase with the trough, but will make landfall in Canada. System is almost moving due north, giving more credence to the east tracks.  

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10 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

As the 12z model runs stands: 

Canadian: East 

GFS: East 

UKMet: West

Euro: NA 

 

CONUS landfall prob now 50%. I believe Mathew will phase with the trough, but will make landfall in Canada. System is almost moving due north, giving more credence to the east tracks.  

Latest sat frame of Matthew have him moving more west now.

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It's stair stepping NW which isn't unusual for strong storms.  Looking at the overall envelope and not focusing on the center you can see it.  At 11am the NHC did not have it hitting 75W for 24 hrs and then bending it back east not to hit 75W again for another 48 hrs.  If it doesn't start getting a more northward component soon it' going to be well ahead of that timeline and further west than forecast.  It will be interesting to see if it does actually bend back east as forecast and when it starts to take on a more northward component.  

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I don't see the huge NE jog from 24 to 48 hours verifying on the Euro.   There's nothing significant around to make this occur.  It's also not recognizing the full strength and slower speed of Matt.   It pushed it NE as if it were a weak depression. 

Euro has always had a history of being too progressive.

run ignored.

EDIT:  Superstorm good point.   Just noticed that.

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I know this is short term but it could have implications in the future.  From WV loop the ridging to it's NE has been expanding W for the last 48 hours. I'm curious if the storm is pumping the ridge to it's NE.  Strong canes will do that and that aspect is never modeled well.  It may not be that big of deal but every tick farther west than forecast slows the northward progression which could have larger implications down the road.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

It may not be that big of deal but every tick farther west than forecast slows the northward progression which could have larger implications down the road.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

 

I could see that happening for most of today.   Jamaica will at-least get brushed.

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1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

This has to be one of the most hardest to forecast canes in awhile.

Bad model performance prior to this point with the system, and bad model performance later on with very little consistency. 

Also, are my eyes deceiving me or is the ridge to Matthew's northeast continuing to build further west?

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3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

This has to be one of the most hardest to forecast canes in awhile.

Nah anytime you got a north moving storm up along the east coast its a PITA, small track changes can equal big changes on land fall location or even if there is a land fall due to the angle of the coast. Seems to be the models are at least agreeing somewhat that  Matt gets within a few hundred miles of the SE coast at least beyond that it wont be any clearer till tomorrow or later.....living in eastern NC we get use to these things being tough to forecast....its never a sure thing.

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17 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Any red tag input on this? going back 2 pages I see no posts

Every model except the JMA or UKMet is a non-conus landfall or a fish. This could change in the next few runs. It will be a few days before the exact track will be nailed down. 

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It sure is doing it's utmost best to avoid any kind of land mass. That's a pretty incredible track. It splits the uprights between Cuba and Haiti and then semi circles around off the southeast coast before shooting northeast...

 

1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

per allan@RaleighWx on twitter.  weird euro run for sure.CtyPTmbVYAEQoyg.jpg:large

 

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