PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Looks like Matthew is starting to redevelop an eye as per the latest sat image. Maybe a comeback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Sounds like we just have to wait and watch, and it is going to be a close call between out to sea and landfall. Greg Fishel at WRAL said this: MATTHEW'S ONLY CHANCE TO MAKE LANDFALL ON OUR COAST DEPENDENT ON SOMETHING THAT HASN'T DEVELOPED YET With Major Hurricane Matthew making its much anticipated turn to the north, the only way our coast takes a direct hit is if something else shoves it back toward the west. Matthew's current longitude is 74.3 W and Cape Hatteras is 75.5 W. Matthew will in all likelihood turn northward and perhaps even a bit east of north in the next 24 hours. Were that trend to continue, rough surf and gusty winds but no landfall. However there are some indications that an upper level ridge will build over the mid-Atlantic and northeast states by Tue or Wed. If this happens, Matthew would turn back to the Northwest. So here are the main considerations: 1. How far east is Matthew in about 48 hours? 2. Does that ridge over the northeast develop mid week and shove Matthew back to the west? 3. Even if #2 happens, will Matthew be too far east at the start of that process for it to matter? 4. Oh and one other thing. Strong hurricanes have been known to build ridges to their northeast due to the transport northward of air warmed by condensation. This would also result in a more westward track. No easy answers yet-stay tuned! mathew 74.6 w and heading west at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Id imagine the further west it gets the greater chance of it not getting flung OTS, correct? Maybe but it would mean he would have to take a sharper turn to the east to miss. If he gets a little further west and has a track like the GFS of a more NNE movement then that would be worse and maybe a little further inland. There is a long time to have to wait and watch what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Looks like Matthew will cross 75W by the 2pm advisory. If he somehow manages to even get to 77W then it's all but certain of a US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 11am update West at 3mph Located at 74.6W http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Are we looking for Matthew to clear 75W by a certain point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Are we looking for Matthew to clear 75W by a certain point? dunno, but where are the 1 minute sat updates. sucks that they took it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I'm just looking for Matthew to get over 75W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Are we looking for Matthew to clear 75W by a certain point? No not really, well at least down there, 75W only matters off the SE coast, once he goes west of 75W he at some point has to go east enough to recross 75W before he gets to Hatteras or he hits land....he can go back and forth until he gets to around 35N at that point he hit land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Eye is looking much better the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12z GFS run has Matthew running a tad bit slower than earlier today's models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 17 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Eye is looking much better the past hour Indeed. Looks like its going to be the new, larger eye as well. Wonder how long the ERC process will take today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 If Matthew doesn't get moving, he's gonna start upwelling cooler waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 With the more defined outer maxima in recon data and the evident strong surrounding symmetrical banding feature, we likely do have a strengthening, albeit slowly, outer eyewall. Keep in mind an ERC can take a long time or a very short time. They can even sometimes fail. The inner eye feeds off the outer band and if that outer band weakens or wanes in development, the inner eyewall can hang around longer, hold its own or even reintensify depending how much it is not being cutoff from the outer band's low level converging updraft.Matthew's primary eyewall has persisted and restrengthened already with the previous strong outer band. The core has yet to undergo a full ERC in its history. However, this process is fluid and can change dramatically in a short period of time. Given the current favorable environment and high OHC, that developing outer eyewall will probably take over in the next 12 hrs. Matthew will probably have a much larger eye before encountering land. The key is how much the new primary eyewall will reintensify before impacting the Greater Antilles.We're still a good 36 to 48 hrs out. It could even bomb out again and go through another ERC. This stuff is near impossible to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 This ERC could have not came at a "better" time. Weaker means it was able to push West a tad more. Going 60% confidence of a CONUS landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The land interaction , or becoming close to land , will make winds and precip fields expand out more. It'll become more compact as a whole (satellite ) , but also expand out more in terms of wind / rain. Kind of like how Hermine did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I'm shocked so many people are not buying this thing moving much more west than the models have predicted. If people remember with Katrina as it moved into the Gulf everyone was painting a gloom and doom situation for the Panhandle taking yet another beating, yet it continued to deepen and shift east until it eventually showed that the LA/MS area was going to be the bullseye of the monster it would become. When you have a storm still fairly south of the mid latitudes this strong the coriolis force simply won't push it far enough east to miss the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12z GFS *crickets* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 GFS looks to be OTS @ 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Definitely OTS this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Looks like the Ukmet is showing a southern Florida Hit between 120 and 144hrs... the plot thickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Slower progression on the GFS allows the high ample time to slide east, thus providing an exit route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Why don't we just all admit that we have no clue what the hell is going to happen... Run to run consistency is pretty nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Why don't we just all admit that we have no clue what the hell is going to happen... Run to run consistency is pretty nil. This. I'm just enjoying having something to track at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 As this rate I'm half expecting the Euro to end up slamming the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Why don't we just all admit that we have no clue what the hell is going to happen... Run to run consistency is pretty nil.Bingo. There is too much inconsistency in modeling with the overall large scale down stream steering environment. Anybody declaring certainty on land interaction or no land interaction after the Bahamas is just throwing darts.I'd really like to see way more consensus and consistency of that consensus in the main globals before having any confidence in anything beyond the Bahamas. I don't think we're going to get that until Matthew has a solid forward motion and an established direction of motion greater than 10-12 kts. That probably won't occur until after 12z tomorrow. Then the models can start getting a better idea of timing with respect to the other large and small scale features that can influence that track.Everything outside of 72 even 48 hours is swimming in a high degree of uncertainty right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12z Ukie is west and hits Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 When it's this far out in the game I just like to rate is as possible or not. I think the majority of us are answering yes as of this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Hazel is still the #1 analog. When I saw the Euro days ago suggesting a path that threads the islands, Hazel immediately came to mind. However, the Hazel trough was sharper than the one the GFS currently models. If nothing else, Hazel shows the potential for a storm to strengthen significantly in the Atlantic even in mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Think recon found cat 5 winds again. Not sure if it's flagged or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.