shaggy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 26 minutes ago, andyhb said: EPS consensus is overwhelmingly for a fish at this point. If the storm does start moving north now, that seems like a very prudent outcome. Wasn't the EPS overwhelmingly for a weaker system to slide much further west to over western Cuba and the GOM just a couple days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I humbly retract my Cleo analogy .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Btw, 940mb, 150mph at 5pm EST... Moving NW at 3mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I think this question about initialization misses the point that model evolution will be determined mainly by upper features and so if the 500-mb reflection of the hurricane is accurate, the surface errors may be irrelevant except in the first 48 hours possibly. This would probably be true more often when the errors are close to the equator (where the 500 mb anomaly might be more significant). Another point of interest, I have always believed that second-order wobbles in tropical system tracks are due to tidal forces between the moon and Sun. Today, the moon is following the Sun west (relative to points on the earth's surface) by about one hour since new moon was at 0011z. At the latitude of Matthew's core, the Sun was almost overhead at 18z and the Moon was somewhat further south at transit at about 19z. Tomorrow, if you want to check the wobble potential, the Moon will move over the hurricane around 2 hours after the Sun and will be relatively further south in its transit. If the storm is moving northwest at that point, this sequence should slow its forward motion and perhaps induce a brief jog east then west between 18z and 00z although without a loop. The research I am doing on this establishes an upper limit of 1.5 deg of lat or long to the second-order lunar signals. Larger and slower loops are probably not related to this interaction but are responses to steering environments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Someone in the SE forum posted the UKIE ensembles. Nearly every member had a US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Would be funny if this somehow ended up missing Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti...its remote but possible if it makes a NNE bend earlier than expected once it gets into the gap between Jamaica and Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 12z ECMWF ens mems track and intensity, a handful in to FL, a handful to close for comfort up the EC, and s simple majority stage right. Ensemble is doing a very poor job on the intensity for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 That intensity forecast is abysmal. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: That intensity forecast is abysmal. Good lord. Yes. Who done kicked the server the Euro resides on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 uhh why is the eps intensities relevant? Does anyone believe that the ec actually forecasts real sfc wind speeds for tcs? Even those 920mb monsters on the op it likes to spin up from time to time have 80 kt surface winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Interesting,I've seen little mention of the hurricane models, they both seem to bring it north and west close to coast.. irrelevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Interesting,I've seen little mention of the hurricane models, they both seem to bring it north and west coast to coast.. irrelevant? I think they all did that with Joaquin as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 They did but considering the huge bowling ball upper low last year was in the GOM flooding the Carolinas out, acted to eventually kick Joaquin out the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 18z gfs is west, going to skirt the nc coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: 18z gfs is west, going to skirt the nc coast this run. Looks pretty much the same as 12z to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Looks pretty much the same as 12z to me... Check out H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Check out H5 Yeah track wise same as 12z to NC, but looks like the trough might more fully phase and pull it truly inland into the Mid Atlantic this time. Edit: Didn't quite catch it for Mid-Atlantic, but it was closer. New England would still have to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 rakes the northeast thru 198hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 On this run, it's literally taking moisture from all directions. (except north) It even decimates the new tropical disturbance to it's east. talk about bloodlust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 if nothing else the GFS has been remarkably consistent over the past several runs with very little deviation in the overall setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Matthew seems to have stalled out a bit over the past hour? Wondering when we begin to see more marked northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Appears that Matthew may be undergoing another trochoidal wobble/ cyclonic loop... Currently has a remarkably tiny but clear eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 looks like Jr's sprouting some nice towers. tomorrow's visibles in general should look awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Officially listed as stationary for the 00Z intermediate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Good evening....new to the board. Have enjoyed reading this thread the past couple of days since this storm has potential to effect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said: Good evening....new to the board. Have enjoyed reading this thread the past couple of days since this storm has potential to effect us. WELCOME a"board"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 ERC beginning? The eyewall has looked like crap ok microwave imagery most of the day. I think I might be seeing a concentric eyewall starting to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW BARELY MOVING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 73.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: ERC beginning? The eyewall has looked like crap ok microwave imagery most of the day. I think I might be seeing a concentric eyewall starting to form Definitely looks like the feeder band is starting to wrap around the eyewall as a second eyewall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matty is trying to decide where he wants to go next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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