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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

 Sounds like we just have to wait and watch, and it is going to be a close call between out to sea and landfall. Greg Fishel at WRAL said this:

MATTHEW'S ONLY CHANCE TO MAKE LANDFALL ON OUR COAST DEPENDENT ON SOMETHING THAT HASN'T DEVELOPED YET

With Major Hurricane Matthew making its much anticipated turn to the north, the only way our coast takes a direct hit is if something else shoves it back toward the west. Matthew's current longitude is 74.3 W and Cape Hatteras is 75.5 W. Matthew will in all likelihood turn northward and perhaps even a bit east of north in the next 24 hours. Were that trend to continue, rough surf and gusty winds but no landfall. However there are some indications that an upper level ridge will build over the mid-Atlantic and northeast states by Tue or Wed. If this happens, Matthew would turn back to the Northwest. So here are the main considerations:

1. How far east is Matthew in about 48 hours?
2. Does that ridge over the northeast develop mid week and shove Matthew back to the west?
3. Even if #2 happens, will Matthew be too far east at the start of that process for it to matter?
4. Oh and one other thing. Strong hurricanes have been known to build ridges to their northeast due to the transport northward of air warmed by condensation. This would also result in a more westward track.

No easy answers yet-stay tuned!

mathew 74.6 w and heading west at the moment...

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21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Id imagine the further west it gets the greater chance of it not getting flung OTS, correct?

Maybe but it would mean he would have to take a sharper turn to the east to miss. If he gets a little further west and has a track like the GFS of a more NNE movement then that would be worse and maybe a little further inland. There is a long time to have to wait and watch what happens.

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5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Are we looking for Matthew to clear 75W by a certain point?

No not really, well at least down there, 75W only matters off the SE coast, once he goes west of 75W he at some point has to go east enough to recross 75W before he gets to Hatteras or he hits land....he can go back and forth until he gets to around 35N at that point he hit land.

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With the more defined outer maxima in recon data and the evident strong surrounding symmetrical banding feature, we likely do have a strengthening, albeit slowly, outer eyewall. Keep in mind an ERC can take a long time or a very short time. They can even sometimes fail. The inner eye feeds off the outer band and if that outer band weakens or wanes in development, the inner eyewall can hang around longer, hold its own or even reintensify depending how much it is not being cutoff from the outer band's low level converging updraft.

Matthew's primary eyewall has persisted and restrengthened already with the previous strong outer band. The core has yet to undergo a full ERC in its history. However, this process is fluid and can change dramatically in a short period of time. Given the current favorable environment and high OHC, that developing outer eyewall will probably take over in the next 12 hrs. Matthew will probably have a much larger eye before encountering land. The key is how much the new primary eyewall will reintensify before impacting the Greater Antilles.

We're still a good 36 to 48 hrs out. It could even bomb out again and go through another ERC. This stuff is near impossible to forecast.




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I'm shocked so many people are not buying this thing moving much more west than the models have predicted. If people remember with Katrina as it moved into the Gulf everyone was painting a gloom and doom situation for the Panhandle taking yet another beating, yet it continued to deepen and shift east until it eventually showed that the LA/MS area was going to be the bullseye of the monster it would become. 

When you have a storm still fairly south of the mid latitudes this strong the coriolis force simply won't push it far enough east to miss the coast

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Why don't we just all admit that we have no clue what the hell is going to happen... Run to run consistency is pretty nil.

Bingo. There is too much inconsistency in modeling with the overall large scale down stream steering environment. Anybody declaring certainty on land interaction or no land interaction after the Bahamas is just throwing darts.

I'd really like to see way more consensus and consistency of that consensus in the main globals before having any confidence in anything beyond the Bahamas. I don't think we're going to get that until Matthew has a solid forward motion and an established direction of motion greater than 10-12 kts. That probably won't occur until after 12z tomorrow. Then the models can start getting a better idea of timing with respect to the other large and small scale features that can influence that track.

Everything outside of 72 even 48 hours is swimming in a high degree of uncertainty right now.

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Hazel is still the #1 analog. When I saw the Euro days ago suggesting a path that threads the islands, Hazel immediately came to mind. However, the Hazel trough was sharper than the one the GFS currently models. If nothing else, Hazel shows the potential for a storm to strengthen significantly in the Atlantic even in mid October.

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