PaEasternWX Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 Based on pressure it looks like the Euro shows a Cat 4 smacking Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 In the near term, it would appear this system will not be revving up very quickly. It's struggling a bit with dry air (because Atlantic) and recon isn't finding much out there, yet. There are certainly some interesting track possibilities down the road. Where it ultimately ends up is anyone's guess at 7-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Winds of tropical storm force found. Circulation continues to remain open. EDIT: that is 35mph, tropical tidbits playing tricks on the eyes. Two obs close together made it look like 40kts, but then it would be green and not blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Euro mean is in the gulf http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016092712&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=927 Lots of spread though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 18z GFS is so far a little more west then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 The ridge looks to be building more this run through 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 18z GFS has a major hurricane striking New York City next Saturday. GFS keeps trending west with every run, maybe following Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Just now, cdhay17 said: 18z GFS has a major hurricane striking New York City next Saturday. GFS keeps trending west with every run, maybe following Euro? GFS actually had this solution earlier today on the 06Z run. We will see who cares first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Purely speculative odds OTS:20% East coast impact but no landfall:20% East coast landfall:35% S florida Landfall into E half of GOM: 20% Into W GOM: 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 The number of cutoff lows, ridges, jet phasings, split flows, trough/ridge movements and intensities, etc. that will be influencing the cyclone and that have to be choreographed perfectly to arrive at what the GFS shows at D10 is mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 A lot of support from the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Through D6/7. After that? Not really. Regardless, given the way the GEFS works off of the operational GFS, that is really not the best measure of spread amongst the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 hours ago, WeatherFan202 said: Based on pressure it looks like the Euro shows a Cat 4 smacking Florida. Back when I was at CSU, I used to go to the CIRA building to discuss weather every day. The small crowd that gathered every day had a little joke that they pulled out when a system was going in the Atlantic. No matter what the cloud pattern looked like, no matter what the lat/lon, somebody would say "Cat 5 into Miami" as a joke. I guess the Euro may be playing a little "Cat 4 into Miami" joke on us. Well I certainly hope we have no Cat 4 in the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 0z Hurricane Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 0z Hurricane Models they've been trending west, now over eastern cuba, yesterday was over DR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I'll go with the "fails to develop at all" scenario. That seems to be the theme this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'll go with the "fails to develop at all" scenario. That seems to be the theme this season. Your not being serious right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'll go with the "fails to develop at all" scenario. That seems to be the theme this season. You cancelled last January's blizzard three days before and said Harrisburg wouldn't get more than 3". I had 31". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'll go with the "fails to develop at all" scenario. That seems to be the theme this season. It is nearly a depression right now and the synoptic pattern is very favorable. A post like yours is completely lacking any evidence and pretty useless to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 should be TD tomorrow.. DT 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: 0z Hurricane Models It's a given. A developing system approaching the islands, the models always seem to have an eastern bias. heck even with developed systems. Something I've noticed over the years. you can go back and look at NHC track forecasts for systems east of the islands, no matter the latitude, and past 72 hours they consistently move the cone westward, up to a point. There always seems to be an eastern bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Stebo said: It is nearly a depression right now and the synoptic pattern is very favorable. A post like yours is completely lacking any evidence and pretty useless to be honest. Agreed... In all honesty I'm pretty terrified about what this system is going to do once it gets past Cuba (or wherever it ends up.) This is a very large wave, so it's likely to be a large storm with a wide range of significant impacts. First, Cuba/Hispanola is going to deal with a hurricane though, *possibly* Cat 3+. Seeing the GFS/GEFS strongly hint at a sandy'esque storm (in track, strength, and size) is scary, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 00z GFS continues the westward trend. Makes land fall in NC shortly after hour 216, NE ridge holds strong and blocks plains trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 FYI, the 0z GFS takes it into NC as a 940mb cane. The important feature I've been seeing on the GFS is the high pressure over Maine to Nova Scotia and a weak high in the Atlantic. There is nowhere for a storm to go but the coast on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 After landfall GFS starts working it's way up the coast. From the GEM so far I can tell its gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, JasonOH said: FYI, the 0z GFS takes it into NC as a 940mb cane. The important feature I've been seeing on the GFS is the high pressure over Maine to Nova Scotia and a weak high in the Atlantic. There is nowhere for a storm to go but the coast on the GFS. Yeah that's my MBY's weenie run right there, would put me right in the center...but I show it as a 965-970MB storm at landfall nowhere near a 940..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 0Z GEM rides up the coast as a 972 to 973 mb Hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah that's my MBY's weenie run right there, would put me right in the center...but I show it as a 965-970MB storm at landfall nowhere near a 940..... I believe he's referring to the surface pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GEM rides up the coast as a 972 to 973 mb Hurricane Funny thing is yesterday at 00Z the GEM basically had the same solution the GFS just had at tonights 00Z, the GFS has been coming west and the GEM is going back east....after a few more days the models will have run just about every scenario and one of them will end up right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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