downeastnc Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Just now, masomenos said: I wonder how responsible the strong convection to the east is for the all model inconsistencies we've been seeing...in both track forecast and intensity. I doubt very much, most of the long term track issues are centered around the strength and path of the low well east of Matthew and the S/W and trough that is gonna dig in the central US middle of next week....and how the models handle those features.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Would suck to be a TV met explaining which is Mathew and which is just the blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, bugalou said: Could it be orogenic uplift from the Sierra Nevada De Santa Marta range? I'm not sure what dynamic forces are in play that may be enhancing the blob, but according to the GFS analysis anyway there is an extreme amount of instability on the east side of Matthew...like 4000+ j/kg of uncapped SBCAPE type of extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew is undergoing mitosis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I doubt very much, most of the long term track issues are centered around the strength and path of the low well east of Matthew and the S/W and trough that is gonna dig in the central US middle of next week....and how the models handle those features.... It's teetering a fine line being influenced by either feature, so you'd think any discrepancies at initialization would have a large impact on the long term track forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 It probably has a higher ADT number than Mathew at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 This isn't a banter thread. Stay on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 11 pm were moving north north west!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 11 pm were moving north north west!!! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml seems a tad (tad) east but north north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 NHC removed Florida completely from the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 NHC also expecting Matthew to remain a major hurricane throughout wherw earlier they thought it would losr enough intensity to drop out of the "major" catagory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Trend seems to be ridge building less this afternoon evening, thus encouraging an OTS after the bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Latest model guidance is out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I can see the high pressure system overpowering the the weak cold front. My guess is that Mathew will be a cat 2 up the coast. Kind of like Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 23 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Trend seems to be ridge building less this afternoon evening, thus encouraging an OTS after the bahamas. Its been building stronger on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 lol, GFS is back west again. (thru 48) Even gives a glancing blow to Jamaica. sleep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 GFS misses Haiti and Jamica this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Ridge still stronger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Low in the midwest is slower, ridge stronger, and low over the Atl less of a factor. edit: Ridge a hair weaker at hr 96.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Kicker is more pronounced...tough to tell...may get booted out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 GFS is well east of the previous run, misses NC. Clear move to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: GFS is well east of the previous run, misses NC. Clear move to the Euro. Of course, the EURO nails this one bc its a whiff....failed miserably on Hermine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Just now, Cheeznado said: GFS is well east of the previous run, misses NC. Clear move to the Euro. Yep, this being a stronger storm than expected they tend not to move as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I wonder if hurricanes can have a NW shift here on the models inside 72 hours like they usually do with the winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 really ugly phase with that front, curious to see if that has any ramifications as to how far N Matthew truly gets. The phase on the 18z was much cleaner and quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 15 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: GFS is well east of the previous run, misses NC. Clear move to the Euro. Maybe but the trough just missed this storm. Plenty of more runs to go. It's funny how people said earlier today how the Euro went towards the GFS. Now people are saying how the GFS is going towards to Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maybe but the trough just missed this storm. Plenty of more runs to go. It's funny how people said earlier today how the Euro went towards the GFS. Now people are saying how the GFS is going towards to Euro lol Do as you wish. I'm out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 It really doesn't matter at this point if every single model is out to sea. No one should write this off yet. We've seen abrupt changes within 24 hours this hurricane season thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do as you wish. I'm out on this one. A week out man? You are better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A week out man? You are better than this. The amount of fight or flight with each model run cracks me up. Almost as bad as winter at hour 200+ with the snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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