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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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The developing low behind Matthew appears to be a difference-maker in the battle between the GFS and Euro.  The GFS says it won't be a player.  The Euro, however, develops this low more and moves it northwestward in tandem with Matthew, acting to weaken the western edge of the subtropical ridge and tug on Matthew.  Then, of course, the models continue to struggle with the energy from the eastern US upper low.  The latest Euro teams that energy up with the low to the east/northeast and acts to yank Matthew over Bermuda.  The GFS has both pieces of energy out of the picture, allowing Matthew to ride up the coast.

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39 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

Nice east shift seen on 6z gefs

 

6z GFS actually shifted east from it's 0z hit on Jamaica.  Now just seems to slide inbetween Haiti.    So this 6z GFS run was a shift east towards the Euro in a sense, at-least for the first 96 hours or so. 

Imagine if Euro beats all models again, like it did with Hermaine.  It was the first model to finally get things right, even though it was all over the place initially.

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11 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

6z GFS actually shifted east from it's 0z hit on Jamaica.  Now just seems to slide inbetween Haiti.    So this 6z GFS run was a shift east towards the Euro in a sense, at-least for the first 96 hours or so. 

Imagine if Euro beats all models again, like it did with Hermaine.  It was the first model to finally get things right, even though it was all over the place initially.

Euro also shifted way east. That model is struggling.

GFS has been showing many runs of a east coast hit. Still plenty of time for changes.

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32 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Sure it missed 1. We will see though. French model showing similar to the Euro, which is not surprising since it is based on the Euro with "improvements"

This will feed that folk tale that the EURO only misses when it looks good, and when its the fart at the party, it nails it. :lol:

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If the French model being spoken about is the "ARPEGE" or whatever, it hasn't been the absolute worst model around these parts in the Southeast during Winter.  Aside from some temperatures being forecast too cold for ice vs rain storm chances, overall evolution and storm tracks haven't been too badly off.   I know Ryan Maue had added it to his weatherbell site, but it's only for the European areas if I'm not mistaken.

If anyone was interested in this model, the best source I can think of is at http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=arpege   There is another source, but can't recall it currently.

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Remember guys, Euro has always had a history of being a bit too progressive with major systems.

Plus, it's not set on anything solid yet.   

..and just for shts and giggles , 12z NAM barely has any land interaction with Jamaica or Cuba thru 84..  Slips inbetween everything almost.  Maybe a slight hit on Guantanamo Bay...but stays over the water for most part.

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will be interesting to see if Matt can hang on and battle thru the next 12 hours or so...since the environment should improve thereafter.  And warmer waters as it nears Jamaica and thereafter.   Hot bathwater in parts of the bahamas too.

12z GFS started rollin.  Looks slower so far thru 36 hours.  (as expected, with a stronger than expected system)

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9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think Cuba will do a number on Matthew.  It will be a weak Cat 2 after leaving that area...  May redevelop into a 3...  I don't see anything past a 3 unless it flirts with 4 in the gulf stream.

If Matthew zips through the islands, the effects of terrain won't be so bad.  It will still take a bit but it won't kill the center.

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This GFS run has the trailing low not playing much role and the NE trough getting east faster...its a bit more east down in the Bahamas but actually might be further west up the coast....still a totally different look than the Euro....guess its to much to ask for these models to ever agree on anything more than a few days out....

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If Matthew zips through the islands, the effects of terrain won't be so bad.  It will still take a bit but it won't kill the center.

The GFS takes about 10-12 hours to fully cross eastern Cuba which has some fairly mountainous terrain. That's not exactly zipping.

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