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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Looks like some kind of sup-tropical low is forecast to form on the ECMWF, which gives it a path to the east.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
 

Looks like it is developing the disturbance shown in the latest NHC Tropical Outlook. NHC is only giving that disturbance about a 20% chance over the next 5 days.

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Pretty big difference on the Euro at hr 168....rather large shift west.....

Definitely,  less ridging over the midwest and SE and more over NE. Doesn't even resemble yesterdays solution. Decent trend, but that ULL to the north, which models have been wildly still complicates things.

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13 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Looks like some kind of sup-tropical low is forecast to form on the ECMWF, which gives it a path to the east.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
 

Yeah seems to form just SE of Bermuda moves east but then retrogrades back to the NW in time to still yank Mathew out of here. Going to be a complicated interaction if that low is there and becomes a factor.

 

Anyone know when we will start seeing more G IV flights out over the Atlantic?

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1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Is it just me or does it seem like Matthew is weakening fast. Recon only finding up to 110 knot surface winds in eye wall.

There is probably going to be an eyewall replacement cycle soon. That's causing the weakening of the inner eyewall.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Is it just me or does it seem like Matthew is weakening fast. Recon only finding up to 110 knot surface winds in eye wall.

ERC and some shear. Judging by the symmetry of GFS precip maps, intensity might peak again in 48hrs.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_14L_8.png

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4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Shear didn't seem to bother Matthew before so why would it now.

Take it with a grain of salt. I see precip on the west side expanding on all models tomorrow so I that might be a sign of lower shear and resumed intensification.

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32 minutes ago, Amped said:

Definitely,  less ridging over the midwest and SE and more over NE. Doesn't even resemble yesterdays solution. Decent trend, but that ULL to the north, which models have been wildly still complicates things.

MBY is 100 miles west of Cape Hatteras....so I need the Euro/CMC to stay put and be right.....the GFS 12Z run would probably give me at least TS conditions maybe a few gust to 60-70 if its a Cat 1/2 so it all depends on how strong the storm is, how large the eye is etc...hate that I got even think about this crap in Oct......still think its gonna go east... would love to see the GFS move offshore a hundred miles or so....

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Some nice hot towers starting to pop on the west side.  Dry air has been trying to choke it off most of the day but Matty will have none of it.  Recon finding some nearly 170 mph just above the surface around 500 feet. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 10-15 mb drop over night.

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24 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

130 1322N 07311W 7431 02216 9560 +161 //// 158120 132 128 019 01

 

Recon found 128 knot surface winds. My guess is up to at least 125 knots by 5pm.

NHC is going with 130 kts at 5pm. 6z/18z RAOBS over eastern third of US starting tomorrow evening.

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lol

How about look at the current/real-time observations instead of biting my head off?



Serious question as I know very little.

Did the EPS initialize well? I know the parent run of the EURO seemed to initialize poorly. That said, Matthew seems to be moving NW now, so the EURO certainly seems to be doing well.
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5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

lol

How about look at the current/real-time observations instead of biting my head off?

Question how much using current obs matters right now given that EPS/GEFS show generally the same thing the next 48 hours as far as track/intensity go. 

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7 minutes ago, andyhb said:

lol

How about look at the current/real-time observations instead of biting my head off?

Care to elaborate on these observations that seem to point to early recurve? GFS, which is one of the furthest west models later in the period, has it turning north basically now. 

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