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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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Just now, masomenos said:

I wonder how responsible the strong convection to the east is for the all model inconsistencies we've been seeing...in both track forecast and intensity.

I doubt very much, most of the long term track issues are centered around the strength and path of the low well east of Matthew and the S/W and trough that is gonna dig in the central US middle of next week....and how the models handle those features....

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5 minutes ago, bugalou said:

 

Could it be orogenic uplift from the Sierra Nevada De Santa Marta range?

I'm not sure what dynamic forces are in play that may be enhancing the blob, but according to the GFS analysis anyway there is an extreme amount of instability on the east side of Matthew...like 4000+ j/kg of uncapped SBCAPE type of extreme. 

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6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I doubt very much, most of the long term track issues are centered around the strength and path of the low well east of Matthew and the S/W and trough that is gonna dig in the central US middle of next week....and how the models handle those features....

It's teetering a fine line being influenced by either feature, so you'd think any discrepancies at initialization would have a large impact on the long term track forecast. 

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15 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

GFS is well east of the previous run, misses NC. Clear move to the Euro.

Maybe but the trough just missed this storm. Plenty of more runs to go.

 

It's funny how people said earlier today how the Euro went towards the GFS. Now people are saying how the GFS is going towards to Euro lol

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