hlcater Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 definite speed maxes here. Too cluttered to see if one is taking over or not, but definitely looks like a ERC in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Dropsonde in the north eyewall. Pressure remains 945-946 MB with a separate dropsonde in the center a few minutes prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Recon finding 140kt winds in the NE quadrant of Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Recon finding 140kt winds in the NE quadrant of Matthew Did that get flagged or not? If not pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 He's cat 5 again based on Recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Also very evident in satellite imagery is the textbook anti-cyclone now parked over the north central Caribbean. Outflow is responding and establishing in all quadrants. If you're looking for a recipe for favorable upper atmospheric support, this is it. Obviously concerned for Haiti, as the convergence with eastern banding over Hispaniola would support extreme rainfall. Regardless if the core makes landfall or misses to the west, the potential for catastrophic flooding is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 IF, and IF, it makes landfall on the east coat or skirts the east coast, it will eventually recurve because of the weakening atlantic ridge or the trough swinging through, or a combo of both. This isn't a storm that will make landfall and drive due north through NC like Hazel, based on the data I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: He's cat 5 again based on Recon. Nope. the 139 knots was flagged. 135 knot one was not so 155 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I almost wonder if the aircraft ended up flying through a mesovortex. Those winds are much higher than earlier readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: IF, and IF, it makes landfall on the east coat or skirts the east coast, it will eventually recurve because of the weakening atlantic ridge or the trough swinging through, or a combo of both. This isn't a storm that will make landfall and drive due north through NC like Hazel, based on the data I'm looking at. We don't know that for sure. It will all depend on how fast the ULL in the northeast breaks down and the speed of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Looks like it is finally moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Greg Fishel also posted that large hurricanes tend to create their own ridge to the NE of the system based on warm air and condensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 As the 12z model runs stands: Canadian: East GFS: East UKMet: West Euro: NA CONUS landfall prob now 50%. I believe Mathew will phase with the trough, but will make landfall in Canada. System is almost moving due north, giving more credence to the east tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: As the 12z model runs stands: Canadian: East GFS: East UKMet: West Euro: NA CONUS landfall prob now 50%. I believe Mathew will phase with the trough, but will make landfall in Canada. System is almost moving due north, giving more credence to the east tracks. Latest sat frame of Matthew have him moving more west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Latest sat frame of sat are more west now. Wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Before anyone starts crying over what happens with the rest of the run, the initialization of the ECMWF thought that the convective blob to the east was the dominant center....Keep that in mind. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 It's stair stepping NW which isn't unusual for strong storms. Looking at the overall envelope and not focusing on the center you can see it. At 11am the NHC did not have it hitting 75W for 24 hrs and then bending it back east not to hit 75W again for another 48 hrs. If it doesn't start getting a more northward component soon it' going to be well ahead of that timeline and further west than forecast. It will be interesting to see if it does actually bend back east as forecast and when it starts to take on a more northward component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I don't see the huge NE jog from 24 to 48 hours verifying on the Euro. There's nothing significant around to make this occur. It's also not recognizing the full strength and slower speed of Matt. It pushed it NE as if it were a weak depression. Euro has always had a history of being too progressive. run ignored. EDIT: Superstorm good point. Just noticed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I know this is short term but it could have implications in the future. From WV loop the ridging to it's NE has been expanding W for the last 48 hours. I'm curious if the storm is pumping the ridge to it's NE. Strong canes will do that and that aspect is never modeled well. It may not be that big of deal but every tick farther west than forecast slows the northward progression which could have larger implications down the road. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: It may not be that big of deal but every tick farther west than forecast slows the northward progression which could have larger implications down the road. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html I could see that happening for most of today. Jamaica will at-least get brushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew about to pass 75 W. Looks like it is currently 74.7 W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Aside from yet another bad initialization (it does not appear to effect the runs whatsoever, in the mid/long term at least), the 12Z euro remains largely unchanged from 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Any red tag input on this? going back 2 pages I see no posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 This has to be one of the most hardest to forecast canes in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: This has to be one of the most hardest to forecast canes in awhile. Bad model performance prior to this point with the system, and bad model performance later on with very little consistency. Also, are my eyes deceiving me or is the ridge to Matthew's northeast continuing to build further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: This has to be one of the most hardest to forecast canes in awhile. Nah anytime you got a north moving storm up along the east coast its a PITA, small track changes can equal big changes on land fall location or even if there is a land fall due to the angle of the coast. Seems to be the models are at least agreeing somewhat that Matt gets within a few hundred miles of the SE coast at least beyond that it wont be any clearer till tomorrow or later.....living in eastern NC we get use to these things being tough to forecast....its never a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 17 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Any red tag input on this? going back 2 pages I see no posts Every model except the JMA or UKMet is a non-conus landfall or a fish. This could change in the next few runs. It will be a few days before the exact track will be nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Well seems not to be a wobble. Matthew still moving more west than north albeit very slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 per allan@RaleighWx on twitter. weird euro run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 It sure is doing it's utmost best to avoid any kind of land mass. That's a pretty incredible track. It splits the uprights between Cuba and Haiti and then semi circles around off the southeast coast before shooting northeast... 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: per allan@RaleighWx on twitter. weird euro run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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