Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Looks like some kind of sup-tropical low is forecast to form on the ECMWF, which gives it a path to the east. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Pretty big difference on the Euro at hr 168....rather large shift west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 If the Euro eventually caves to the GFS then the east coast is in for a world of hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Looks like some kind of sup-tropical low is forecast to form on the ECMWF, which gives it a path to the east. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Looks like it is developing the disturbance shown in the latest NHC Tropical Outlook. NHC is only giving that disturbance about a 20% chance over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Pretty big difference on the Euro at hr 168....rather large shift west..... Definitely, less ridging over the midwest and SE and more over NE. Doesn't even resemble yesterdays solution. Decent trend, but that ULL to the north, which models have been wildly still complicates things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Not even in the same ballpark at the 00z run. The Euro passes close enough to the outerbanks to give them a buzz cut and then eventually makes landfall in Eastern Nova Scotia on day 9/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 13 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Looks like some kind of sup-tropical low is forecast to form on the ECMWF, which gives it a path to the east. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Yeah seems to form just SE of Bermuda moves east but then retrogrades back to the NW in time to still yank Mathew out of here. Going to be a complicated interaction if that low is there and becomes a factor. Anyone know when we will start seeing more G IV flights out over the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Is it just me or does it seem like Matthew is weakening fast. Recon only finding up to 110 knot surface winds in eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: Is it just me or does it seem like Matthew is weakening fast. Recon only finding up to 110 knot surface winds in eye wall. There is probably going to be an eyewall replacement cycle soon. That's causing the weakening of the inner eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Is it just me or does it seem like Matthew is weakening fast. Recon only finding up to 110 knot surface winds in eye wall. ERC and some shear. Judging by the symmetry of GFS precip maps, intensity might peak again in 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Amped said: ERC and some shear. Judging by the symmetry of GFS precip maps, intensity might peak again in 48hrs. Shear didn't seem to bother Matthew before so why would it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Lower OHC in the southern Caribbean may also be a contributing factor to the weakening trend. Much higher OHC values exist to the north and in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Lol spoke too soon... 190100 1315N 07312W 7507 02056 9487 +172 //// 173088 098 130 010 01 190130 1315N 07310W 7519 02126 9582 +157 //// 174120 129 124 030 01 Recon just found some 130 knot surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Shear didn't seem to bother Matthew before so why would it now. Take it with a grain of salt. I see precip on the west side expanding on all models tomorrow so I that might be a sign of lower shear and resumed intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 32 minutes ago, Amped said: Definitely, less ridging over the midwest and SE and more over NE. Doesn't even resemble yesterdays solution. Decent trend, but that ULL to the north, which models have been wildly still complicates things. MBY is 100 miles west of Cape Hatteras....so I need the Euro/CMC to stay put and be right.....the GFS 12Z run would probably give me at least TS conditions maybe a few gust to 60-70 if its a Cat 1/2 so it all depends on how strong the storm is, how large the eye is etc...hate that I got even think about this crap in Oct......still think its gonna go east... would love to see the GFS move offshore a hundred miles or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 pressure falling again. Peaked at 948 this morning, appears to be down to 944, maybe 942, but I cannot tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: pressure falling again. Peaked at 948 this morning, appears to be down to 944, maybe 942, but I cannot tell. Its definitely restrengthening, about has the center wrapped back up with storms should be good to go... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Wow...Look at the eye do a counterclockwise loop with the outer precip bands swinging around it from ne to nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 130 1322N 07311W 7431 02216 9560 +161 //// 158120 132 128 019 01 Recon found 128 knot surface winds. My guess is up to at least 125 knots by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Man that eye is super small! Clouds cooling on the NW side. organization looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: 130 1322N 07311W 7431 02216 9560 +161 //// 158120 132 128 019 01 Recon found 128 knot surface winds. My guess is up to at least 125 knots by 5pm. up or down? 128 vs. 125 ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Some nice hot towers starting to pop on the west side. Dry air has been trying to choke it off most of the day but Matty will have none of it. Recon finding some nearly 170 mph just above the surface around 500 feet. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 10-15 mb drop over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: up or down? 128 vs. 125 ???? Up, winds are at 120kts currently or 140mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 24 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: 130 1322N 07311W 7431 02216 9560 +161 //// 158120 132 128 019 01 Recon found 128 knot surface winds. My guess is up to at least 125 knots by 5pm. NHC is going with 130 kts at 5pm. 6z/18z RAOBS over eastern third of US starting tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 EPS consensus is overwhelmingly for a fish at this point. If the storm does start moving north now, that seems like a very prudent outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 16 minutes ago, andyhb said: EPS consensus is overwhelmingly for a fish at this point. If the storm does start moving north now, that seems like a very prudent outcome. So we just go with the eps and throw the other models out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: So we just go with the eps and throw the other models out? lol How about look at the current/real-time observations instead of biting my head off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 lol How about look at the current/real-time observations instead of biting my head off?Serious question as I know very little. Did the EPS initialize well? I know the parent run of the EURO seemed to initialize poorly. That said, Matthew seems to be moving NW now, so the EURO certainly seems to be doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: lol How about look at the current/real-time observations instead of biting my head off? Question how much using current obs matters right now given that EPS/GEFS show generally the same thing the next 48 hours as far as track/intensity go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, andyhb said: lol How about look at the current/real-time observations instead of biting my head off? Care to elaborate on these observations that seem to point to early recurve? GFS, which is one of the furthest west models later in the period, has it turning north basically now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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