Jason WX Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 28 GFS runs left how worse will this get lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A week out man? You are better than this. I spoke in no absolutes. But I'm simply not that intrigued anymore regarding impacts in NE...it's always a long shot, anyway. I'm not sure why some folks can wrap their minds around that.....the winter analogy is absolutely asinine. Snowstorms are far more likely than LI expresses. Even the "favorable suites"....if you actually looked at the ens packages, there were hardly any that made LF in SNE...most were either inland south, or OTS. Still a very important system....just not for this area imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 can't sleep.. Euro = further west at 144. 50 to 100 miles more west. just off the coast of north-central Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 168 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Trough is weak and much further north into east central Canada at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Still a decent number of US landfall ECMWF ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 06Z GFS back to the coastal riding solution, nails SC to Long Island through hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Wow 6z GFS massive changes. Hugs MA coast after brief landfall in E NC.I saw the Euro made a large shift West too. Much of the East Coast still not out-of-the-woods just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 5 AM Advisory cone has the Hurricane headed in the direction of the Southeastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Latest GFDL hurricane model implying a hit to Eastern NC. If anything there now seems to be more separation in mid range guidance than 24 hrs ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/782548421592883200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12z spaghetti shifted well west. By a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12z spaghetti shifted well west. By a lot.Several EC landfalls now presented. Also noticed a few plots taking this into the GOM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Several EC landfalls now presented. Also noticed a few plots taking this into the GOM now. None do. That is taking it into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 None do. That is taking it into the GOM.My bad I was going off of local news on TV that showed updated plots and there were 4 tracking that direction. Must have been a different product. Clearly outliers in any event. Thanks for posting the plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Several EC landfalls now presented. Also noticed a few plots taking this into the GOM now. Gulf of Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 There are a cluster of models in that image Wiggum posted which end around 35N. They would support the west shift too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 OP GFS is an outlier- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Just now, Cheeznado said: OP GFS is an outlier- We will see so far 12z has shifted more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Getting ready to cross 75W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: OP GFS is an outlier- GEFs shifted west at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 14 minutes ago, Midlo Snow Maker said: Getting ready to cross 75W I saw interesting on the weather channel yesterday, that the further west it ends up going, better chance it goes closer up the coast. Now idk how much truth is in that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: I saw interesting on the weather channel yesterday, that the further west it ends up going, better chance it goes closer up the coast. Now idk how much truth is in that though. Ian did some analysis and found that storms which cross the 75th Longitude have a very high chance of making landfall on the US EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The odds Matthew interacts with no land before the Bahamas are extremely slim, but the NHC track (at least for the 8am advisory) damn near allows him a perfect split between Haiti and Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ian did some analysis and found that storms which cross the 75th Longitude have a very high chance of making landfall on the US EC. Well that makes sense since Hatteras is smack on the 75W line, any storm that crosses 75W has to go back east before Hatteras or it hits the US....not that it cant do just that, they do it all the time and this one probably will, but just a north turn is now no longer good enough to get a miss.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The Air Force recon aircraft is finding a secondary wind max on the NE side of the storm. Another attempt at EWRC may be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Storm is still moving just south of due west. Definitely not the northwest as indicated in the current advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Id imagine the further west it gets the greater chance of it not getting flung OTS, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 29 minutes ago, JasonOH said: The Air Force recon aircraft is finding a secondary wind max on the NE side of the storm. Another attempt at EWRC may be coming. We've been waiting for an EWRC for 2 days now. We just aren't getting hurricanes anymore like the old days. We get these half-baked looking ones. Could be an issue with cloud tops falling over the years - http://www.livescience.com/18604-cloud-heights-declining.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Sounds like we just have to wait and watch, and it is going to be a close call between out to sea and landfall. Greg Fishel at WRAL said this: MATTHEW'S ONLY CHANCE TO MAKE LANDFALL ON OUR COAST DEPENDENT ON SOMETHING THAT HASN'T DEVELOPED YET With Major Hurricane Matthew making its much anticipated turn to the north, the only way our coast takes a direct hit is if something else shoves it back toward the west. Matthew's current longitude is 74.3 W and Cape Hatteras is 75.5 W. Matthew will in all likelihood turn northward and perhaps even a bit east of north in the next 24 hours. Were that trend to continue, rough surf and gusty winds but no landfall. However there are some indications that an upper level ridge will build over the mid-Atlantic and northeast states by Tue or Wed. If this happens, Matthew would turn back to the Northwest. So here are the main considerations: 1. How far east is Matthew in about 48 hours? 2. Does that ridge over the northeast develop mid week and shove Matthew back to the west? 3. Even if #2 happens, will Matthew be too far east at the start of that process for it to matter? 4. Oh and one other thing. Strong hurricanes have been known to build ridges to their northeast due to the transport northward of air warmed by condensation. This would also result in a more westward track. No easy answers yet-stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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