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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A week out man? You are better than this.

I spoke in no absolutes.

But I'm simply not that intrigued anymore regarding impacts in NE...it's always a long shot, anyway.

I'm not sure why some folks can wrap their minds around that.....the winter analogy is absolutely asinine. 

Snowstorms are far more likely than LI expresses.

Even the "favorable suites"....if you actually looked at the ens packages, there were hardly any that made LF in SNE...most were either inland south, or OTS.

Still a very important system....just not for this area imho.

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1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

I saw interesting on the weather channel yesterday, that the further west it ends up going, better chance it goes closer up the coast.

 

Now idk how much truth is in that though.

Ian did some analysis and found that storms which cross the 75th Longitude have a very high chance of making landfall on the US EC.

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14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ian did some analysis and found that storms which cross the 75th Longitude have a very high chance of making landfall on the US EC.

Well that makes sense since Hatteras is smack on the 75W line, any storm that crosses 75W has to go back east before Hatteras or it hits the US....not that it cant do just that, they do it all the time and this one probably will, but just a north turn is now no longer good enough to get a miss....

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29 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

The Air Force recon aircraft is finding a secondary wind max on the NE side of the storm.  Another attempt at EWRC may be coming.

 

We've been waiting for an EWRC for 2 days now.  We just aren't getting hurricanes anymore like the old days.  We get these half-baked looking ones.

Could be an issue with cloud tops falling over the years -

http://www.livescience.com/18604-cloud-heights-declining.html

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 Sounds like we just have to wait and watch, and it is going to be a close call between out to sea and landfall. Greg Fishel at WRAL said this:

MATTHEW'S ONLY CHANCE TO MAKE LANDFALL ON OUR COAST DEPENDENT ON SOMETHING THAT HASN'T DEVELOPED YET

With Major Hurricane Matthew making its much anticipated turn to the north, the only way our coast takes a direct hit is if something else shoves it back toward the west. Matthew's current longitude is 74.3 W and Cape Hatteras is 75.5 W. Matthew will in all likelihood turn northward and perhaps even a bit east of north in the next 24 hours. Were that trend to continue, rough surf and gusty winds but no landfall. However there are some indications that an upper level ridge will build over the mid-Atlantic and northeast states by Tue or Wed. If this happens, Matthew would turn back to the Northwest. So here are the main considerations:

1. How far east is Matthew in about 48 hours?
2. Does that ridge over the northeast develop mid week and shove Matthew back to the west?
3. Even if #2 happens, will Matthew be too far east at the start of that process for it to matter?
4. Oh and one other thing. Strong hurricanes have been known to build ridges to their northeast due to the transport northward of air warmed by condensation. This would also result in a more westward track.

No easy answers yet-stay tuned!

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