hawkeye_wx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The developing low behind Matthew appears to be a difference-maker in the battle between the GFS and Euro. The GFS says it won't be a player. The Euro, however, develops this low more and moves it northwestward in tandem with Matthew, acting to weaken the western edge of the subtropical ridge and tug on Matthew. Then, of course, the models continue to struggle with the energy from the eastern US upper low. The latest Euro teams that energy up with the low to the east/northeast and acts to yank Matthew over Bermuda. The GFS has both pieces of energy out of the picture, allowing Matthew to ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 5 hours ago, cdhay17 said: I think Cuba as a cat 3, and Bahamas as a 2 are good bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Nice east shift seen on 6z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Nice east shift seen on 6z gefsYep, I think the old GFS bias of overamplifying/over phasing East Coast storms in the mid range was in play but it is starting to correct itself now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Satellite presentation shows the shear finally having a decent impact on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 39 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Nice east shift seen on 6z gefs 6z GFS actually shifted east from it's 0z hit on Jamaica. Now just seems to slide inbetween Haiti. So this 6z GFS run was a shift east towards the Euro in a sense, at-least for the first 96 hours or so. Imagine if Euro beats all models again, like it did with Hermaine. It was the first model to finally get things right, even though it was all over the place initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: 6z GFS actually shifted east from it's 0z hit on Jamaica. Now just seems to slide inbetween Haiti. So this 6z GFS run was a shift east towards the Euro in a sense, at-least for the first 96 hours or so. Imagine if Euro beats all models again, like it did with Hermaine. It was the first model to finally get things right, even though it was all over the place initially. Euro also shifted way east. That model is struggling. GFS has been showing many runs of a east coast hit. Still plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 If I am a betting man, I am going with the Euro. It is the King for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: If I am a betting man, I am going with the Euro. It is the King for a reason. Not recently Remember Hermine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Not recently Remember Hermine? Sure it missed 1. We will see though. French model showing similar to the Euro, which is not surprising since it is based on the Euro with "improvements" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I believe this low in the Atlantic will be the deciding factor. If you look at the GFS from last night, the low was much much further east and did not allow for a weakness in the ridge. It was this weakness that Matthew would escape through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Are we seeing an eyewall replacement, or is it just hiding it's eye right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, Shawn said: Are we seeing an eyewall replacement, or is it just hiding it's eye right now? The eye replacement would make sense with the hurricane losing a little strength. Also with the convection to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 22 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: I believe this low in the Atlantic will be the deciding factor. If you look at the GFS from last night, the low was much much further east and did not allow for a weakness in the ridge. It was this weakness that Matthew would escape through. Nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 32 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Sure it missed 1. We will see though. French model showing similar to the Euro, which is not surprising since it is based on the Euro with "improvements" This will feed that folk tale that the EURO only misses when it looks good, and when its the fart at the party, it nails it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This will feed that folk tale that the EURO only misses when it looks good, and when its the fart at the party, it nails it. That's a known item. EURO is the perpetual wet blanket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 If the French model being spoken about is the "ARPEGE" or whatever, it hasn't been the absolute worst model around these parts in the Southeast during Winter. Aside from some temperatures being forecast too cold for ice vs rain storm chances, overall evolution and storm tracks haven't been too badly off. I know Ryan Maue had added it to his weatherbell site, but it's only for the European areas if I'm not mistaken. If anyone was interested in this model, the best source I can think of is at http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=arpege There is another source, but can't recall it currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 New cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Well I hate for anyone who has a 7 day cruise lined up for next week.....and the Bahamas cant catch a break Joaquin last year and now Matthew..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Track archive thus far: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Back to major status by Thursday? Will the area be conducive to re-intensification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Remember guys, Euro has always had a history of being a bit too progressive with major systems. Plus, it's not set on anything solid yet. ..and just for shts and giggles , 12z NAM barely has any land interaction with Jamaica or Cuba thru 84.. Slips inbetween everything almost. Maybe a slight hit on Guantanamo Bay...but stays over the water for most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Euro has a deep bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 will be interesting to see if Matt can hang on and battle thru the next 12 hours or so...since the environment should improve thereafter. And warmer waters as it nears Jamaica and thereafter. Hot bathwater in parts of the bahamas too. 12z GFS started rollin. Looks slower so far thru 36 hours. (as expected, with a stronger than expected system) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I think Cuba will do a number on Matthew. It will be a weak Cat 2 after leaving that area... May redevelop into a 3... I don't see anything past a 3 unless it flirts with 4 in the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I think Cuba will do a number on Matthew. It will be a weak Cat 2 after leaving that area... May redevelop into a 3... I don't see anything past a 3 unless it flirts with 4 in the gulf stream. If Matthew zips through the islands, the effects of terrain won't be so bad. It will still take a bit but it won't kill the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 That low in the Atlantic seems to be moving out faster on the 12z GFS so far.. lets see if that prevents the weakness in the ridge I talked about earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 This GFS run has the trailing low not playing much role and the NE trough getting east faster...its a bit more east down in the Bahamas but actually might be further west up the coast....still a totally different look than the Euro....guess its to much to ask for these models to ever agree on anything more than a few days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If Matthew zips through the islands, the effects of terrain won't be so bad. It will still take a bit but it won't kill the center. The GFS takes about 10-12 hours to fully cross eastern Cuba which has some fairly mountainous terrain. That's not exactly zipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS really tucked into the coast this run. Goes right over the outer banks. Wasn't expecting that based off the 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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