downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS landfalls around Morehead City....through the sounds, terrible run for OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 12z...landfall near Cape Lookout, interesting. Somehow I have a hard time believing that this thing won't go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS does another ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 CMC fishes it though hard, has the LP NE of the Bahamas and follows it right on OTS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 There's your big difference. That little low pressure currently to the NE of Matthew pinwheels around and creates a pathway for Matthew much further NE than the GFS depicts. It isn;t until those two phase that the system finally jogs N, well N of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Joe4alb said: There's your big difference. That little low pressure currently to the NE of Matthew pinwheels around and creates a pathway for Matthew much further NE than the GFS depicts. It isn;t until those two phase that the system finally jogs NW, well N of the area Doesn't the CMC tend to go a little overboard with popping lows all over the place and over intensifying them? Either the GFS is on to something and its leading the pack in regards to the evolution of that lp or its doing horribly and will end up following the pack and be the last one to run the ots solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Ukie is even further west than the GFS . Right near Florida. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 10 minutes ago, downeastnc said: CMC fishes it though hard, has the LP NE of the Bahamas and follows it right on OTS.... The GGEM is notorious for turning a large thunderstorm into a hurricane. Until some other guidance agrees with it, I'd completely toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: CMC fishes it though hard, has the LP NE of the Bahamas and follows it right on OTS.... Looks like a lowering of pressure to the NE of Mathew when it's off the coast of FL caused a slight adjustment to the East, hence causing the missed phase and pull towards CONUS. All models with the exception of the 12z cmc and euro have phased the system. Almost a complete opposite of what happened with sandy. But the euro is still higher resolution and might be over-amplifying the ULL. Should have more clarity within the next 72 hours. The GFS did slide towards the CMC and Euro though, the sharpening trough over central CONUS is what saved Mathew from being tugged from the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: The GGEM is notorious for turning a large thunderstorm into a hurricane. Until some other guidance agrees with it, I'd completely toss it. I have to agree. The issue here is that the GFS solution is not relying that LP. In order for the CMC to be correct that LP has to not only maintain its strength but also its location and path, if it meanders NE of its projected path its effects will not be nearly as apparent on Matthew and thus Matthew will not be "pulled" NE as the CMC is indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Joe4alb said: I have to agree. The issue here is that the GFS solution is not relying that LP. In order for the CMC to be correct that LP has to not only maintain its strength but also its location and path, if it meanders NE of its projected path its effects will not be nearly as apparent on Matthew and thus Matthew will not be "pulled" NE as the CMC is indicating. Its not just the CMC though the Euro pretty much has the same low doing the same thing....reminds me a lot of Joaquin last year when the GFS went landfall and the Euro had that low tugging Joaquin NE from the Bahamas.....guess we will see what the Euro does here in a hr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GEFS tracks the storm right up the coast NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 snow showers here at 204 hr ....gfs. if verified, it would be a huge lake effect event for western PA , western NY as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Hurricane looks better on satellite than it did this morning. Eye is coming back out and strong convection is building back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Hurricane looks better on satellite than it did this morning. Eye is coming back out and strong convection is building back around. agreed, but it's movement is being weird. looks like it just did a llittle loop during the last 7 hours. barely moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: agreed, but it's movement is being weird. looks like it just did a llittle loop during the last 7 hours. barely moved. Isn't that common for storms that are in the process of making a rather sharp turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Isn't that common for storms that are in the process of making a rather sharp turn? sometimes. The way it looped though. little odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: agreed, but it's movement is being weird. looks like it just did a llittle loop during the last 7 hours. barely moved. Its called a trochoidal wobble...those generally happen when the convection is imbalanced, due to wind shear or an eyewall replacement cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 looks like it is going to do a little loop/stall it will likely start more north/turn soon after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Its called a trochoidal wobble...those generally happen when the convection is imbalanced, due to wind shear or an eyewall replacement cycle. The good news about the 'trochoidal' , gives more time for the convection to the east to wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 EURO looks like a swing and a miss wide right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Its called a trochoidal wobble...those generally happen when the convection is imbalanced, due to wind shear or an eyewall replacement cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Joe4alb said: That is an awesome example of trochoidal wobbles! Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Can't say I've seen this poor of an initialization before Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: EURO looks like a swing and a miss wide right again. Dunno, looks more similar to yesterday's 12z than today's 0z. Atlantic ridge building stronger and pushing Matthew to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I might have spoken too soon, but man it's initialized Matthew so poorly. Is The King suffering from a Joaquin kegger hangover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHarr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Can't say I've seen this poor of an initialization before As a near layman, what was poor about this initialization and what repercussions does it have for the rest of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 144hr Euro a major change from yesterday, big improvement in the H5 pattern but the stupid ULL may still push it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 As a near layman, what was poor about this initialization and what repercussions does it have for the rest of the run?Look at the wind field and how elongated it is. Supposedly the incredibly complex equations within the model will correct it (as they did by hour 6) but overall the storm would probably be a bit weaker Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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